It seems the Wii U has been in Catch 22 stasis since release.  No install base = no third parties = no install base.

With Mario Kart 8 moving units and Smash 4 being the biggest Wii U release from this point on, the console will shift units.  But will it matter? Will 3rd party publishers give the Gamepad a second(or in most cases first) chance?  Or is it too little too late?

I think Japan will support it a bit; Capcom, Sega and maybe Square-Enix, but no more than one or two games, depending on sales. 

Nope, I am pretty sure that Smash won't change a thing.

it has more to do with the fact that the games that sell on the console are only Nintendo games. this is partly the 3rd party faults of releasing crappy or delayed ports of the games but still

No. But them not releasing anything only makes us buy more nintendo games which in turn makes them say that only nintendo games sell even though they half make it that way by releasing crappy ports. So unless they are collaborating with nintendo on a game expect to see nothing expect some indie game outside of nintendos strong offerings.

Why? What does Smash has to with third parties?

Sometimes it's good to read the entire OP and not just the title before responding, bubblegamer.

Too late.

Smash could move enough units, resulting in Wii U's installbase becoming large enough for 3rd party publishers to develop and release their games for the Wii U and turning a profit on that version, which currently doesn't seem the case.

Doubt it.

Nope. 3rd parties situation is just too screwed up at this point.