xbox 360 lead NPD console hardware sales for 32 consecutive months before having it's streak broken.  i think it is pretty obvious that ps4 won't ever lose an NPD to either the wiiU or xbox one.   so really,.. the next possible time for ps4 not to come out on top in NPD is when the next console launch occurs which i believe to be more than 2 years ways.  so so long as there is no surprisingly soon console launch in the next two years..

ps4 will easily break xbox's 32 consecutive months of leading console hardware sales in NPD

Hmm Halo 5 might give the X1 a month, unless UC4 releases in the same month. Anyway I don't think it's an obvious prediction.

How crazy are these shortages supposed to be??

Your obvious prediction will probably be right. On other words I'm considering skipping this gen especially since I've seen a ton of people saying a new console may be coming in just two years. That's too short and not worth my money.

MS and Sony will probably drag this gen out forever again.   maybe not nintendo but i don't think third parties will be clamoring for new hardware any time soon when current hardware performance out-performs their ability to create games that say within a reasonable budget. 

Most people want games running at 60fps, 1080p this gen and if peoples wallets demand it they will get it. We all know these consoles can't deliver that. Anyways this gen is sort off like filler, everything being done this gen could be replicated on  last gen minus the slightly fancier graphics.

I see this gen lasting awhile like until 4k becomes viable and they can advertise that as the big improvement. Nintendo won't care about that and always lags in hardware anyway but they don't really effect 3rd parties at this point. PS4 will break this record with the only threat being November of every year given Xbox's holiday strength in years past.

Where do you want to send the money?

Meh... cheapskate :/

Nah. It could happen, of course, but I would expect the streak to break at some point. It could be a Wii U price slash, an XBOne price slash, some other big promotion or a hot new exclusive. But I would say it's more likely than not that the streak will break before then.