Just think how this gen is going to get going when WiiU is $199, PS4 is $299, and X1 is $249. It's going to be nuts.

FWIW I think U will get price cut the first, if they can get a decent SKU out this fall for $199, they'll REALLY surprise people. At that price it's basically an impulse buy, and an awesome companion system for anyone already with an X1 or a PS4.

Then X1 obviously. The $399 SKU gave them a bump for a brief period, but they're certainly falling back rapidly to the very baseline which caused them to go back on the 'always kinect/kinect IS Xbone' promise' to deliver $399. This depends on the holiday sales, but I don't think the X1 @ $399 will do all that well this fall. Their biggest chance of success sadly is PS4 shortages forcing gamers to settle for X1 (those shoppers that want PS4 as top choice, but are willing to buy in for an X1, not saying that if someone genuinely wants an X1 that they're 'settling').

So maybe $349 or $299 early 2015 for X1 unless Microsoft wants to shock everyone, but the announced $399 and $499 bundles seem to strongly indicate that we're not going to see sub $399 this year for X1.

PS4 will be last to fall, but I can't see them going into holiday 2015 @ $399. If this holiday season sales are so strong that they have more shortages (very possible to even probable honestly given global demand), then $399 makes sense to hold onto this year. If production capacity was higher, there would be a strategic advantage to surprise dropping to $299 long-term. But 99.5% sure that we're going to see solid $399 this year, maybe best case a pack-in game or extra around BF.

Yeap.

I guess I kind of got sidetracked there, TLDR :

I think PS4 could very well sell 18M *IF* they could produce that many for the high demand weeks. That's doubtful though.

Long-term, this gen will surprise people. Most customers buy in when the prices are better, and $399 is too much for the majority of the market. Sales will open up like a floodgate at $299 and under, and WiiU will get a solid second wind at $199.

Smash Bros and so???

How much will sell Wii U with Smash Bros???

I said 10.5 million, you said 10.7 million, agree?

So, if sell like we predicted, XO + Wii U will sell less than 19m combinated... PS4 will sell more.

Easy as its comp is in gc situation. Price cuts wi have llitte effect as ps4 like ps2 is the only choice for majority customer that will buy this gen.

It's possible. Right now I don't think it will happen, but if PS4 does exceptionally well, or Wii U or XB1 do more poorly then it will happen.

For this to happen, the PS4 has to sell more than 8.5 - 9M consoles between now and 1st january 2015. And thats assuming that the WiiU is at 10M then and the XB1 at 8M.

Even if it could sell that well (which i dont think it will), I doubt sony will be able to make 9M PS4s between now and then.

you realize wii u is at 7m right now, right?

PS4 won't sell 18 million or more. My prediction was adjusted up because of the under tracked sales of PS4. It will do 18 million tops. Wii U= 10.7m + XB1= 9.1m

That adds up to Wii U and XB1= 19.8m vs PS4= 17.4m

I say no

18.5 million PS4, 9.5 million XB1, 11 million Wii U.

Those are all the best possible scenarios I can put up. I don't see PS4 outselling both combined Life -to-Date by end-2014. However, it seems all the more likely by end-March 2015.

While i agree with most of what you said I dont quite understand the bolded part especially with regard to how it applies in this generation.

This boosting thing... say the PS4/XB1 get a boost in sales of around 300% and the wiiU gets a bigger boost of 500%

300% boost for a console that sells on average 500k a month is 1.5M. 

500% boost of a console that at best 150k per month on average is 750k