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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

(For the record, I'm fine if the site waits to adjust, for one thing pretty sure most people will just focus on Sony's announcement and assume VGC is wrong, so I don't think there's a lot of genuine harm occurring. I will admit I'm facepalming that this thing is still going oooon.)

Oooookay, Imma just haul out the direct quote from Gamescom's conference...

"I'm pleased to to announce that the install base of PS4 has now exceeded 10 million units globally. And just to be clear, that means 10 million PS4s sold through to consumers."

Now, let's break that down.

"...that the install base of PS4 has now exceeded 10 million units globally." They could have just said around ten million, even simply said 'reached ten million.' Big round number, that would be impressive enough, no need to exaggerate by tossing in something like 'exceeded' if they were so much as at 9.9 million. Granted, it's been years since I've been in a math class, but I'm pretty sure that, in rounding off numbers, you don't round from 9.9 to 10.1.

"Just to be clear, that means 10 million PS4s sold through to consumers." So, no, not shipped to retailers, again, VERY clear language.

If they are saying exceeded, if they are bothering at all to set the bar above the ten million rounded-off point, then it means they must be pretty confident with their numbers. If they are insisting that it is, indeed, to consumers, official terminology and all, then again, must be pretty darned confident in their numbers. And of course they don't have an exact number, they must have an estimate, probably even a range... but has nobody considered that, on this 'from x to y' estimate, even the lowest possible figure might be above ten million? Technically, anything from 10.001 to 10.999 million classifies as 'over,' and a benefit of rounding down is 1) round numbers are awesome and 2) you can make an 'eleven million sold' announcement even sooner, assuming Sony goes back to million-by-million announcements.

Now, if the defense being used is 'Sony is lying,' then fine, we can go off that, whatever. Let's face it, that particular thing wouldn't be confirmed or denied until someone sees whatever numbers Sony has, so if they're bluffing, then that's going to be up in the air. But it's pretty black and white. Either they had indeed exceeded 10 million, or they are lying about it, no wiggle room, no ifs, ands or buts, because they went out of their way to remove any wiggle room from their statement.

If Sony wanted to make a ten million announcement, but have an escape route if things went south, they could have done so... companies are very good at leading the public to believe one thing, while technically saying another. But they were careful, very careful, to burn those bridges in their wake, and ironically it was probably done to forestall the exact 'Sony is rounding up/talking shipped numbers/etc' discussions being had, because they were confident enough in their numbers to want to minimize that sort of thing.



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The blunt truth of the matter is its over 10 million, now as of Aug 10th it could have been 10,000,001 , but the point being they sold "over" being the key word.
Looking at where the sites tracking numbers are off in a region by region basis, really is not even the point right now, they were also shipping more than they would have sold through any way. Sony states " over " so how many above 10 million of the units are at retail store's above only about 600,000 in the retail channel, half a million, 300,000 how about only 40,000 units still in retail channels?



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Lastgengamer said:

Sure we now know that PS4 sold over ten million to customers, but moving forward can we expect to keep receiving these updates from the game companies? There is an advantage to tracking numbers the VGC way, as at least we will continue to have estimates of were everything stands in terms of sales at regular weekly intervals.

No, that's not the advantage of VGC.  The advantage of VGC is that they produce estimates much earlier than sources like NPD, so it is a useful early indicator with the trade off of being less precise.

Over the long term VGC is always adjusting to get on track with official and other authoritative sources.  It wouldn't be an advantage to stop adjusting and go off into the woods with the numbers.



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joeorc said:

would those numbers even really be upto date by the time he gets them?

They don't need to be up to date. If, in October, Sony finally gets around to sending additional information to ioi as of August 1st, VgChartz will be able to update the past sales data, as well as implement new ratios into their formulas for all future data that will result in more accurate reporting. As ioi said, however, you do not want to implement this before knowing the true breakdown as it will just result in a bigger mess.



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ioi said:
DonFerrari said:

My only question was that if you consider you to be closer with 440k in others or Sony with 1M, not that you correct randomly.

I can't really answer that question with any more certainty than I have tried to already!

Clearly we feel that 440k is a good estimate for MEAA based on all of the information we have (we are already using far higher extrapolation factors than we ever have for any previous platform) but Sony's data appears to contradict that. Therefore I'd suspect that the reality is probably somewhere between the two.

