"Falling back a bit" is your words. For the winner of gen 8 to sell less than the lower of gen 7 isn't falling back a bit. It is falling back a lot. 

I personally don't think PS4 + xb one = Ps3+360 at the end of the generation. But I think the market share redistribution towards PS4 should see PS4 sell faster and sell more than Ps3. It's just that xb one will fall far short of xb360. PS4 selling less than 360 would spell doom for consoles. 

I think PS4's peak year will sell about 20 million. PS sales pattern appears to be shallower and longer than what we saw with Wii. Ultimately PS4 can sell more than Wii and in a similar timeframe. Wii started strong but faded fast. PS4 started not quite so strong but won't fade so fast.

I think the thing about console power vs PC is that we are approaching diminishing returns. PS4 and to an extent Xb one are both able to play games that look and play great. Infamous second son is beautiful, and I honestly don't feel the need to have a game look or perform better than that. And this is early gen, which means we will get games that look and perform better on both xb one and PS4. Multiplat PC devs might start moaning sooner in the generation, but I think console gamers will still be happy 5 years from now, which gives PS4 plenty of time to reach or exceed total Wii sales. They only disruption to that would be a Wii U 2 in late 2016 that is at least double the PS4bone power and which gamers jump on to in substantial numbers. 

chance for shorter life cycle

mobile phones and even pc, as heavy competitors

decreasing population in sonys stronghold europe

"dead" home territory japan

thats some points against the 100m ps4 gold

This gen will be longer and mobile phones and pc does not compete with consoles

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i think it will peak as much as ps2.

first: i said "chance" of being shorter

why the hell do u talk like ur assumption is a fact?

second: ofc they compete with consoles

or dont the pc compete with tablets in any kind? thats the perfect apple and oranges comparison

There is more chance the generation will be longer then shorter people still buy ps3 and xbox360 well even after X1 and PS4 launch and they are both expensive for a 8 years old consoles and 3rd party still support last gen consoles because they are not ready to abandon last gen the same thing will happen to PS4 and X1.

Longer gen will make slowing the increase  of developement cost.

pc was always stronger then consoles it didn't stop ps2 to sell well and ps3 modestly well people who buy consoles don't want to upgrade many time their pc to play newer games a console will be supported for 10 years without upgrading and smartphone targer people who never play games before.

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Its funny that there is an increasing number of PS4 will not do as well as this or that posts cause in their opinion gaming has shrunk.

Yet there is nothing about the industry that suggests that on the homes console front.The PS4 is outselling the competition the very same way the PS2 outsold everyone. I didnt hear people say gaming had shrunk then.

It's way to far away to be able to make any predictions. In 2017, we'll be halfway, if not more than halfway, through this generation. A lot could change by then. Who knows, maybe this generation will have no legs, and sales will be dying down. Maybe this generation will be the most successful ever, and ps4 sales will be through the roof. There's no way of knowing. We don't even have an idea of what games are coming out in 2017.

Lol no. Just no^^

ps4 need to get new people, who never played games before to reach 100million

what about all the ps1 and ps2 people, who stopped playing videogames afer x years? u need to compensate that sales...

thats a logic mistake u made

its simple. pc and mobile phones compete with consoles. no matter, if the pc was always stong (btw it was never such a stong gaming platform, like today) and didnt stop ps2 and ps3 to sell well.

how is this questionable?

i never said they compete directly and in the same area as ps4 vs xbox one vs wii u

but they compete for the same people who play digital games

just a short example of myself:

first i was a handheld + pc gaming guy (gameboy era)

then pc gaming + console guy ( xbox 360 late / wow era)

now i'm a console + mobile phone guy

all compete for me spendig money on games...