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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Do You Still Think Wii U Can Do 25 million??

icykai said:

How do expect the Wii U to reach 50-60m? I'd say as you said, there are holidays which will raise the sales. There are also games which will raise the sales so it won't be very hard to get to 50-60m if you consider those i assume.

Will it average 77k(which is actually 65k) per week? I repeat what i just said, i don't think it will stay at that rate AND i don't think the Ps4 will stay at that rate. When i made that comment i specifically said "At this rate" which was 100k. I know it can change but i was specifically speaking about how much it's going to take with that rate.

Ps4 selling 243k per week? No actually it's selling at 110k per week which is half of what you just said. No, the Ps4 will have a baseline of 250k after christmas because it doesn't have the games that will allow it to do so...

You do realize those numbers I gave for the Wii U and PS4 are average weekly sales since launch.  That is a much more useful indicator than taking a random week in July and extrapolating it out for years.

What is the point in assuming it will be 100k per week the rest of its life when you know it won't be?  You also seem to be fudging the numbers, the most recent week has the Wii U at 59k and the PS4 at 117k.  That isn't 65k and 100k/110k that you are saying.  If we want to take your method, the Wii U will hit 60m 901 weeks from now, the PS4 will hit 100m 778 weeks from now, based on the most recent week.  Yet you think "it won't be very hard" for the Wii U to achieve that, while the PS4 won't be able to.

icykai said:

Ok tbh 500k+ was an exaggeration, but it sure as hell rarely dropped below 200k weekly and was selling at 300~400k weekly. Oh and i was talking about the Wii.

Outside of the holidays the Wii was doing below 200k for all of 2012, and all but two weeks in 2011.  May 2010 was basically the last time the Wii was doing over 200k on a regular basis outside of the holidays.  It was also below 200k for much of the middle of 2009.  Claiming it was doing 500k+ until a few months before the new generation goes well beyond exaggeration I'd say.



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It won't



Ummmm, maybe? If it sold an average of 58k units, roughly, a week for the next six years? Kind of in doubt about that happening, given existing numbers, but to be fair the console has yet to build much games momentum, sooooo.... Imma be optimistic and say sure, why not. =D I probably won't be on this site in six years, so nobody'll be able to call me out on it if I end up wrong.



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Smear-Gel said:
TheJimbo1234 said:
Smear-Gel said: 

Last year it sold around 1.5 million in the holiday, with ONLY Mario 3D World (an unfamiliar isometric 3d mario game), during the launch of two consoles, and a much, much more negative public perception than it has now, much less this Christmas. A Christmas that has Amiibo and Smash Bros, and will also have MK8 and Mario 3D World and whatever else they wanna sell that has already been released.

At this very moment, it has 6.7 million sold. Adding 1.5 million to that (a holiday with much, much worse conditions than the upcoming one) leaves the Wii U at 8.2 million. Even leaving the opinion that it's going to have a 5 year lifecycle and be replaced in 2016, Thinking it cant sell less than 2 million between early 2015 and mid/end 2016 (which also gives it another holiday season) is literally insane. 

And that's ignoring the sales it will have between now and the 2014 holidays. These are the least optimal conditions and it would still happen.

What baffles me about you people are that you somehow ignore competition in all of this. Competition is becoming stronger against the WiiU at the same rate the WiiU is getting games. As more next gen games come out, it will seperate the WiiU from the other 2 even more, and the image of the WiiU will continue to fall. Also why would it sell another 1.5m over the holidays? With the other consoles having more games and price drops, more and more people will be lured into buying the Xbone and PS4.

Also a 5 year life cycle would be a hilariously bad idea for the WiiU. When shops stop stocking a product, it should be canned.


All the consoles will become more competitve over time. I havent forgotten them at all. If by price drops you mean Black Friday and holiday deals, then that will also happen to the Wii U too, still making it the cheapest 8th gen console.  And you're right that games not being on other consoles separate them more and more eventually, but that's also inevitable. I understand the lack of 3rd part games on other consoles coming to Wii U is a problem for many, but I just think you might be overestimating how badly it will affect the Wii U, honestly. Or underestimating the games on the console. One of the two.

