Right now PS4 isn't dominating, so it entirely depends on the next 5 - 17 months and what both MS and Sony do. Nobody can say for sure who will win US.
Look, I understand you WANT something to happen in a certain direction, but we need to be realistic. Ok, now let's assume, 2014 is what it is (where PS4 outsells XB1 by at least 35% annually) which bring the market share to below 40% for XB1. For reference:
OVERALL USA 2014 Market Share based on VGChartz data
1st week: PS4: 51.8%, XB1: 48.2% (PS4 / XB1 : 1.076, PS4 = XB1 + 7.6%)
Aug 9 week : PS4: 54.5%, XB1: 45.5% (PS4 / XB1 : 1.212, PS4 = XB1 + 21.2%)
When you look at the ANNUAL data (regarding solely the 2014 data, excluding the launch window), you see a much more grave situation for xb1, where ps4 has been outselling xb1 in US by 39% in the first half of 2014. Yes, even according to the VGChartz data, Sony sold 39% more PS4 than XB1. So the overall gap (21% as of now) WILL INCREASE, not decrease; that is at least the TREND.
In 2015, even if we see a COMPLETE REVERSAL of 2014, even then the market share of XB1 will be BELOW 50%. You can come up with any creative math you like but there is no way to magically put XB1 on top of PS4 in US, by the end of 2015. Things do not happen in a vacuum, they are a function of their past. 2014 is mostly already predetermined by the first half of 2014. Part of 2015, we already know because of 2014. All those releases and whatnot can and will INFLUENCE to a degree, but not cause complete u-turns.
So even putting YOUR WILD OPTIMISIM FOR XB1 into a realistic statistic packet gives us no more than 50%.
Alright, I can have a rational conversation with you. Past trends have shown that the Xbox 360 would get a much bigger boost in the last quarter of the year when sales during Oct-Dec are almost 50% of the rest of the year. This is based on VgChartz numbers.
I'm saying that Xbox One will get a larger boost during the holidays and close the 670k gap that currently exists, due to the 2 special bundles and Halo MCC will be coming out, while PS4 does not have any eclusives on that level.
I'm not arguing it will happen overnight. But the most important time of year is coming up, the holiday 2014 period, when sales increase and in the past, Xbox has usually picke dup most of its sales during this period.
PS4 will continue to increase the gap in first half 2015, but when Halo 5 comes out, my opinion is it will be a system seller and Xbox will begin to win month after month in US. Halo 5 is a true system seller and appeals more to the US market. When all the people who are still on last gen are waiting to upgrade, many will choose Xbox. By the time June 2016 comes around, Xbox marketshare should be 55%
Alright, I can have a rational conversation with you.
=> Thank you. Also keep in mind that I was a big X360 fan last gen and did prefer X360 until the second half of the generation. Even though I do dislike Microsoft as a company, I have nothing against the XBOX brand.
Past trends have shown that the Xbox 360 would get a much bigger boost in the last quarter of the year when sales during Oct-Dec are almost 50% of the rest of the year.
=> I do agree that X360 got bigger boosts but this is because more than half of X360's sales were in US. Europe doesn't experience this level of fluctuation. This is a REGIONAL PHENOMENON, NOT CONSOLE-SPECIFIC. This generation, as I have already shown in my previous thread mathematically, Xbox will still get a bigger boost globally but because PS4 has a larger market share in US, holiday sales will have a very similar effect for PS4 in US as well (and remember, our focus is US here). So holidays will virtually do nothing favoring XB1's market share (since PS4 will have similar boosts).
the 2 special bundles and Halo MCC will be coming out, while PS4 does not have any eclusives on that level....
when Halo 5 comes out, my opinion is it will be a system seller and Xbox will begin to win month after month in US. Halo 5 is a true system seller and appeals more to the US market.
=> Well, both yes and no. You're wrapping a very subjective judgement based on a rational argument. It's true that Halo is a system seller but it was a system seller in the past overwhelmingly because of the user base and network effects, most of which is now gone. Many people who would play Halo already switched to PS4, which affects the people in their circles as well. Also Halo is not what it used to be. Yes, it is still system seller, but without being the poster child of the yore, its appeal is limited to a much smaller audience. Expect some motion, but not miracles. Also obviously being enchanted by the Xbox line-up, you don't wanna see the failure of the Titanfall hype and the relative ease with the success of "The Last of US". Many PS4 exclusives will just continue to surprise you, simply because it has a huge crowd who are supporting and behind it. Remember, the majority of the third party games already sell better on PS4. This is a spiral, which has never been broken in US history, and no signs of reversal either.
When all the people who are still on last gen are waiting to upgrade, many will choose Xbox. By the time June 2016 comes around, Xbox marketshare should be 55%
=> How do you know that people who are waiting are to going to an "XB1"? I mean, as a rational person, let's compare....
* Exclusives... may swing both ways... let's say 50-50, you may argue 40-60 in XB1's favor, understandable
* Third party... definitely PS4.... I don't think with a good heart anyone would prefer XB1 with 3rd party in mind. let's say 90-10
* Price.... not an issue anymore, let's say 50-50
* Game-focus and features (auto installation, online free games etc), let's say, 60-40 favoring PS4
* Network features... I can understand some XB1 bias in US, let's say, 40-60
* Network effects... More PS4 owners, more to come, let's say 60-40
* Media, fan hype .... Favoring XB1 on one side, bad publicity on the other, let's say 50-50
Depending on how strong these perceptions are, it may go either, right? But it would be very for a CLEAR MIND to see that this is a CLOSE CALL in THEORY. But you actually observe what is going on. Obviously the THIRD PARTY GAMES and the NETWORK EFFECTS have already decided the outcome. Maybe the prohibitive price and bad publicity has affected the XB1's fate in a bad direction, but this has been already negated by the price-and-hype-insensitive xbox fans who bought a XB1 at launch regardless. So what is happening in 2014 is a summary of what is gonna happen... And the effect of price gap also reveals itself... XB1 sales have gone up but sales are still lower than PS4. Overall, there is absolutely no sign of XB1 recovering its market share over 50% (just like I said 1 year ago!)
Those exclusives and other Xbox related boosts may give XB1 occasional victories and will probably decrease the annual sales gap. But they will decrease it from 39% to something more palatable like 25-30%, and that's it. PS4 will still sell more annually, and every year. That's what the market says, and that's what you get out from the little CRITERIA CHART above.