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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Wii U vs Xbox One: Race to second place

 

Who will win in the end?

Wii U 425 70.60%
 
Xbox One 172 28.57%
 
Total:597

Small countries won't help the X1 alot, because it would be horribly overpriced.



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teigaga said:

Sorry, but I feel like everyone is being extremely short sighted.

1.The Wii U's biggest software release in 16months has afforded it a momentary 7k advantage and suddenly they expect it to outsell Xbox longterm?

2. Cross gen 3rd party ≠ Next Gen exclusive 3rd party

Firstly people are not taking into account that they are comparing a system that have accumulated 1 and half years of momentum, some of its biggest franchises, to a system which has only had 6months and NONE of its big hitters. Even given that predicament there is about 7k seperating the 2 on a weekly basis, something that will be mostly diminished somewhat when XO is released WW, let alone when it receives next gen system sellers which will benefit both it and PS4... So it shocks me that people think the wii U will hold this advantage when Halo, Gears, Next Gen only AC, Witcher 3, Batman, Mass Effect, Starwars etc come to the Xbox.

Before anyone says that it hasnt helped XO so far, you cannot use the cross gen 3rd party releases to discern this. Since when were cross gen releases ever expected to sell tons of next gen hardware?... As a whole cross gen releases have had very little effect on hardware sales, both for the Xbox One and PS4. At most they've simply maintained them above the horrible levels Wii U fell to. The only cross gen release to have a significant effect was Watchdogs (58% increase for PS4, 27% XO)... MGS appeared to be resposible for a big PS4 bump but it was in the same week as the Infamous PS4 bundle release so thats the more likely cause.

In Short

Xbox's slum >>>>> Wii U slum
Xbox's Peak >>>>> Wii U peak. (based on foreseable releases and past sales)
Wii U's peak baseline = Xbox Slum baseline... (sales difference is currently insignificant)


How many MONTHS have to go by before it is not "momentary" anymore?

Explain?

Also, where does this year and a half and 6 months come from? How are you three months in the past in regards to actual reality when compared to everyone else's timeline?



This is NOT the first of these kinds of threads. We have discussed this to death and we are never able to agree.



In the long run XBOne will - unfortunately - clearly outsell WiiU unless Nintendo suddenly has an absolute brilliant idea which sells tons of consoles.
WiiU has been completely abandoned by 3rds while XBone never will be completely abandoned by 3rds. They will keep on releasing the most of the games for XBone.
It only may change, when WiiU greatly outsells XBone, like ratio 2:1 in normal weeks. But we all know this can never ever happen without a miracle.



X1 will easily win through 3rd party support alone. Just wait until Destiny, GTA5 and FarCry 4 arrive, and hundreds more to come including GTA 6, the next Elder Scrolls, The Witcher, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts and all big AAA IPs the industry has to offer. The Wii-U is a niche system for small children only, as soon as kids get out of kindergarden age, PS4 and X1 are the only system to play with, unfortunately.



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PattonFiend said:
teigaga said:

Sorry, but I feel like everyone is being extremely short sighted.

1.The Wii U's biggest software release in 16months has afforded it a momentary 7k advantage and suddenly they expect it to outsell Xbox longterm?

2. Cross gen 3rd party ≠ Next Gen exclusive 3rd party

Firstly people are not taking into account that they are comparing a system that have accumulated 1 and half years of momentum, some of its biggest franchises, to a system which has only had 6months and NONE of its big hitters. Even given that predicament there is about 7k seperating the 2 on a weekly basis, something that will be mostly diminished somewhat when XO is released WW, let alone when it receives next gen system sellers which will benefit both it and PS4... So it shocks me that people think the wii U will hold this advantage when Halo, Gears, Next Gen only AC, Witcher 3, Batman, Mass Effect, Starwars etc come to the Xbox.