If Vgchartz didn't consistently correct PS4 sales by +20% when they got someone else's data in the past, you might have a point.   I am glad you want to figure out why you constantly underestimate PS4 sales though. 



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I can just show what I have here about Europe.

Germany 540,000 as of Jun 28, 2014: http://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/Sony-Aktie-Japaner-ziehen-in-Deutschland-mit-der-PS4-Microsofts-Xbox-One-davon-1000231563

Italy 220,000 as of Jun 26, 2014: http://www.e-duesse.it/News/Videogiochi/700-mila-console-next-gen-in-Italia-entro-la-fine-del-2014-173355

Spain 275,000 as of Jun 12, 2014: http://blog.es.playstation.com/2014/06/12/entrevista-james-armstrong/

 

I can check only Gemarny and it is ~40k undertracked... if the same happens with the others place then I guess most Europe is undertracked.

Yeap I believe VGC is undertracked in main Europe and not just MEAA.

BTW if PS4 is undertracked 10k in 50 of the 100 countries it is released then that is already 500k.

 



Baalzamon said:
joeorc said:

would those numbers even really be upto date by the time he gets them?

They don't need to be up to date. If, in October, Sony finally gets around to sending additional information to ioi as of August 1st, VgChartz will be able to update the past sales data, as well as implement new ratios into their formulas for all future data that will result in more accurate reporting. As ioi said, however, you do not want to implement this before knowing the true breakdown as it will just result in a bigger mess.

Why the hell should Sony send ioi additional information. It's OVER 10 million. That's all we need to know.



 

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ioi said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure sony estimate have errors, but since they didn't gave a exact number like 10.2M... just a over 10M i'm pretty sure their margin of error is small enough for us to accept 10M as good enough, or would you say your 600k under is closer to the "exact number" than Sony because of the sum of the 3rd parties tracker with your estimative of RofTW?

  • Our current estimate is 9.44m globally for the same point in time.
  • Compared to other trackers, our data is 110k higher than NPD in the USA, around 90k lower than GFK across Europe and in line with Media Create / Famitsu in Japan.
  • Therefore, I believe that 9m of our 9.44m (covering the Americas, Europe and Japan) is "accurate" or at least in-line with other, independent tracking services.
  • The remaining 440k that we have extrapolated (which covers MEAA) is likely to be low but how low and which weeks are we low - did we miss a big launch or have weekly sales been consistently much stronger in some of these key growing regions? Nothing in the user data we collect suggests that we are missing anything in these regions and until we can research the issue further and find where the discrepancy lies, we can't just start adding units at will.

 

Let me show an example of the dangers that could be faced by making indiscriminate adjustments.

If we assumed that exactly 10m units had been sold as of August 9th and that our 440k figure for MEAA should be more like 1m, then we could just apply a scale factor to those regions of 2.27 and would continue to scale our raw data for MEAA by 2.27 for PS4 from this point on.

Now, suppose that we (VGChartz and other tracking services) had actually undertracked PS4 sales in other regions or Sony had included demo and replacement units in the 10m, or had rounded up or some other unknown and in fact only 750k units had been actually sold in MEAA rather than 1m as we were assuming. In this case, our scale factor for MEAA should have only been 1.7 and all of our weekly data since this point will be inflated. If Sony were to then announce 12m units at a later date and we showed 12.3m units then we are basically getting ourselves into all sorts of complications and would probably then end up adjusting everything down which then makes the USA, Europe and Japan data incorrect and so on.

Making reactive and indiscriminate adjustments is a dangerous process and it is not something I am prepared to do just to keep a few forumgoers happy! Basically, until we can get a regional breakdown of Sony's 10m estimate (which I have asked for) and can compare like-with-like against our regional data, we don't know where and to what degree adjustments are necessary.


Nice to see you answering. It looks like a really tough situation. Good luck with that, I mean it.

Could it be that NPD, Media Create, Gfk and others are doing the same you're doing, using previous gen sales to make predictions, and the PS4 took everyone by surprise?

Another thing. Is there really anyone buying a PS4 (or an XB1) and not plugging it to internet? (a previous comment about how people in eastern europe, india or south africa don't necessarily have internet is... wow...)
If so, Sony (or MS) could just count how many people plugged their PS4 and connect to the update server. I guess that would be the most accurate numbers they could get.



