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Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: PS4 will outsell XBOX ONE+Wii U by end of year!

Aielyn on 16 August 2014
DerNebel said:
Aielyn said:
I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).

You kinda missed that teeny tiny fact that the PS4 is undertracked by around 550-600k here, if we average it out then the PS4 has sold 167k per week between April 6th and August 10th, and has thus outsold both combined almost every week.

OT: Let's say by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st) and we might be getting close.

If PS4 has been undertracked, it's possible that Wii U and/or XBO have also been undertracked. It's funny how people will point to one system being undertracked, but ignore the possibility of others being undertracked.

Also, you're averaging. It's possible it was undertracked on weeks that major releases happened, and not on the other weeks.

Besides which, I wouldn't be the least surprised if Sony was stretching the truth when they said "sold". It seems way too convenient that they were able to announce on the day of their Gamescom press event that they had just broken the 10 million mark - if they'd done it earlier, you can bet they'd have put out a press release immediately, given the milestone nature of 10 million. And since there's no solid, undeniable source for exact worldwide sales numbers, they can get away with such things. This isn't to say that they certainly lied or misled. But they're restricted by the same thing everybody else is - they can only get some of the numbers. They have to estimate, just like NPD, Famitsu, Media-Create, VGChartz, etc. What they do have access to that others don't is shipped numbers.



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Aielyn on 16 August 2014
black8jac said:
Aielyn said:
I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).


Well, actually according to VGC PS4 selling more than double Xbone+WiiU in 2014 worldwide, just check 2014 to date PS4 does over 58%.

Please don't waste time responding unless you read and understand what is being discussed first.

PS4 was selling a lot better before May. XBO and Wii U were selling a lot worse before end of May and middle of June, respectively (MK8 release and price cut, respectively). Year-to-date numbers do not reflect current trends.



VanceIX on 16 August 2014

Doubtful. MCC alone will prevent that from happening.



                                                                                                               You're Gonna Carry That Weight.

Xbox One - PS4 - Wii U - PC

Aielyn on 16 August 2014
Intrinsic said:
Aielyn said:

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).

While i agree with most of what you said I dont quite understand the bolded part especially with regard to how it applies in this generation.

This boosting thing... say the PS4/XB1 get a boost in sales of around 300% and the wiiU gets a bigger boost of 500%

300% boost for a console that sells on average 500k a month is 1.5M.

500% boost of a console that at best 150k per month on average is 750k

... "at best 150k per month"? What are you talking about? In June, Wii U sold over 350k. In July, it sold just over 250k. It has sold more than 150k every month this year except April.

Besides which, we're talking about WiiU+XBO vs PS4. If WiiU+XBO is selling slightly faster than PS4 per week now, and the PS4 and XBO both get boosts of around 300% for holidays, and Wii U gets a boost of around 500% for holidays, then WiiU+XBO will be selling significantly faster than PS4 over the holidays.

Also, PS4 hasn't sold less than 500k a month since launch. Its worst month so far is May, with 540k.

Context is important.



Intrinsic on 17 August 2014
Aielyn said:

... "at best 150k per month"? What are you talking about? In June, Wii U sold over 350k. In July, it sold just over 250k. It has sold more than 150k every month this year except April.

Besides which, we're talking about WiiU+XBO vs PS4. If WiiU+XBO is selling slightly faster than PS4 per week now, and the PS4 and XBO both get boosts of around 300% for holidays, and Wii U gets a boost of around 500% for holidays, then WiiU+XBO will be selling significantly faster than PS4 over the holidays.

Also, PS4 hasn't sold less than 500k a month since launch. Its worst month so far is May, with 540k.

Context is important.

Sigh... averages.

From january 2014 till end of july, using VG worldwide numbers, the wiiU has sold ~1.4M. If you divide that by 7 january to july thn you have 200k per month (this is an average). Yes this is more than what i said, but what i said for the PS4 is also a LOT less than what it actually does (PS4s average this year is actually at 685k/month). I was just rying to make a point.

