(For the record, I'm fine if the site waits to adjust, for one thing pretty sure most people will just focus on Sony's announcement and assume VGC is wrong, so I don't think there's a lot of genuine harm occurring. I will admit I'm facepalming that this thing is still going oooon.)
Oooookay, Imma just haul out the direct quote from Gamescom's conference...
"I'm pleased to to announce that the install base of PS4 has now exceeded 10 million units globally. And just to be clear, that means 10 million PS4s sold through to consumers."
Now, let's break that down.
"...that the install base of PS4 has now exceeded 10 million units globally." They could have just said around ten million, even simply said 'reached ten million.' Big round number, that would be impressive enough, no need to exaggerate by tossing in something like 'exceeded' if they were so much as at 9.9 million. Granted, it's been years since I've been in a math class, but I'm pretty sure that, in rounding off numbers, you don't round from 9.9 to 10.1.
"Just to be clear, that means 10 million PS4s sold through to consumers." So, no, not shipped to retailers, again, VERY clear language.
If they are saying exceeded, if they are bothering at all to set the bar above the ten million rounded-off point, then it means they must be pretty confident with their numbers. If they are insisting that it is, indeed, to consumers, official terminology and all, then again, must be pretty darned confident in their numbers. And of course they don't have an exact number, they must have an estimate, probably even a range... but has nobody considered that, on this 'from x to y' estimate, even the lowest possible figure might be above ten million? Technically, anything from 10.001 to 10.999 million classifies as 'over,' and a benefit of rounding down is 1) round numbers are awesome and 2) you can make an 'eleven million sold' announcement even sooner, assuming Sony goes back to million-by-million announcements.
Now, if the defense being used is 'Sony is lying,' then fine, we can go off that, whatever. Let's face it, that particular thing wouldn't be confirmed or denied until someone sees whatever numbers Sony has, so if they're bluffing, then that's going to be up in the air. But it's pretty black and white. Either they had indeed exceeded 10 million, or they are lying about it, no wiggle room, no ifs, ands or buts, because they went out of their way to remove any wiggle room from their statement.
If Sony wanted to make a ten million announcement, but have an escape route if things went south, they could have done so... companies are very good at leading the public to believe one thing, while technically saying another. But they were careful, very careful, to burn those bridges in their wake, and ironically it was probably done to forestall the exact 'Sony is rounding up/talking shipped numbers/etc' discussions being had, because they were confident enough in their numbers to want to minimize that sort of thing.
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Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.