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Bokal said:
ioi said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure sony estimate have errors, but since they didn't gave a exact number like 10.2M... just a over 10M i'm pretty sure their margin of error is small enough for us to accept 10M as good enough, or would you say your 600k under is closer to the "exact number" than Sony because of the sum of the 3rd parties tracker with your estimative of RofTW?

  • Our current estimate is 9.44m globally for the same point in time.
  • Compared to other trackers, our data is 110k higher than NPD in the USA, around 90k lower than GFK across Europe and in line with Media Create / Famitsu in Japan.
  • Therefore, I believe that 9m of our 9.44m (covering the Americas, Europe and Japan) is "accurate" or at least in-line with other, independent tracking services.
  • The remaining 440k that we have extrapolated (which covers MEAA) is likely to be low but how low and which weeks are we low - did we miss a big launch or have weekly sales been consistently much stronger in some of these key growing regions? Nothing in the user data we collect suggests that we are missing anything in these regions and until we can research the issue further and find where the discrepancy lies, we can't just start adding units at will.

 

Let me show an example of the dangers that could be faced by making indiscriminate adjustments.

If we assumed that exactly 10m units had been sold as of August 9th and that our 440k figure for MEAA should be more like 1m, then we could just apply a scale factor to those regions of 2.27 and would continue to scale our raw data for MEAA by 2.27 for PS4 from this point on.

Now, suppose that we (VGChartz and other tracking services) had actually undertracked PS4 sales in other regions or Sony had included demo and replacement units in the 10m, or had rounded up or some other unknown and in fact only 750k units had been actually sold in MEAA rather than 1m as we were assuming. In this case, our scale factor for MEAA should have only been 1.7 and all of our weekly data since this point will be inflated. If Sony were to then announce 12m units at a later date and we showed 12.3m units then we are basically getting ourselves into all sorts of complications and would probably then end up adjusting everything down which then makes the USA, Europe and Japan data incorrect and so on.

Making reactive and indiscriminate adjustments is a dangerous process and it is not something I am prepared to do just to keep a few forumgoers happy! Basically, until we can get a regional breakdown of Sony's 10m estimate (which I have asked for) and can compare like-with-like against our regional data, we don't know where and to what degree adjustments are necessary.


Nice to see you answering. It looks like a really tough situation. Good luck with that, I mean it.

Could it be that NPD, Media Create, Gfk and others are doing the same you're doing, using previous gen sales to make predictions, and the PS4 took everyone by surprise?

Another thing. Is there really anyone buying a PS4 (or an XB1) and not plugging it to internet? (a previous comment about how people in eastern europe, india or south africa don't necessarily have internet is... wow...)
If so, Sony (or MS) could just count how many people plugged their PS4 and connect to the update server. I guess that would be the most accurate numbers they could get.

maybe you should read my comment again please....

Really naive to believe that SOME african or eastern european countries where the PS is selling has alot of people with as much access to the internet as lets say people in London or in New York City. I never said the internet in these places is not there at all or that they are backward. I meant a lot less people use/ have access to the internet. that is a fact. it might be expenses or not really something they feel entitled to but that is the way things are sometimes. In 2013, Activision released a statement saying that of all the people who buy thier COD games each year, less than 10% of these people actually play the multiplayer. Could it be a number of factors? yes. But it isnt out of the ordinary to believe that most console gamers may not have good access to the internet especially in countries where gaming or smartphones or facebook isnt a top priority.

But I myself know places in the U.S (especially the some parts of the Midwest) where the internet can be extremely terrible. Why do you think many Americans actually took great offense to the previous CEO of MS saying that since the Xbox one needed to be constantly connected to the web, those who dont have good internet can always stick to their 360s? Because even here in the States, really good internet/WIFI can be a real treasure.

Didnt expect my statement to be taken out of context.  



ioi said:
ThatDanishGamer said:

How many PS4 consoles do you think SCEE sold in Scandinavia?

And why don't you add numbers for all these countries if you have  "very accurate" numbers.

We have full data breakdowns in VGC Pro. For PS4 we have 160k in Nordic countries.


Thanks.



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