Ive been reading alot of things on here lately like TR exclusivity, MS getting a over 2 yr old Diablo 3 to run @1080p, and the ongoing XB1 vs WiiU sales war, but what i havent been seeing is how MS is going to get the XB1 to 80M WW and 40M in US.  There have been alot of claims that some how MS will hit a stride and get things going with there XB1 starting this holiday season but noone is really saying how this will occur.  Its very easy to see that MS XB1 will never achieve its sales of the 360 not even in US to understand this we have to get a little history lesson on how MS was able to do this with there 360.

MSs 360 was released in 2005 a full year earlier than the PS3 and Wii, gaming at the time i feel was on the uprise after the success of the ps2 when the 360 released it was the first HD console to plug in your new HD LCD TV it also brought online gaming and social gaming to the next level.  By the time the PS3 and Wii hit for most gamers there was really no reason to game on those platforms other than for exclusive games, the 360 had all the best 3rd party games and played them superiorly.  This gen the XB1 doesnt have anything new or innovative or released early anywhere in fact it has a delayed release in alot of areas WW and has been having alot of negative press on multiple issues with the console and MS as a whole.

The main reason why the XB1 wont achieve the sales of its predecessor that no one has talked about or thought of is that the last gen user base numbers are massively skewed even for both HD consoles.  The 360 doesnt not have 80M plus users WW or 40M in the US... not even close in fact its the most skewed  user base to sold units out of all three consoles last gen.  Its the most skewed for a few reasons it was reported to have a high of 54.2% failure rate and had failure issues from launch till 2009 thats 4 yrs.  It also was the only console to release a redesign that actually was superior to the original design which would give you a higher rate of re purchases.  As of right now it doesnt look like the XB1 is having any type of out of the norm failure rates rebuys will not be as dramatic.

In conclusion using this analogy if in reality there were only 50-60M live active 360 owners/fans WW last gen and if quite a few got a bad taste from the DRM 180s and inferior performance of the XB1 i believe that its going to be impossible for the XB1 to come close to the 360s sales performance anywhere around the globe... well expect for China and other areas where the 360 was not being sold

Yeah, the fact that many people had up to even 4 Xbox 360's due to RROD is never talked about for some reason.

MS also did a bad job transitioning to the X1 even without the horrid reveal. The 360's library was really dry ever since the Kinect came out and that left a bad taste in the 360 users' mouths. When the X1 was revealed more as TV box than a games console, it was basically the last straw for much of the 360 owners.

I had 5, they were all replaced for free. The free part is what I don't see anyone talking about when they mention rrod

MS offered a warranty extension to cover the replacement costs, though that wasn't until July 2007. They admitted that prior to the extension, 11.6 million 360's were faulty, so yeah... that's a ridiculously high number. Considering that the 360 launched in November 2005, it's safe to say that a huge chunk of the 11.6 million broke outside of the warranty. That was why MS decided to eventually extend it because the RROD problem was getting out of control.

People never talk about the high failure rate of fat PS3's(I had a 20 gig and a 60 gig fry on me well before 2010 as well as a 360) either. We dont know how this gens first gen hardware will turn out, I would hope MS learned its lesson.

OT: The vast majority of failed XBOXes were replaced under warranty. I think X1 wont sell as much cause they will lose some marketshare to PS4 for various reasons.

I don't think it'll achieve it without the online & multiplat advantage the 360 had last gen.

It won't even be close. It's European install base is going to crumble and in NA it's going to massively contract. The X1 will be lucky to hit 40 million lifetime.

Yes, sadly you're right.

correct PS3s did have issues i myself had the ylod on the launch 60gb and i believe alot of failures were from the phat ps3s as stated in OP i believe both consoles WW totals arent relevant to actual user base but more so 360, failure rate was much higher and rebuys from redesign where much higher.  PS3s redesign actually lost great features on each redesign, removal of touch sensitive buttons, removal of light up buttons, removal of slot loading disk, removal of B/C removal of 2 of of 4 usbs, and removal of memory card readers