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Prediction: Xbox One Will Have a 10 Million Lead over Wii U by the. End of 2015

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Xbox One Will Have a 10 Million Lead over Wii U by the. End of 2015

Aura_Warrior said:

your post was going well untill that part.

Why? I honestly think that with MK8 and Smash that this will be the peak year for the system. A price cut later this year or sometime next will help slow the decline. It was sitting at 5.4 million LTD at the end of last year. At the rate it's going, it'll probably sell around 4 million this year (though that's a minimum; I'd be willing to go as high as 5 million if Smash proves to be a big enough system seller). That would put it at about 9.5 million. If it sells 3.5 million next year (a small YoY decline of 12.5% from the assumed 4 million), that would put it at 13 million LTD by the end of 2015 (again, that's a minimum; 15M would be my absolute upper limit). Is it possible that it experiences YoY growth next year, thus making 2015 the peak? Sure, but I doubt it.



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Shadow1980 said:
Aura_Warrior said:

your post was going well untill that part.

Why? I honestly think that with MK8 and Smash that this will be the peak year for the system. A price cut later this year or sometime next will help slow the decline. It was sitting at 5.4 million LTD at the end of last year. At the rate it's going, it'll probably sell around 4 million this year (though that's a minimum; I'd be willing to go as high as 5 million if Smash proves to be a big enough system seller). That would put it at about 9.5 million. If it sells 3.5 million next year (a small YoY decline of 12.5% from the assumed 4 million), that would put it at 13 million LTD by the end of 2015 (again, that's a minimum; 15M would be my absolute upper limit). Is it possible that it experiences YoY growth next year, thus making 2015 the peak? Sure, but I doubt it.

the wii u will sell quite more than you think in 2014. and the 2015 sales will be higher than in 2014.



how is xbox lineup look like?

 

Aura_Warrior said:

"the 2015 sales will be higher than in 2014"

With which game ? The best system sellers of the WII U are Mario Kart and Smash and I don't see which other game can improve the sales in 2015.



lol

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Svengoolie said:

Toastboy is obviously trolling because nobody would actually believe this. Xbones are at 5 million now, if the charts are to be believed. So you think they're going to magically sell 7 million consoles in the next 4 months. There's no way you think that.

 

User was moderated for this post - Conegamer

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eva01beserk said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
toastboy44562 said:

Xbox One should be at 12 million by the end of 2014

Wii U will be at 10 million by the end of 2014

 

Xbox One should be at 24 million by the end of 2015

Wii U will be around 13-14 million by the end of 2015

 

Xbox One will have a lead of ten million by the end of 2015!

That's one optimistic prediction you got there. Let me fix that with more conservative numbers.

XB1:

Let's take the 7 million you have and chop it down to 4 million. I expect that the XB1 is at 5.5 million now. So, 5.5 million with multiplats and some exclusives including Halo: MCC. Let me tell you why I think this is a conservative estimate: Halo MCC will dilute the impact of Halo 5 next year. That makes some 9.5 million XB1s. Quite a number we have there.

Now, let's cut down XB1 to just 8 million next year. Why, you ask? By what you're thinking, this seems like a conservative estimate. But, hear me out. The effect of Halo 5 will have been diluted by the success (or failure) Halo MCC will turn out to be.

So, as a compromise between our sales predictions (I expect 16 million for XB1 by end-2015, but I'm still working out the kinks in my prediction), let's say 18 million for XB1.

WiiU (NWU):

10 million is conservative for Wii U. You're underestimating the impact Japan has on the baseline. They'll add, like, 400k sales by year-end, but don't mind me :p

Considering the games coming out for Wii U (and Smash 3DS effects), I expect 4 million between now and year-end. I'm thinking of having 6.5 million Wii Us in households right now, so 10.5 million.

2015? I can draw up a prediction for you. It's called having a 60k/week minimum baseline all year round (overall average 90k/wk). That leads us to roughly 5 million Wii U units sold. So, uh, I think we'll see 4.5 million units. That leads us to 15 million.

I still hope the Wii U sells better than XB1, until Zelda U drops.

I think your numbers for next years wii u is still to little. They have hinted that they have a few other deals like devils third coming next year plus all the heavy hitter coming to the wii u like x, starfox, zelda and the big remake anouced. Next year I do think that we will see at least a 50% increase for the Wii U so like 6-7.5m in not out of the question.


Didn't I say I used conservative numbers? I actually expect 11 million (Japan will contribute 500k) by end-2014 for the Wii U. That says a lot

I'm going to hang onto my conservative esraimate for next year, though. 5-6 million Wii U sold through.



 
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MonkeyDLuffy said:
Svengoolie said:

Toastboy is obviously trolling because nobody would actually believe this. Xbones are at 5 million now, if the charts are to be believed. So you think they're going to magically sell 7 million consoles in the next 4 months. There's no way you think that.

 

User was moderated for this post - Conegamer

Can someone PLEASE tell me what was wrong with that post and what would cause someone to be banned for it?


Haven't you read the Forum Rules yet? It explicitly states that calling someone a "Troll" can get you banned.

Oh, and there are lots of other things in there, too. Everyone should give it a read sometime.



 
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COX said:
Aura_Warrior said:

"the 2015 sales will be higher than in 2014"

With which game ? The best system sellers of the WII U are Mario Kart and Smash and I don't see which other game can improve the sales in 2015.

Games, plural. how about? the nine exclusives already announced, wich include zelda? smash and mario kart have everlasting effect. people should stop ignoring that fact.



Aura_Warrior said:
COX said:
Aura_Warrior said:

"the 2015 sales will be higher than in 2014"

With which game ? The best system sellers of the WII U are Mario Kart and Smash and I don't see which other game can improve the sales in 2015.

Games, plural. how about? the nine exclusives already announced, wich include zelda? smash and mario kart have everlasting effect. people should stop ignoring that fact.

 I hope you are right but I don't think that the effect of MK/Smash will be stronger in 2015 than 2014 and Zelda is a amazing franchise but it's not bigger than MK/Smash.