I own both systems and it's pretty easy for me to pick one if I had to.

I'd go for the 3DS XL since it has an incredible library of games, and excellent support from Nintendo. And the games you are asking for, most notably, Fire Emblem Awakening, Pokemon X, Omega, Shin Megami Tensei 4, and Bravely Default are must have games for the system.

Probably 3ds, but the vita has a ton of great games in its back catalogue (psone, psp games). If you do get a 3ds, do yourself a favor and DO NOT get bravely default.

Bravely default is the most god awful game I have ever played.

As a Vita owner I would probably say 3ds. Vita's corner is looking kinda dark right now.

oh gregory.... Squre still loves you

3DS XL. You can experience Conception II on the 3DS as well, and there are a lot of good JRPGs coming out soon, if that's your cup of tea.

I recommend getting Vita used. I'll get Vita new eventually, if only to support the platform.

I'd say go for a 3DS.

I had a Vita for a little over a year. It has some really fun games. The problem is that it's not going to get much support in the future. If you really like some of the indies it's getting though, and you are comfortable with the bigger games on the system already, then I'd say go for it. If you want the far larger library, and one that will be supported in the future, I'd say go with the 3DS XL.

That's not to say the Vita is a bad system or anything. I personally loved Gravity Rush, LBP, Uncharted, and would have loved to play Tearaway and Killzone before I sold it. It's just that it probably won't have that much support in the future.

Conception 2 is also available on 3DS, and MGS 3 is available for 3DS in 3D (Not the HD collection, but something.

----

If those are the only games you're interested in, then I vote 3DS. Why? The 3DS games are longer, and more abundant. Bravely Default and Fire Emblem are both 60+ hours, meanwhile something like Soul Sacrifice and Tearaway are 10-20 hours.

The way I see it, 3DS is better for full pledged retail games, where Vita is better for PS1 Classics, and PSN titles. Both have classic, arcade & retail games, but one is better then the other.

---

Also some suggestions:

3DS: Tales of the Abyss, Resident Evil Revelations, Bravely Second, Monster Hunter IV, SMT: Devil Survivor

Vita: Tales of Hearts R, Grim Fandango HD

Multi: Zero Escape: Virtues Last Reward

Why not both? They are both great handhelds with good libraries. If you cant get both, get a 3ds xl (its cheap enough almost everywhere) and a ps+, start keeping a decent library of vita games and when you are ready, get the vita. Maybe you can get a good or cheap bundle during the holiday period or even next year.

3ds.
cos albw

I think your worries are valid. Although Sony already seems to have dropped support as they have nothing in development for the Vita anymore and are relying on third parties to support it. As for the 3DS Nintendo will continue to support it till the point when the next successor is released. Over all I would also say the 3DS has a better back library to pick from.