Uncharted 4 + The Order, BloodBorne, DriveClub, LBP3, Alenation, No Man's Sky, Wild, Destiny + GTA5 exclusive content, all the other indies, and all the other titles that could potentially be out by then like GT7, SSM's new game, Guerilla's new game, etc. Let's not forget that MS themselves confirmed Tomb Raider is only a timed exclusive. If you're gonna list a bunch of exclusives for XBone, don't just list one for PS4 and then try to dismiss the rest. It makes you look like you're trying to trash PS4.
As for Destiny, the fact that Bungie has more of a history with Xbox means very little. Given how vastly more popular GTA4 was on 360, many would've assumed GTA5, despite the perks/ bundles of the PS3 version, would've also done better but were proven very wrong. You have to understand that only a percentage of US consumers have loyalty to brand. Fact is, the majority go where the advertising goes. PS4, so far this gen, has proven to be the dominant system in the US because of it's superior advertising and great PR, despite the 360 dominating the US last gen. Trust me. If people see a bundle for Destiny with all the advertisement of the PS4 version being better, the vast majority will go for PS4. No doubt in my mind.
As for Fifa, I remember Fifa 14 getting an exclusive XBone bundle, and it still sold better on PS4. Not to mention people making the same exact predictions you're making now.
As for you're ratios, not a snowball's chance in hell. The US/ UK, despite the big XBone price drop, have still had PS4 in the lead. Europe this wasn't up for debate. At best, the US will eventually reach a 1:1 ratio, with Europe only getting a bigger ratio for PS4 as time moves on, and Japan is too obvious.
Destiny will probably end up being a far bigger and better selling title than CoD this year. CoD clearly has lost a lot of it's presence that it had in the past, and the new bundle will do nothing against the PS4 Destiny bundle. All that however, is just my theory. I could very well be wrong on that.
I'm not trying to offend you. This was me breaking down your prediction and explaining why I think you're wrong. Also, you should probably check out some of the material Sony showed at Gamescom. They did an excellent job there, and it might enlighten you on what's coming to PS4. Believe me, it's not just Uncharted 4.