Quantcast
July 2014 NPD Thread! PS4: 187k, XBO: 131k, Wii U: 81k

Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2014 NPD Thread! PS4: 187k, XBO: 131k, Wii U: 81k

Ninsect said:
benji232 said:
Ninsect said:

I said ~300k overtracked and by that I meant in total. So 100k US, maybe another 100 or 150k in Europe. ROW another 100k

What sales data are you talking about? NPD and Japan lol? There's a whole world out there.

Japan and NA make up for 60%-70% wiiU sales. Then you have Europe which is another 20%-25% and then there is ROW that is another 5-10%.  You said 300k was a conservative number and that it's likely overtracked by 500k+. I'm just telling you that it's factually impossible that it's overtracked by that much. Maybe 250k-300k tops. 

When did I say that it was likely overtracked by 500k+? I meant that it likely has 10 weeks of stock on shelves, which would be 500k+ or about 300-350k overtracked.

How is that factually impossible? You're looking at sales ratios from VGC, how does that in any way help you when we're talking about VGC itself overtracking?

We already have the official NPD LTD from a leak last month which showed wiiU was overtracked by 75-100k. Then we have the official Japanese sales data every week from famitsu/mediacreate. And then for "others", well we can only look at Nintendo's own shipment numbers and see that it's impossible that it's overtracked by over 400k overthere. And I'm too lazy to go through this thread again, but when you were taking to someone, you said that 300k was a "conservative" number and that it was likely overtracked by 500k+. I'm telling you once again that it's factually impossible that it's overtracked by that much.

And I'm NOT using vgc data. I'm using Nintendo shipments/NPD/Mediacreate/famitsu.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Around the Network
Ninsect said:
Welfare said:
Was it already posted that TLoU:R sold ~270k?

Don't think so. Does that include the bundles?


There is no bundle in the US.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

It's looking like PS4 will be about 1m below where Wii & PS2 were after two US holidays, 15 months for PS2, 14 months for Wii & PS4. Xbox 1 is selling pretty horribly actually, it's just obscured by the fact that Wii U is selling even worse somehow.

X1 is probably going to end up at 2.2-2.8m or something for the year, vs. maybe 1.5-1.7m for Wii U. 

For 30 weeks we have average weekly sales of:

PS4 - 59,000

X1 - 41,000

WIi U - 18,000

50,000 / week in Jan - Oct implies 3.5m in a year - a solid - but not strong year. PS4 should probably get to 4.1m or so based on that (vs. 6m for Wii / PS2 in their first full year). I'm expecting them all to go up again next year, with PS4 peaking in 2016, and then Wii U / X1 declining after 2015 (i.e. PS4 will be up in 2016, Wii U / X1 will be down). It's looking like a fairly mundane generation overall - PS4 will probably get to slightly better figures in the US than PS3, but without a strong Xbox and more expensive game development, it should be harder for games to be made for it as long as they were for PS3 / X360, so I think PS4 gets to 29m or something (vs. 26-27m for PS3) in a shorter timeframe, with X1 getting to 16m or so, and Wii U maybe getting to 10-11m (it's going to be replaced in 2017 - I'd say 2016, but 3DS will be need to be replaced first - Wii U is at least growing - 3DS is shrinking)



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

It's looking like PS4 will be about 1m below where Wii & PS2 were after two US holidays, 15 months for PS2, 14 months for Wii & PS4. Xbox 1 is selling pretty horribly actually, it's just obscured by the fact that Wii U is selling even worse somehow.

X1 is probably going to end up at 2.2-2.8m or something for the year, vs. maybe 1.5-1.7m for Wii U. 

For 30 weeks we have average weekly sales of:

PS4 - 59,000

X1 - 41,000

WIi U - 18,000

50,000 / week in Jan - Oct implies 3.5m in a year - a solid - but not strong year. PS4 should probably get to 4.1m or so based on that (vs. 6m for Wii / PS2 in their first full year). I'm expecting them all to go up again next year, with PS4 peaking in 2016, and then Wii U / X1 declining after 2015 (i.e. PS4 will be up in 2016, Wii U / X1 will be down). It's looking like a fairly mundane generation overall - PS4 will probably get to slightly better figures in the US than PS3, but without a strong Xbox and more expensive game development, it should be harder for games to be made for it as long as they were for PS3 / X360, so I think PS4 gets to 29m or something (vs. 26-27m for PS3) in a shorter timeframe, with X1 getting to 16m or so, and Wii U maybe getting to 10-11m (it's going to be replaced in 2017 - I'd say 2016, but 3DS will be need to be replaced first - Wii U is at least growing - 3DS is shrinking)

PS4 is sure to sell a lot more than that.



prinz_valium said:
NewGuy said:
prinz_valium said:
AZWification said:
Ninsect said:

And Africa (and Antarctica)

Don't forget about the damn Moon! That's a very valuable market!


not right now. but after destiny launch ;)

 

NewGuy said:
PS4 numbers are lower than everyone thought. Hopefully TLOUR and stuff like Diablo and Madden can get its sales to pick up a bit in August.

