Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: PS4 will outsell XBOX ONE+Wii U by end of year!

Aura_Warrior said:

No, regardless of the year.

So, you think that PS4 don't will sell more of XBOX ONE+Wii U lifetime?



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dont think so.

wii u will have a stron holiday in japan and decent one in the us
xbox one a strong in the us and tier 2 launch (yeah it wont sell any units there, because u can already buy it)

so ps4 need an incredible holiday in the us and eu, to sell the same amount as wiiu + xb1 and even 2m units more



and for lifetime, it all depends on the wiiu, if ps4 can manage 50% marketshare


drake_tolu said:
Aura_Warrior said:

No, regardless of the year.

So, you think that PS4 won't sell more than XBOX ONE+Wii U lifetime?

correct.



I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).

Yes, we're almost there already.

Based on here or based on announcements?

It might happen, but for now I will say "no"!



                
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I'd say Wii U + Xbox One will finish this year somewhere between 17m and 19m, most likely 18m. PS4 reaching those numbers before the end of the year is very possible, but I'd say it'll fall just a little bit short of that.

I am convinced that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is the greatest movie ever and people just don't want to accept it.

Probably not this year but wouldn't surprise me if it was next year

             

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Aielyn said:
I doubt it. In order for it to achieve that result, it has to outsell XBO+WiiU weekly enough to push it over the limit. And with the exception of weeks where a significant game releases, it hasn't been doing so.

The most recent week of data has PS4 easily selling better... but that's because TLOU:R released. In the week before that, PS4 sold roughly as much as XBO+WiiU, with none of the systems getting a notable game. Same the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that (and in that week, PS4 had a new game release in 11th on the chart), and the week before that (PS4 had a position-1 title that week), and the week before that. Indeed, with the exception of the most recent week, the last time PS4 outsold XBO+WiiU was in the week before the XBO price cut.

Now, you can assert that PS4 will have more notable games... but so will both XBO and Wii U. Which means it'll likely come down to how much of a boost each system can get during the holidays... and Nintendo systems typically get stronger boosts from the holidays, and Wii U is getting Smash. As such, it will be a challenge, in my opinion, for PS4 to manage to outsell the combination of Wii U and XBO for the remainder of the year (I'm not saying Wii U will sell exceptionally well, but its improved strength means that PS4 has to outperform XBO by more than it otherwise would have).

You kinda missed that teeny tiny fact that the PS4 is undertracked by around 550-600k here, if we average it out then the PS4 has sold 167k per week between April 6th and August 10th, and has thus outsold both combined almost every week.

OT: Let's say by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st) and we might be getting close.