Plus, the Wii U makes a great compliment to another console/PC, so that might actually help it snag some extra sales by people who still got the PS4/Xbox One.

 

I still cant imagine it selling under 1.5 million this holiday at all, really. Or the console having a life less than 5 years.

Why will they become more competitive? You are assuming all have an equal distribution of good game libraries that grow....which may not be true, especially when 2 have less power - the wiiU having the least (and very little in modern terms). 

 

The WiiU adds nothing to the market, hence the poor sales. Anything else does the same or better multiplayer. All it consist of is Nintendo games. This alone will shift a few million units as Nintendo fans want to play sequels no matter what. However, does the WiiU attract new customers? From what I have seen, it does not. This is why I doubt it will sell 1.5m again this holiday. People have other options, the WiiU is now stocked is less places, and I beleive that most people who want a WiiU already own it. 

 

 

 

zorg1000 said:
TheJimbo1234 said:
Smear-Gel said:
TheJimbo1234 said:
Smear-Gel said:
TheJimbo1234 said:

It will struggle to hit 10 million. I doubt it will even reach 12m before a replacement is brought out (if Nintendo continue with large hardware).



You are insane. Literally clinically insane. Or a big Nintendo fan who's trolling hard. It's funny though.

Or I possess the magically ability to do maths. Seriously, work it out. At the current rate (assume an average with small bumps of popular game releases), how long will it take to hit 10 million units sold?

I'm not joking - do the maths and then reply.

 

Last year it sold around 1.5 million in the holiday, with ONLY Mario 3D World (an unfamiliar isometric 3d mario game), during the launch of two consoles, and a much, much more negative public perception than it has now, much less this Christmas. A Christmas that has Amiibo and Smash Bros, and will also have MK8 and Mario 3D World and whatever else they wanna sell that has already been released.

At this very moment, it has 6.7 million sold. Adding 1.5 million to that (a holiday with much, much worse conditions than the upcoming one) leaves the Wii U at 8.2 million. Even leaving the opinion that it's going to have a 5 year lifecycle and be replaced in 2016, Thinking it cant sell less than 2 million between early 2015 and mid/end 2016 (which also gives it another holiday season) is literally insane. 

And that's ignoring the sales it will have between now and the 2014 holidays. These are the least optimal conditions and it would still happen.

What baffles me about you people are that you somehow ignore competition in all of this. Competition is becoming stronger against the WiiU at the same rate the WiiU is getting games. As more next gen games come out, it will seperate the WiiU from the other 2 even more, and the image of the WiiU will continue to fall. Also why would it sell another 1.5m over the holidays? With the other consoles having more games and price drops, more and more people will be lured into buying the Xbone and PS4.

Also a 5 year life cycle would be a hilariously bad idea for the WiiU. When shops stop stocking a product, it should be canned.

Increased competition does not necessarily mean sales will drop.

Gamecube and Xbox released at the end of 2001 giving PS2 added competition, despite that PS2 sales increased and peaked in 2002.

PSP released worldwide in 2005 giving DS strong competition, despite that sales increased for the next 3 years.

PS3 & Wii released in 2006 giving the 360 strong competition, despite that its sales increased in the following years.

So it doesnt really make sense to say Wii U sales cant increase because PS4 & Xone released last christmas.

The PS2 did well because the xbox was a new brand and people were dubious and the ps2 had the biggest game library by far (multiplatform didn't really exist back then). The gamecube came out too late and people were already hooked on their PS2 and titles such as GTA:VC and SotC etc. Sure, the PS4 is no way near this, but it has a big lead in power which will enable it to have better games, ones the wiiU simply can not match, the xbone and ps4 are easier to dev for and have more support etc. The 360 sold well because it was far cheaper and had good launch titles. The WiiU has now been out for almost 2 years and still has a limited game line up etc. To put it bluntly, the wiiU has no advantage, and the other 2 consoles have no major flaws....so I can't see why the current trend would change.



This gen will sell way less consoles on every company. So, I still believe WiiU can do over 50millions. It has got outstanding games at the moment and good future potential. Most of my friends who already have a ps3 do not want to bother buying the ps4 but the wiiu on Xmas.



