At the beginning of May, it was reported that Nintendo had released a much more conservative forecast for Wii U for this fiscal year - 3.6 million units by March 31 2015. Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros are the two strongest releases expected for the Wii U this year; the latter, along with its Amiibo figures, slated for 'winter', which could mean there's a chance it will miss the holiday season. Other games such as Hyrule Warriors and Bayonetta 2 will no doubt help things along, and Splatoon could be an additional wild card if it is released before the fiscal year end.

However, we are 16 weeks into the fiscal year ending March 2015, (30% of the fiscal year gone) and so far, according to VGChartz, 844k Wii U units have been sold. This is far less than 30% of their target, and MK8 has already been out nearly 2 months. We're not quite at the end of the bonus game window yet, but already the Wii U sales are settling down.

Are the current sales to date within Nintendo's expectations in terms of their forecast? Will the triple whammy of MK8, Smash Bros and Amiibo (if released on time for the holiday season) have what it takes to keep Wii U sales on target?

Should Nintendo be concerned at this point that they might miss their targets again? Or does everything look like it's on track? Or is it simply too early to tell?

I think it looks on track. It's normal for half the sales to come from Nov/Dec alone.

Well first of all 3.6m forecast is shipped and VGChartz is sold. I believe Nintendo will come out with quarterly numbers at the end of the month so you should wait for that.

They shipped 2.7m Wii-U's last FY so with two major games this year 3.6 million should definitely be possible. Personally is expect sales to be about 3.9 million for the whole FY, just shy of 4 million and slightly beating expectations.

Its achievable. But the PS4 hype is really strong. And destiny will dominate everything in this holiday.

Wait a few more days. Nintendo's Q1 financial report happens very soon, and it'll include some updated release details, etc. Speculating on it right now is a bit silly.

By the way, 844k being sold so far is actually a strong result for 30% of the period, because Nintendo system sales are always far higher during the holidays. To make the point, consider that, in 2013, April to July, Wii U sold 446k... and then, in November alone, it sold 466k... and in December, it sold 1.14 million units. If we assume that 844k is the equivalent for this year, then we'd expect about 882k in November and 2.16 million in December. So just adding together November and December, you get over 3 million, and with current sales added, it's nearly 3.9 million. That's without August-October or January-March 2015.

Easily. Holiday sales alone will be 3m+.

Ps4 hype is dead

You just have to believe in the power of Smash and MarioKart.

If the WiiU doesn't manage to achieve that target then we are going to have a BIG problem.. :-/

It can still make it, their sales usually excel between Black friday and the holidays so we cant rule them out just yet. When smash comes out and we dont see a huge sales difference, then there will be a problem