The good news for MS is that the PS4 is not in beast mode (yet?) in the US. The XBO is just ~750K behind the PS4 in the US, so XBone can still catch up to it. There are 3 bundles coming up for XBO, Madden, COD, and SO. MS has a chance to win August with the Madden bundle, little chance in September (due to Destiny's bundle).

MS can still win in the US. Wii + PS3 + 360 sold about 109.3M in the US. WiiU + PS4 + XBO sold about 9.4M, so, even with a market contraction due to Wii - WiiU, there are still a lot of consoles left to be sold here. I feel this Holiday will be extremely important as the snowball effect, which right now is small and going the PS4's way, may get huge and impossible to stop after the holidays. MS has shown their cards for the holidays and how aggressive they'll be, we may even get some sort of BF deal. Sony hasn't shown anything yet besides the Destiny bundle and lots of people are expecting a GTAV bundle as well. Will be interesting to see.

Ohhh and PS3 and 360 need a price drop pronto. $200 for those consoles at this point is highway robbery. $149, or even better, $129 for it please.


its 707k units to be exact

beautiful number in my opinon


According to the leak it was PS4 3.6M LTD and XBO 2.9M LTD. July's estimate shows the PS4 sold ~50K more than the XBO. What am I missing?


the 3.6m and 2.9m are rounded.

 

PS4 3,567,000 

XB1 2,916,000

are the precise ende on june npd nunbers

 

edit: sorry for double post


Appreciate that. Do you have the exact numbers for the other consoles from the leak as well (PS3, PSV, Wii, WiiU, 360)?



Around the Network
TheSource said:

It's looking like PS4 will be about 1m below where Wii & PS2 were after two US holidays, 15 months for PS2, 14 months for Wii & PS4. Xbox 1 is selling pretty horribly actually, it's just obscured by the fact that Wii U is selling even worse somehow.

X1 is probably going to end up at 2.2-2.8m or something for the year, vs. maybe 1.5-1.7m for Wii U. 

For 30 weeks we have average weekly sales of:

PS4 - 59,000

X1 - 41,000

WIi U - 18,000

50,000 / week in Jan - Oct implies 3.5m in a year - a solid - but not strong year. PS4 should probably get to 4.1m or so based on that (vs. 6m for Wii / PS2 in their first full year). I'm expecting them all to go up again next year, with PS4 peaking in 2016, and then Wii U / X1 declining after 2015 (i.e. PS4 will be up in 2016, Wii U / X1 will be down). It's looking like a fairly mundane generation overall - PS4 will probably get to slightly better figures in the US than PS3, but without a strong Xbox and more expensive game development, it should be harder for games to be made for it as long as they were for PS3 / X360, so I think PS4 gets to 29m or something (vs. 26-27m for PS3) in a shorter timeframe, with X1 getting to 16m or so, and Wii U maybe getting to 10-11m (it's going to be replaced in 2017 - I'd say 2016, but 3DS will be need to be replaced first - Wii U is at least growing - 3DS is shrinking)

Honestly i said:

1) 4DS coming in 2017.

2) Wii D and XBOX TWO coming in 2018.

3) PS5 coming in 2020.

4) PS4 will break the peak in 2017.

5) XBOX ONE will sell double than XBOX in USA.

6) Wii U will sell more than GameCube  in USA.



TheSting said:

Its awful to you. You are trying to use your experience and make it true for everyone. This guy is a riot. Keep pushing your PS agenda tho i'll mind my business.

He's partially right you know.

Many fans of the OG Xbox got burned hard. Lots of them ignored it cause they didn't know any better, since Xbox was their first console. Me coming off of Gamecube and PS2, I was like ok, I'm not gonna deal with this anymore.