I shaved off 150k for the wiiU to make my point and shaved off 180k for the PS4. Real numbers would be something like (using 300% for PS4 and 500% for wiiU)... PS4= 2.02M/month@300% boost and wiiU = 1M/month@500% boost.

and I was not talking about the wiiU+XB1. I jutst pointed out that i do not get this boost thing people always talk about in relation to wiiU sales as if they forget what average the boost is even affaecting. 

I singled out the wiiU, and went on to say what I dont understand and gave an example. Yet you are here talking about context?



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BeElite on 17 August 2014

Neither wiiu and X1 has anything strong enough out do PS4 being the PS4 this xmas. U for it improvement is to damn pricey to sale great, a cut is really needed it may help and not warrant a response from the comp. While f X1 drops Sony will match it quickly.



Aielyn on 17 August 2014
Intrinsic said:
Sigh... averages.

From january 2014 till end of july, using VG worldwide numbers, the wiiU has sold ~1.4M. If you divide that by 7 january to july thn you have 200k per month (this is an average). Yes this is more than what i said, but what i said for the PS4 is also a LOT less than what it actually does (PS4s average this year is actually at 685k/month). I was just rying to make a point.

I shaved off 150k for the wiiU to make my point and shaved off 180k for the PS4. Real numbers would be something like (using 300% for PS4 and 500% for wiiU)... PS4= 2.02M/month@300% boost and wiiU = 1M/month@500% boost.

and I was not talking about the wiiU+XB1. I jutst pointed out that i do not get this boost thing people always talk about in relation to wiiU sales as if they forget what average the boost is even affaecting. 

I singled out the wiiU, and went on to say what I dont understand and gave an example. Yet you are here talking about context?

So what you're saying is that you used wrong numbers to make a point?

And nobody here is trying to argue that the Wii U's boost will mean it's the best-selling system during the holidays - if you did understand the context, then you constructed a strawman to argue against. Even you don't deny the idea of the Wii U getting a stronger boost (percentage-wise), yet you try to make out as though this is some sort of false claim made by me (and others), in order to denigrate the Wii U and those who are optimistic about it.

EDIT: Oh, and regarding your "averages"... you conveniently ignore the fact that situations change. In the first four months, the PS4 had an average of 813k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 156k per month. In the three more recent months, the PS4 had an average of 565k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 271k per month. Do you see the difference? Where the PS4 was outselling the Wii U by more than 4x (total for PS4 was more than 5x that for Wii U), it is now outselling the Wii U by just a little over 100%... and that's including May, which was prior to release of Mario Kart 8. If you restrict attention to June and July, PS4 is at 513k per month, and Wii U at 278k per month.

Note that all numbers were taken with weeks ending in the respective month - so I'm using 28th of December to 26th of April for the first four months, for instance. This also means the most recent week of data is not included.



BeElite on 17 August 2014
Aielyn said:

So what you're saying is that you used wrong numbers to make a point?

And nobody here is trying to argue that the Wii U's boost will mean it's the best-selling system during the holidays - if you did understand the context, then you constructed a strawman to argue against. Even you don't deny the idea of the Wii U getting a stronger boost (percentage-wise), yet you try to make out as though this is some sort of false claim made by me (and others), in order to denigrate the Wii U and those who are optimistic about it.

EDIT: Oh, and regarding your "averages"... you conveniently ignore the fact that situations change. In the first four months, the PS4 had an average of 813k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 156k per month. In the three more recent months, the PS4 had an average of 565k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 271k per month. Do you see the difference? Where the PS4 was outselling the Wii U by more than 4x (total for PS4 was more than 5x that for Wii U), it is now outselling the Wii U by just a little over 100%... and that's including May, which was prior to release of Mario Kart 8. If you restrict attention to June and July, PS4 is at 513k per month, and Wii U at 278k per month.

Note that all numbers were taken with weeks ending in the respective month - so I'm using 28th of December to 26th of April for the first four months, for instance. This also means the most recent week of data is not included.


you are using vgc numbers ? ones that were adjusted to 7m a while back and now undertracked PS4 by 700k since then.

Saw some one redue the numbers as vg seems not to want to.

