Week of Black Friday > Week before chrismas ?

the week before chrismas is the week most important of year.

All console sell more in this week, only XBOX console sell more.

Look other Sony console sales:

Year
Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2007	376K VS 660K	446K VS 840K
Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2008	424K VS 560K	500K VS 788K
Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2009	790K VS 1M	375K VS 530K
Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2010	743K VS 830K	345K VS 526K
Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2011	839K VS 895K	188K VS 332K
Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2012	775K VS 600K	107K VS 267K

As you look, only 1/12 the Sony console have sold more the week of Black Friday than the week before chrismas.

drake_tolu said: Xevross said: I edited your numbers out of my ass as a guesstimate at what I think PS4's holiday could be (I expect it to be a little bit less), your October seems too high but I mostly agree apart from that Week of Black Friday > Week before chrismas ? the week before chrismas is the week most important of year. All console sell more in this week, only XBOX console sell more.   Look other Sony console sales: Year   Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2007 376K VS 660K 446K VS 840K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2008 424K VS 560K 500K VS 788K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2009 790K VS 1M 375K VS 530K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2010 743K VS 830K 345K VS 526K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2011 839K VS 895K 188K VS 332K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2012 775K VS 600K 107K VS 267K As you look, only 1/12 the Sony console have sold more the week of Black Friday than the week before chrismas.

It could be different this time, i think BF and Christmas will be very close because BF is near from GTA V + LBP3 + Far Cry 4 bundles, both will be huge

So now looking back at this post, I was actually about 500k low for PS4. I still think my other projection are close so I now think 17 million is possible, and 16 mil is a given. Notice the last sentance "I dont know where the other 500k(almost exactly how much I was of for my "end of september" projection) comes from" it appears that Destiny has covered that so I think 16.5 to 17 mil is the target.

Not reaching 17M would be a total failure as the dominative console : http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/39390/Global/

17m is the sweet spot


ps4 sold 4.2m in 2013
oct - dec sales are generally 50% of ytd (xbox and wii got bigger Holiday quarter than playstation historically)
jan - sept 2014 ytd for ps4 is about 7 - 7.5m ( Japan Launch, supply issues and a big September)

so lets go for 40 - 45% as oct - dec sales or 6m



17m is not out of reach. but ps4 can fail that Goal. both is possible

Look at PS3 sales in the same time period, you really think PS4 cant sell at least as good as PS3, knowing PS3 was far to sell as good for the rest of the year ?

i used conservative numbers

i said just possible to fail. not likely

18m+ is possible, too

Its a failure to hold momentum. 

at 7 million ytd currently, it should sell ~7mill in Nov+Dec, even if we assume a 100k october, way below PS4's base line of 150k?

that's still 18.4 + 100k of october, pushing it to 18.5 mill this is assuming that vgchartz is accurate, when its most likely undertracked. To meet 17 million it needs 5.5 million for Nov+Dec, which would be a failure in its own right, but even those extremely conservative numbers would push it. 

Last year PS4 sold 4.4 million, with half a November and 2 launch games, anything less than that let alone 5.5 is a huge problem.

Going off of VGChartz numbers PS4 has sold 11,447,553 up until the week ending 4/10/2014 numbers.
By 4/1/2014 it had sold 4,425,130.

From 4/1/2014 to 4/10/2014 PS4 sold 7,022,423, if holiday sales account for 50% of the year's totals than around another 7 million from October to the end of December, PS4's total should be around 18.5 million by the end of the year.

If PS4 has in fact sold around 12 million by the 4th of october (which I think is likely) then the year's totals would be 7.6 million, that would make the total by the end of this year 19.6 million.
I suppose most would consider that way too high, probably thinking Sony couldn't produce that many, but I doubt Sony stayed at producing only a million a month, they'd like gradually ramp it up over the course of the year, because they wouldn't want to run out like they did at the launch.
An average of about 1.26 million a month for the year, plus whatever they shipped between the period before launch, right up to the start of Jan would probably give them about 20 million units to ship, so more than enough to meet demand for the time PS4 has been on the market.

17 million by the end of the year is easy and probably well below what the console will actually sell through by the end of this year.

Personally I'd expect at least 18.5 million, I'm not sure how reliable the whole thing of selling 50% of all sales in the holiday period is, but if it is reliable then people should expect 19.6 million units to have been sold by the end of this year.

Well yes, since PS3 did 2,4M in December, i guess PS4 can reach at least 3M only for the month. It will also depends on Japan, we'll see if they buy at christmas even without system seller ( but the recent announcements and good futur should help  )