Everytime, I bring up how MS just dropped the OG for the 360, fans want to tell me oh OG Xbox was losing Billions of dollars and oh x360 is so much more profitable then it too.

And I'm like, am I supposed to care about how much money Microsoft Makes?

With the exception of the better controller on the 360, the Xbox had no adds. barely any hardware problems what so ever, built in hard drive, fully featured out of the box, the only thing that was more durable was my GameCube cause the PS2 was always breaking, xbox live was always optional but encouraged, the OG Xbox was my favorite MS console.

Fast foward 10 years and the Kinect I'm trying to use with my third 360 which is an arcade tells me I need a hard drive to download the patch to use the Kinect. I also can't save. So the Kinect and 360 I got where completely useless without buying a ms branded HDD. 

Its that 360 mentality that gave us Always Online and Mandatory Kinect, while the reversals are bringing back the OG Xbox mentality and thats good, but MS is all about the money so we'll see.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

benji232 said:
Ninsect said:

When did I say that it was likely overtracked by 500k+? I meant that it likely has 10 weeks of stock on shelves, which would be 500k+ or about 300-350k overtracked.

How is that factually impossible? You're looking at sales ratios from VGC, how does that in any way help you when we're talking about VGC itself overtracking?

We already have the official NPD LTD from a leak last month which showed wiiU was overtracked by 75-100k. Then we have the official Japanese sales data every week from famitsu/mediacreate. And then for "others", well we can only look at Nintendo's own shipment numbers and see that it's impossible that it's overtracked by over 400k overthere. And I'm too lazy to go through this thread again, but when you were taking to someone, you said that 300k was a "conservative" number and that it was likely overtracked by 500k+. I'm telling you once again that it's factually impossible that it's overtracked by that much.

And I'm NOT using vgc data. I'm using Nintendo shipments/NPD/Mediacreate/famitsu.

Well I meant that it likely has 500k+ on shelves, which suggests 300k+ overtracked. You keep saying it's "impossible" but you've failed to provide me with reasons why. Why is it impossible based on their shipments? The sold/shipped gap was around 140k iirc. Now THAT is something impossible.



The One and Only

VizionEck.com

Ninsect said:
benji232 said:
Ninsect said:

When did I say that it was likely overtracked by 500k+? I meant that it likely has 10 weeks of stock on shelves, which would be 500k+ or about 300-350k overtracked.

How is that factually impossible? You're looking at sales ratios from VGC, how does that in any way help you when we're talking about VGC itself overtracking?

We already have the official NPD LTD from a leak last month which showed wiiU was overtracked by 75-100k. Then we have the official Japanese sales data every week from famitsu/mediacreate. And then for "others", well we can only look at Nintendo's own shipment numbers and see that it's impossible that it's overtracked by over 400k overthere. And I'm too lazy to go through this thread again, but when you were taking to someone, you said that 300k was a "conservative" number and that it was likely overtracked by 500k+. I'm telling you once again that it's factually impossible that it's overtracked by that much.

And I'm NOT using vgc data. I'm using Nintendo shipments/NPD/Mediacreate/famitsu.

Well I meant that it likely has 500k+ on shelves, which suggests 300k+ overtracked. You keep saying it's "impossible" but you've failed to provide me with reasons why. Why is it impossible based on their shipments? The sold/shipped gap was around 140k iirc. Now THAT is something impossible.

Nintendo shipped 1.73M wiiU systems in "others" territories which is mostly Europe. We have wiiU at 1.4m sold in Europe as of June 28th. Let's say there is another 100k systems sold in some of the smaller countries that aren't necesserely in Europe. That would mean there's about 200k+ systems on shelves in "others" territories which is mostly Europe (again), how could we have "others" overtracked by 200k+? Especially knowing that there is such a low amount of wiiU on storeshelves in Europe considering how badly it was doing last year and even saw a quarter where the shipments were negative overthere.

Then we have the Americas. We know that wiiU is overtracked by roughly 75-100k going by NPD. Then you have Japan where we get sales data every week so it's definetely not overtracked overthere.

Where is that 300k overtracked? I'm asking you the question.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

drake_tolu said:

6) Wii U will sell more than GameCube  in USA.


Ok, seriously, what has been shown that the Wii U will sell more than Gamecube in the US? Hell, its still behind the Dreamcast! Must I post the charts?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=125549720&postcount=2419

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=125630414&postcount=2719

Wii U outselling the Gamecube in the US (and WW) is still a pipedream.  



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287