Before anyone says that it hasnt helped XO so far, you cannot use the cross gen 3rd party releases to discern this. Since when were cross gen releases ever expected to sell tons of next gen hardware?... As a whole cross gen releases have had very little effect on hardware sales, both for the Xbox One and PS4. At most they've simply maintained them above the horrible levels Wii U fell to. The only cross gen release to have a significant effect was Watchdogs (58% increase for PS4, 27% XO)... MGS appeared to be resposible for a big PS4 bump but it was in the same week as the Infamous PS4 bundle release so thats the more likely cause.

In Short

Xbox's slum >>>>> Wii U slum
Xbox's Peak >>>>> Wii U peak. (based on foreseable releases and past sales)
Wii U's peak baseline = Xbox Slum baseline... (sales difference is currently insignificant)


How many MONTHS have to go by before it is not "momentary" amymore?

Explain?

Specifically the sales gap is momentary becuause circumstances will with new releases (or lack of big releases) and seasonal demand bumps will change the dynamics. I expect the Wii U to outsell or at least equal the Xbox til the end of august, but then that will be the last time the Wii U outsells the Xbox consistently for more then a month.

The way I see the current circumstance is that the Wii U has reached a new peak, a killer app on its arsenal, backed by good catelog of appealling games (Super Mario 3D world, Donkey Kong, NSMBU, Windwaker HD) and an affordable price. This has provided what I believe to be a long term sales increase which is impressive compared to its previous sales but just decent otherwise. The Xbox will pass this easily once it gets frequent big releases, not just cross gen titles.

Essentially people are taking the Xbox at its lowest and comparing it to the Wii U at its highest. 



Saying the XBox One will win at this point is just as much wishful thinking as anything else. Truthfully, this all sounds very similar to last gen, when people said month after month that next month the PS3 would overtake the 360. Remember how long it took?

There's nothing, nothing, out there that definitively puts the XBox in 2nd place. Third party support is hardly an argument anymore, because we've seen the greater public chooses the PS4 as their console. To the 'regular' person, it's just looking to be a better buy. There's Halo? Europe hardly cares, so it's biggest impact will be in the US. Japan and the other countries the XBox hasn't released in yet? Guess why that is, releasing there will only increase the baseline by a couple 'k weekly. People in those regions only have the PS4 on their minds. Maybe the holidays? I never got this part, we all know Nintendo's consoles have huge holiday boosts, why would this year be different? Because of a remake of Halo? Are Mario Kart 8 and Smash going to do nothing at all this holiday? Price-cuts then? Even when we've already seen taking away the Kinect and having deals and bundles hardly helped the XBox One get anywhere, it's not like the WiiU's price will always stay the same.

Anyway, I'm not saying I know which console will win 2nd place, seriously, it's still any man's game. I'm just saying the XBox's outlook as just as cloudy and uncertain as WiiU's is and there are still many unknowns and wildcards. I'm saying, it will be close, and it will take a very, very long time.



PattonFiend said:

How many MONTHS have to go by before it is not "momentary" anymore?

Explain?

Also, where does this year and a half and 6 months come from? How are you three months in the past in regards to actual reality when compared to everyone else's timeline?


Oops, I always just round things up and down. I just thought year and half... 



It's kinda funny, given how well the One launched, many thought it would pass the Wii U just be a few months after the PS4 did. Now, these threads are 100% justifiable. Anyway, I think if Nintendo plays its cards just right, then it can hold 2nd all gen.

I think there are many like me who will buy a PS4 first, but will consider buying a Wii U when it's ~$199-$249, both for some exclusives and for the kids. So, a price cut this holiday season would be a wise choice, as it makes it cheap enough to be a 2nd console for core gamers.

Nintendo also needs to do a better job at getting its 1st/2nd party exclusives out quicker, as they aren't going to be getting the same great 3rd party support as the One. They need to give gamers a reason to get their console and a couple big exclusives a year isn't going to cut it.



I can still see the XOne take 2nd place before the end of the year. The gap could schrink to about 1 million by the end of September, with XOne tier 2 launch and games like Destiny. Besides i think VGChartz tracking is a little off.

It won't take a miracle for the XOne outsell the Wii-U by one million in the course of the last 3 months of the year, including the holiday's.