Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: PS4 will outsell XBOX ONE+Wii U by end of year!

Meanwhile, 3DS > PS4 + XB1 + Wii U + Vita

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Blouge said:
Meanwhile, 3DS > PS4 + XB1 + Wii U + Vita

Meanwhile the 3DS launch in February 2011... might as well say:

PS3> 3DS + PS4 + X1 + Wii U + Vita

wary-wallaroo said:

It'll happen by the end of this year I think. X1: 7.5 million, Wii U:8.5 million, PS4: 16-18 million

You predict 8.5 million Wii U???

Hem, Wii U sell 60,000 in one normal week (For NPD is overestimate only for 2,500), so, in 20 other week of year, 60,000 x 20 = 1,200,000

6,900,000+1,200,000= 8,100,000 ?

You think that the boost of holiday will be only 400K?

I rememer you that Wii U have sold little less that 400K only the week before Chrismas 2013.

Not by the end of the year, no. I realize that the PS4 has been under-tracked here and that it will surpass my previous prediction of 15m by January 1st 2015, but I stand by my statement that it won't be at 18m+ by that time.

hehe No -_- The Wii U has SMASH BROS... FUCKING SMASH BROS... thats the only reason why that wont happen

Aielyn said:
I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).

Well, actually according to VGC PS4 selling more than double Xbone+WiiU in 2014 worldwide, just check 2014 to date PS4 does over 58%.

Just think how this gen is going to get going when WiiU is $199, PS4 is $299, and X1 is $249. It's going to be nuts.

FWIW I think U will get price cut the first, if they can get a decent SKU out this fall for $199, they'll REALLY surprise people. At that price it's basically an impulse buy, and an awesome companion system for anyone already with an X1 or a PS4.

Then X1 obviously. The $399 SKU gave them a bump for a brief period, but they're certainly falling back rapidly to the very baseline which caused them to go back on the 'always kinect/kinect IS Xbone' promise' to deliver $399. This depends on the holiday sales, but I don't think the X1 @ $399 will do all that well this fall. Their biggest chance of success sadly is PS4 shortages forcing gamers to settle for X1 (those shoppers that want PS4 as top choice, but are willing to buy in for an X1, not saying that if someone genuinely wants an X1 that they're 'settling').

So maybe $349 or $299 early 2015 for X1 unless Microsoft wants to shock everyone, but the announced $399 and $499 bundles seem to strongly indicate that we're not going to see sub $399 this year for X1.

PS4 will be last to fall, but I can't see them going into holiday 2015 @ $399. If this holiday season sales are so strong that they have more shortages (very possible to even probable honestly given global demand), then $399 makes sense to hold onto this year. If production capacity was higher, there would be a strategic advantage to surprise dropping to $299 long-term. But 99.5% sure that we're going to see solid $399 this year, maybe best case a pack-in game or extra around BF.


I guess I kind of got sidetracked there, TLDR :

I think PS4 could very well sell 18M *IF* they could produce that many for the high demand weeks. That's doubtful though.

Long-term, this gen will surprise people. Most customers buy in when the prices are better, and $399 is too much for the majority of the market. Sales will open up like a floodgate at $299 and under, and WiiU will get a solid second wind at $199.

gcube2000 said:
hehe No -_- The Wii U has SMASH BROS... FUCKING SMASH BROS... thats the only reason why that wont happen

Smash Bros and so???

How much will sell Wii U with Smash Bros???

I said 10.5 million, you said 10.7 million, agree?

So, if sell like we predicted, XO + Wii U will sell less than 19m combinated... PS4 will sell more.

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Easy as its comp is in gc situation. Price cuts wi have llitte effect as ps4 like ps2 is the only choice for majority customer that will buy this gen.