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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 2:1 Xbox One worldwide

 

When will the PS4 be 3:1 to the Xbox One

January 2015 116 18.44%
 
When the Order 1886 comes out. 22 3.50%
 
WHen Bloodbourne comes out. 49 7.79%
 
By E3 2015. 153 24.32%
 
By Jannuary 2016. 107 17.01%
 
Sometime 2017. 43 6.84%
 
Sometime 2018. 12 1.91%
 
Sometime 2019. 6 0.95%
 
Never. 119 18.92%
 
Total:627
ICStats on 15 August 2014
vivster said:
ICStats said:
vivster said:

Not yet at 2:1.
Let's wait for the next adjustments.

I don't think it will increase. Unless MS stops supporting the X1 after 2015.

There is missing a never option. I don't think I'm the only person who thinks that PS4 will never reach triple the sales of X1.

At current trend the PS4 would tripple the sales of X1.

VGC Tracking PS4 : XB1 Apr-July
558K : 210K
539K : 172K
662K : 314K
546K : 226K

Sony's announcement is 30% higher than VGC tracking.

Adjusted VGC PS4 : XB1 Apr-July
744K : 210K
719K : 172K
861K : 314K
710K : 226K

Ratio PS4 : XB1 Apr-July
3.5 : 1
4.2 : 1
2.7 : 1
3.1 : 1

Add in TLOU this month, and Destiny next month and this trend will continue.  It's up to Halo to save X1.

PS4 will never reach 3:1 by constantly selling 3:1. It needs to do at least 4:1 on a regular basis to reach 3:1 in a timely manner.

Yes that's true - it would need to sell over 3:1.  If it sold around 3.5:1 then it would be at 3:1 LTD in a couple of years.

Personally I don't think PS4 will be able to keep this trend next year, but one possibility is that PS4 would reach a 3:1 LTD late in life.  This is because the dominant console would eventually get more developer support than the underdog.  Also the dominant console is more likely to keep selling while the underdog dies an abrubt death (e.g. PS2 vs XB).

Oh and if PS4 manages to spark interest in Japan with MGS5, Final Fantasy, etc. then it will contribute to the gap.  Right now it's selling 3:1 with minor sales in Japan.



My 8th gen collection

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ICStats on 15 August 2014

Can we just pause for a moment, take a deep breath and reflect.

No longer are we debating when XB1 will beat PS4 globally in the US. No longer even about 2:1. No, now the argument is no way will PS4 outsell it by 3:1 in a timely manner ;-P.



My 8th gen collection

eva01beserk on 16 August 2014
ICStats said:
Can we just pause for a moment, take a deep breath and reflect.

No longer are we debating when XB1 will beat PS4 globally in the US. No longer even about 2:1. No, now the argument is no way will PS4 outsell it by 3:1 in a timely manner ;-P.

And all of these scopes changed with in a year. Thats just crazy. What you think the next argument be after the holidays? Or maybe it will change after the 29 territories?



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk on 16 August 2014

I really like the math applyed on this thread that goes with my prediction.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=188600&page=1



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Josiah on 17 August 2014

Where is the now option?



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drake_tolu on 17 August 2014
vivster said:

Not yet at 2:1.
Let's wait for the next adjustments.

I don't think it will increase. Unless MS stops supporting the X1 after 2015.

There is missing a never option. I don't think I'm the only person who thinks that PS4 will never reach triple the sales of X1.

No.

The gap lifetime will be minimum 2,5:1 (and i'm generous)

I predict 3,5:1 ...



OttoniBastos on 17 August 2014
vivster said:
eva01beserk said:

This gap will just keep increasing, so something tells me that somtime around E3 2015 they will anounce the PS4 is 3:1 to the x1.

What do you guys think?

Have you actually done the math on this?

Taken the worst case scenario that X1 will only sell 8 million consoles by the end of this year. That would mean PS4 would have to do 24 million until mid june.

Still seems achievable?

People need to learn the difference between linear and exponential groth.

This^^

Lets say that Xone sells 10 million consoles LTD at june 2015.(Worst case scenario and kind of impossible imo)

This means that PS4 would have to reach 30 million LTD at june 2015.

Is this possible for PS4? sure! Next year PS4 is full of exclusives and third party marketing.

on the other hand,do you really think Xbox one will only sell 10 million until june?



mutantclown on 17 August 2014

By the time Rise of The Tomb Raider releases, first on Xbone.......... and all SE executives will be kicking themselves in the balls.



eva01beserk on 17 August 2014
OttoniBastos said:
vivster said:
eva01beserk said:

This gap will just keep increasing, so something tells me that somtime around E3 2015 they will anounce the PS4 is 3:1 to the x1.

What do you guys think?

Have you actually done the math on this?

Taken the worst case scenario that X1 will only sell 8 million consoles by the end of this year. That would mean PS4 would have to do 24 million until mid june.

Still seems achievable?

People need to learn the difference between linear and exponential groth.

This^^

Lets say that Xone sells 10 million consoles LTD at june 2015.(Worst case scenario and kind of impossible imo)

This means that PS4 would have to reach 30 million LTD at june 2015.

Is this possible for PS4? sure! Next year PS4 is full of exclusives and third party marketing.

on the other hand,do you really think Xbox one will only sell 10 million until june?

That is really close to what I'm predicting. Like 11m, a bit more but not more than 12m. Next year will be worst than this year for the x1. They haveno games after this holiday so sales will plumet and quantom brake canot hold them afloat. 

Next year will be bigger for the ps4, this year they will end at like 16-17m, so 30-35m is not out of the question. Dificult, but posible.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

mutantclown on 17 August 2014
eva01beserk said:
OttoniBastos said:
vivster said:
eva01beserk said:

This gap will just keep increasing, so something tells me that somtime around E3 2015 they will anounce the PS4 is 3:1 to the x1.

What do you guys think?

Have you actually done the math on this?

Taken the worst case scenario that X1 will only sell 8 million consoles by the end of this year. That would mean PS4 would have to do 24 million until mid june.

Still seems achievable?

People need to learn the difference between linear and exponential groth.

This^^

Lets say that Xone sells 10 million consoles LTD at june 2015.(Worst case scenario and kind of impossible imo)

This means that PS4 would have to reach 30 million LTD at june 2015.

Is this possible for PS4? sure! Next year PS4 is full of exclusives and third party marketing.

on the other hand,do you really think Xbox one will only sell 10 million until june?

That is really close to what I'm predicting. Like 11m, a bit more but not more than 12m. Next year will be worst than this year for the x1. They haveno games after this holiday so sales will plumet and quantom brake canot hold them afloat. 

Next year will be bigger for the ps4, this year they will end at like 16-17m, so 30-35m is not out of the question. Dificult, but posible.

Yeah, this year after 7 months the Xbone has sold a bit less than 2 million. 2 million in 7 months. Yes, it will launch in many other territories including China this fall, and it's also cheaper now than in its first 6 months. Also there will be some major bundles available this fall, and MCC is going to move some decent numbers. However, its performance in Europe is the key factor. That's where the PS4 is killing it. If by the end of this year the Xbone isn't capable of making a dramatic push in Europe, I can't see it making more than 2 million total between November and December, on the strength of USA basically.  That would leave it at around 8 million at the start of 2015. PS4 is going to be closer to 20 million by Jan '15 if it keeps tracking this way. Destiny bundle and PS4 sales are going to explode next month.