"Adjusted VGC PS4 : Apr-July

744K 
719K 
861K 
710K "

average 758k so its outsellingthe wiiu 2.8 - 1



Intrinsic on 17 August 2014
Aielyn said:

So what you're saying is that you used wrong numbers to make a point?

And nobody here is trying to argue that the Wii U's boost will mean it's the best-selling system during the holidays - if you did understand the context, then you constructed a strawman to argue against. Even you don't deny the idea of the Wii U getting a stronger boost (percentage-wise), yet you try to make out as though this is some sort of false claim made by me (and others), in order to denigrate the Wii U and those who are optimistic about it.

EDIT: Oh, and regarding your "averages"... you conveniently ignore the fact that situations change. In the first four months, the PS4 had an average of 813k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 156k per month. In the three more recent months, the PS4 had an average of 565k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 271k per month. Do you see the difference? Where the PS4 was outselling the Wii U by more than 4x (total for PS4 was more than 5x that for Wii U), it is now outselling the Wii U by just a little over 100%... and that's including May, which was prior to release of Mario Kart 8. If you restrict attention to June and July, PS4 is at 513k per month, and Wii U at 278k per month.

Note that all numbers were taken with weeks ending in the respective month - so I'm using 28th of December to 26th of April for the first four months, for instance. This also means the most recent week of data is not included.


The numbers were irrelevant... the POINT was that a large boost of shit sales can still be shit when compared to a smaller boost of good sales. Everything you are saying outside that is just semantics and could generally go both ways.

The point is that (as I am yet again pointig out for the third time) when people say nintendo (wiiU) has bigger holiday boosts... WHICH I AGREE WITH> I wonder if they look at what is being boosted and look at what its competing against and whatever relative boost its competition will get. That was the point I was making. Don't know how this became what it is now and i made all this clear.

And isn't it weird that the basis of your things changing argument is comapring the best wiiU moths to the worst Ps4 months? Thats all well and good, but if we apply the whole boosting thing to the months you seem to be "optimistic" about; then by all means, that does mean the wiiU will be the best selling console this holiday season. If that is not what you are saying... pls tell me how that is relevant to the point i was trying to make to begin with.

oh, and as accurate as ur numbers are, did you factor in that VGC undertracked the ps4 by 700k?



Aielyn on 17 August 2014
BeElite said:
Aielyn said:

So what you're saying is that you used wrong numbers to make a point?

And nobody here is trying to argue that the Wii U's boost will mean it's the best-selling system during the holidays - if you did understand the context, then you constructed a strawman to argue against. Even you don't deny the idea of the Wii U getting a stronger boost (percentage-wise), yet you try to make out as though this is some sort of false claim made by me (and others), in order to denigrate the Wii U and those who are optimistic about it.

EDIT: Oh, and regarding your "averages"... you conveniently ignore the fact that situations change. In the first four months, the PS4 had an average of 813k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 156k per month. In the three more recent months, the PS4 had an average of 565k per month, and the Wii U had an average of 271k per month. Do you see the difference? Where the PS4 was outselling the Wii U by more than 4x (total for PS4 was more than 5x that for Wii U), it is now outselling the Wii U by just a little over 100%... and that's including May, which was prior to release of Mario Kart 8. If you restrict attention to June and July, PS4 is at 513k per month, and Wii U at 278k per month.

Note that all numbers were taken with weeks ending in the respective month - so I'm using 28th of December to 26th of April for the first four months, for instance. This also means the most recent week of data is not included.


you are using vgc numbers ? ones that were adjusted to 7m a while back and now undertracked PS4 by 700k since then.

Saw some one redue the numbers as vg seems not to want to.

"Adjusted VGC PS4 : Apr-July

744K 
719K 
861K 
710K "

average 758k so its outsellingthe wiiu 2.8 - 1

Please don't jump into discussions part way through and put forward arguments that are irrelevant to the discussion.

And especially don't do so by using fabricated numbers determined by just scaling the existing numbers - that's not how overtracking and undertracking happens. And I also can't help but notice that you're using Sony's "official" numbers for PS4, but then using VGChartz numbers for Wii U. If you reject VGC numbers as unreliable, then you can't pick and choose which numbers to reject. Wii U could also be severely undertracked, for all you know.