If Nintendo can "recover" after a year and a half on the market with such a loyal fan base and a good amount of first party software than I think the One can and will make up lost ground once the bigger titles have come out. What exclusives has the One had so far? Ryse? Titanfall was a risky new IP that also released on the 360 and PC. The titles start soon with Madden and will lead into a very healthy holiday season.
They made some mistakes early on but things are looking a lot better based on feedback. They do need a price cut, removing the kinect was not a price cut, it was the removal of an unneccessary accessory few wanted. Right now people really enjoy their 360's, there is a ton of great content, sales every week for arcade and digital retail games, a lot of the same services offered on the 360 as the One. But gradually there is more incentives and there will be, the games are coming, and the xbox fans who enjoy achievements and built up friends lists will upgrade, the 360 service has so much to offer that honestly for people without the extra money or waiting for that first big release a la MK8 will pull the trigger.