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I still think wii u will sell 17-20 million...



I still think the Wii U could sell about 30 mill at least.



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TheJimbo1234 said:
Smear-Gel said:

All the consoles will become more competitve over time. I havent forgotten them at all. If by price drops you mean Black Friday and holiday deals, then that will also happen to the Wii U too, still making it the cheapest 8th gen console.  And you're right that games not being on other consoles separate them more and more eventually, but that's also inevitable. I understand the lack of 3rd part games on other consoles coming to Wii U is a problem for many, but I just think you might be overestimating how badly it will affect the Wii U, honestly. Or underestimating the games on the console. One of the two.

Plus, the Wii U makes a great compliment to another console/PC, so that might actually help it snag some extra sales by people who still got the PS4/Xbox One.

 

I still cant imagine it selling under 1.5 million this holiday at all, really. Or the console having a life less than 5 years.

Why will they become more competitive? You are assuming all have an equal distribution of good game libraries that grow....which may not be true, especially when 2 have less power - the wiiU having the least (and very little in modern terms). 

 

The WiiU adds nothing to the market, hence the poor sales. Anything else does the same or better multiplayer. All it consist of is Nintendo games. This alone will shift a few million units as Nintendo fans want to play sequels no matter what. However, does the WiiU attract new customers? From what I have seen, it does not. This is why I doubt it will sell 1.5m again this holiday. People have other options, the WiiU is now stocked is less places, and I beleive that most people who want a WiiU already own it. 

 

I still disagree with many of what you said. There are a large amount of people waiting for specific games before jumping in, Like Smash Bros, Zelda U, and a new Metroid (hopefully) to give a few examples. I understand that the distribution of good games are different, though I beleive the biggest reasons for the Wii U's failure are it's perception, number of games and advertising. All three of those are getting better over time, which is why sales should increase.



Smear-Gel said:
TheJimbo1234 said:
Smear-Gel said:

All the consoles will become more competitve over time. I havent forgotten them at all. If by price drops you mean Black Friday and holiday deals, then that will also happen to the Wii U too, still making it the cheapest 8th gen console.  And you're right that games not being on other consoles separate them more and more eventually, but that's also inevitable. I understand the lack of 3rd part games on other consoles coming to Wii U is a problem for many, but I just think you might be overestimating how badly it will affect the Wii U, honestly. Or underestimating the games on the console. One of the two.

Plus, the Wii U makes a great compliment to another console/PC, so that might actually help it snag some extra sales by people who still got the PS4/Xbox One.

 

I still cant imagine it selling under 1.5 million this holiday at all, really. Or the console having a life less than 5 years.

Why will they become more competitive? You are assuming all have an equal distribution of good game libraries that grow....which may not be true, especially when 2 have less power - the wiiU having the least (and very little in modern terms). 

 

The WiiU adds nothing to the market, hence the poor sales. Anything else does the same or better multiplayer. All it consist of is Nintendo games. This alone will shift a few million units as Nintendo fans want to play sequels no matter what. However, does the WiiU attract new customers? From what I have seen, it does not. This is why I doubt it will sell 1.5m again this holiday. People have other options, the WiiU is now stocked is less places, and I beleive that most people who want a WiiU already own it. 

 

I still disagree with many of what you said. There are a large amount of people waiting for specific games before jumping in, Like Smash Bros, Zelda U, and a new Metroid (hopefully) to give a few examples. I understand that the distribution of good games are different, though I beleive the biggest reasons for the Wii U's failure are it's perception, number of games and advertising. All three of those are getting better over time, which is why sales should increase.

But why do you disagree with the WiiU adding nothing? All you have said is "game library = console sales", yet this never actually contributes that much to a consoles sales. What about the actual console itself and the hardware? Your argument is akin to saying cars are only bought on colour and no other factor....which of course is wrong.



Wii U will definitely do better than GC just for the fact that it's a successor to a massively popular console hence gamers actually know it exists. GC was mostly invisible in it's gen. I didn't really notice it was around till Resident Evil became a temporary exclusive



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