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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo's 3.6 mil forecast for Wii U - will they achieve it?

I think you will see heavy bundling this holiday with MK8, and I am quite sure Nintendo will break 4M for the fiscial year.



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A Smash Bros. bundle with an Amiibo and the Gamecube controller/adaptor, maybe?



Easily. It'll hit 5M.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

3Qs at ~700K 1Q at 1.5 million = 3.6 million.
500K average per month for Oct-Dec seems pretty reasonable. So I think 3.6M sold is doable. I think Nintendo could exceed their 3.6M shipment target, but then again a lot of the April Wii sales is consoles shipped in the previous FY.

What's concerning is that Nintendo projected such pathetic numbers already knowing their software line up for the year. Even if they exceed it by 50% to get 5 million shipped that's still terrible. Their projections determine their production schedule and a sudden rise in demand would be very difficult to meet because of difficulties in quickly raising production capacity.

Their market research is either shockingly bad, or their market research is accurately giving them the message that their 2014 games are not very appealing to people who don't already own a Wii U.



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hyrule and splatoon aren't really going to sell consoles.

Bayonetta if marketed right could move units, and smash bros is an obvious one.



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What if...... It looks like the Wii u will hit their target w out releasing Smash bros this fiscal year ( prob not the case but who knows ) does anyone think they will hold off releasing it until the next fiscal year ( after March 31 2015)



First of all, whoever says PS4 sales will effects Wii U is just making a plain stupid comment. Everyone knows that people are not getting a PS4 over a Wii U and and the same the other way around. Once we are over that, 800k Wii Us from one gaming is a huge increase. Plus there will be Hyrule Warriors which will have a huge effect on Japanese sales, and a good increase here in the west. Bayonneta 2 will also add a minor increase. Finally there is smash + amiibo (which alone will do nothing, but with smash will have more of an effect) which by itself will have an increase but plus the holiday season will do a hugely massive sales increase. Last year with mediocre sales earlier in the year, and only one system seller 3D World, the Wii U had one million holiday sales. With Smash and Captain Toad, games like MK8 and Hyrule Warriors, and a new found positive reception and increased hype, the holidays could defiantly sell 1.5-2M units. 800K for MK8 and maybe 800K for Hyrule warriors + Bayonetta, 1.5-2M units during the holiday, and more sales during the other months, Nintendo could defiantly make 3.6M



Cheebee said:
Easily. Holiday sales alone will be 3m+.


Keep on dreaming ahha



DanneSandin said:
Great analysis! I hope it holds true. I cant remember what games came out in April-July last year... wasnt that time frame pretty barren?

Injustice: Gods Among Us, Fast & Furious Showdown, Lego Batman 2: DC Super Heroes, Resident Evil: Revelations, Sniper Elite V2, Game & Wario, Turbo: Super Stunt Squad, and The Smurfs 2 all released between April and July 2013 in America.

For comparison, the list for 2014 had Lego The Hobbit, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Fit Music, Luv Me Buddies Wonderland, Mario Kart 8, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Transformers: Rise of the Dark Spark, and One Piece: Unlimited World Red.

So while 2014 was definitely superior, it was purely due to Mario Kart 8. Without Mario Kart 8, 2013 comes out well ahead with Injustice, Resident Evil, and Game & Wario. Also noteworthy is that Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate, Need for Speed: Most Wanted U, and Lego City Undercover all released in late March 2013, whereas the last notable release before the period in 2014 was DKC:TF in February.



Welfare said:
Metallox said:
Welfare said:
When was the last time Nintendo actually meet their forecast? 3.3 million probably.


This time is more plausible. I mean, their last forecast said they would ship around 9 million Wii Us if I'm correct... it's just incredible that they believed that was possible, considering the low hype the console had, underwhelming launch titles for everybody and poor marketing.

This time however they got Mario Kart, Smash, titles already released, the Bayonetta promotion, Hyrule Warriors and the hype generated during the E3 of this year. Even if the PS4 and Xbox One are already around, I think they are going to achieve the quantity. It's not possible, it's more than obvious.

Yeah, and when they revised the forecast last year, they still missed it by 200k. Holidays are going to be a lot harder for the Wii U now. If they do make that forecast, I would not be surprised if they stuff the channels to do so.


I had this post quoted in a new tab knowing I was going to say something. I forgot what it was, but I'm pretty sure it was something about this.