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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 by the end of 2014 > Xbox One by the end of 2015

 

Agree?

Yes 240 69.57%
 
No 104 30.14%
 
Total:344

I actually don't think so, but we'll see.



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Wouldn't next year be the biggest year of the consoles in terms of sales (or would that be the 3rd year)..???

I think it is certainly possible that PS4 2014 sales will be bigger than XBO's end of 2015, I don't think the XBO will have its best year until 2016.



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JudasKiss said:
Some of these PS4 predictions are becoming ridiculous. Soon I expect to see a "PS4 will outsell PS2 and DS combined" thread.


It's not ridiculous at all, few months ago, people found ridiculous to think PS4 could reach 17M, now it's a given.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

I don't know what to say. This is too close to call. Please bump this thread next year so we can see with more up to date numbers!



I see ps4 at 18-20M end of 2014 and x1 15-20M end of 2015 at most. So safe bet for ps4. Another possible bet is ps4 end of 2015 bigger than X1 ltf.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Mummelmann said:
Groundking said:

IO think you're being too optimistic for the XBO, and negative on the PS4. XBO will be down/flat in Europe and ROW next year, and you think that we'll have 5-6 million sells in the USA for XBO? (Which is about what you'll need to get 9 mill a year, whilst being optimistic about Europe + ROW) Despite the fact that the PS4 is winning (often substantially) in the USA, which just leads to hive mentallity, which will only worsen the situatuion for the XBO. And it's not even like price cuts are an option at this point, as they've left it far too late for it to be uncomfortable for Sony to drop the price the XBO needs to drop to have a good fight. It needs a $150 price drop after christmas when Bloodborne + The Order drop to not get devoured by the PS4 (Which will sell 20mill+ in 2015).

I agree with op, I see 8mill tops for XBO at the end of this year, and 15 mill tops by the end of 2015. PS4 will be 17.5mill most likely by the end of this year. (37.5 mill end of next year).


Why would the One be down or flat in Europe next year? It had a slow year with a high price for Q1 and Q2 and few software hits for Europe besides FIFA, it has shown improvement in the UK and there is nothing to suggest that it will show a (near) unprecedented drop in Europe next year, there simply is no data supporting such a view, it is practically unheard of for a console not to experience growth in any major territory in their second CY.

The One has about 1.6 million in the US alone in 2014 and still has all of Q4 ahead of it, the 360 has over 50% of its lifetime sales in this region and the One has an even bigger percentage and has shown some potential here. The 8th gen has just gotten started, it is not unlikely at all that the One will sell another 2-2.2 million in the US this year, with Black Friday being a huge occassion and some big software inbound. Doesn't take a whole lot of growth to get to 5 million, certainly not anything beyond completely normal for second CY for home consoles. You seem to suggest with your "hive mentality" statement that the One might even be down in NA for 2015, which is beyond ridiculous.

You think there won't be any growth globally for the One in 2015? It is also finally available everywhere, and even though that won't make up millions; it'll at the very least make up several hundred thousand.

8 million tops for One at the end of this year?! You actually think it will sell only about 170k per week on average for all of Q4?! That is only slightly above the Wii U in 2013's Q4 (which was about 1.9 million and the most atrocious second holiday of any home console in 20 years or so). And that is somehow more realistic than my take on it? Needless to say; I strongly disagree with that notion, BF week alone should be at least in the 500k range. 15 million for the One by 2015 implies practically no growth; that is unheard of in the industry, heck: even the Wii U has been up a great deal in its second CY (40-50% is likely when the year is over). And PS4 selling 20 million next year? 50%+ up yoy? How is that realistic? Japan refuses to buy home consoles overall so this would put a lot of strain on other markets to make up all that growth.

I honestly don't understand how you're thinking here; you may disagree with me if you wish but your alternative proposal is incredibly unrealistic and founded on several cirucumstances that fly straight in the face of all we know about console sales and the gaming market. You are more less or less proclaiming that the Xbox One is dead since it won't follow normal growth in 2015 and expecting the same growth for the PS4 in its second CY as the Wii, despite the massive casual drive it had, low price and severe supply constraints for the entire first CY on the market. There is not an iota of data supporting anything you're saying here, you're going to have to construct a really, really compelling argument for how it will all be possible.

Man you have been overestimating x1 and understimating ps4 from before the beggining of the gen and proven wrong all times.

how is X1 seeling 3,1M in 2013, 2,7M so far this year (and giving 3M for holidays which would make it more growth than expected) and then giving 7M for X1 be no growth?? Of course X1 could do better than that, but saying 7 or 8M for next year isn't flat numbers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Troll_Whisperer said:

I

Consoles usually sell about 50% of their units in any given calendar year during the last calendar quarter.

That means Q4 = Q1 + Q2 + Q3.

PS4 will have sold a bit over 6m in Q1/2/3. So we can add 6m for the rest of the year and get about 16m PS4s sold by the end of 2014.

 

Now, as for Xbox One. For the purpose of this prediction I'm going to be extra generous to it, just to prove that I have a pretty wide margin to win this.

It has sold 2m consoles so far this year. If we do the same math and add 2m, that gives us 7m by the end of 2014. But let's make it 8m. That means 5m sales per year.

I definitely agree with the OP statement, but...


Doesn't Q4 starts in October?

If yes, then PS4 has 7M Q1/2/3 and XB1 has 2.7M Q1/2/3.

So, by your math, that would mean end of 2014: 18.4M for PS4 and XB1 8.5M.

Where am I wrong?



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I think that's very possible, but many people will flame in my school me if I put that on my blog.



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I can beat more games on his 3DS than he can on my PSVita in a month. Loser has to buy the winner a game on his/her handheld Guess who won? http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=193531

Me!

Nah Xbox one will do 9 million next year with quantum, halo, gears and a pricecut so I guess it will've 17.500.000 units sold PS4 won't get that many sales during this holiday due to the lack of the order 1886. PS4 marketshare could be more than 50% at 2015 end though.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Xb one will be closer to 8 or 9 million by the end of the year by the look of things. And next year it should sell another 8 or 9 million. So end of 2015 could be up to 18 million all going well. I don't see PS4 doing 18 million end of this year.



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