By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Do You Still Think Wii U Can Do 25 million??

CGI-Quality said:

In regards to the PS4, at what rate, might I ask?


At 100k per week it will take the Ps4 1000 weeks (19 years :D) to get to 100 million. Ok there are ups and downs, say 250k per week which none of the current gen can reach. It will take the Ps4 7 years. It will sell more than 250k weekly? At 400k per week it will take the Ps4 4 years to get to 100 million. If you ask me, i don't think the Ps4 or any other 7th gen to get that rate with those games or those weekly sales. So yes at the rate of 100k per week the Ps4 won't reach 100 million.



Around the Network
icykai said:
CGI-Quality said:

In regards to the PS4, at what rate, might I ask?


At 100k per week it will take the Ps4 1000 weeks (19 years :D) to get to 100 million. Ok there are ups and downs, say 250k per week which none of the current gen can reach. It will take the Ps4 7 years. It will sell more than 250k weekly? At 400k per week it will take the Ps4 4 years to get to 100 million. If you ask me, i don't think the Ps4 or any other 7th gen to get that rate with those games or those weekly sales. So yes at the rate of 100k per week the Ps4 won't reach 100 million.

It's the first year, geez. Who believes that PS4 is still going to sell at this rate in 2-3 years??? Also there is always still the holiday season, I mean just to give an example, in 2009 the PS3 sold over 5.8 million of it's overall 13 million of the year in November and December. Now the PS4 is doing a lot better than the PS3 was at this point in its life, so you can imagine how it's holiday season in 2016 is going to look like...



icykai said:

At 100k per week it will take the Ps4 1000 weeks (19 years :D) to get to 100 million. Ok there are ups and downs, say 250k per week which none of the current gen can reach. It will take the Ps4 7 years. It will sell more than 250k weekly? At 400k per week it will take the Ps4 4 years to get to 100 million. If you ask me, i don't think the Ps4 or any other 7th gen to get that rate with those games or those weekly sales. So yes at the rate of 100k per week the Ps4 won't reach 100 million.

So, how exactly do you expect the Wii U to reach 50-60m?  It has been out for 87 weeks averaging ~77k per week from VGC data.  At that rate it would take nearly 700 weeks or over 13 years to reach the top end of your prediction.  Even if it was averaging 250k per week (which you don't expect any consoles to do) it would take more than 4 additional years.  Considering the Wii U won't be averaging anywhere close to 250k per week any time soon, that date will get pushed further into the future.

Also, 250k average per week isn't really that far from reality for the PS4.  Right now it is at ~243k per week since launch.  That number will continue dropping over the summer, but will pick back up during the holidays.  One week at 1m around Christmas will bring 5 100k summer weeks up to a 250k average across the 6 weeks.



icykai said:
CGI-Quality said:

In regards to the PS4, at what rate, might I ask?


At 100k per week it will take the Ps4 1000 weeks (19 years :D) to get to 100 million. Ok there are ups and downs, say 250k per week which none of the current gen can reach. It will take the Ps4 7 years. It will sell more than 250k weekly? At 400k per week it will take the Ps4 4 years to get to 100 million. If you ask me, i don't think the Ps4 or any other 7th gen to get that rate with those games or those weekly sales. So yes at the rate of 100k per week the Ps4 won't reach 100 million.


There are season where the numbers are much higher, so the 100 million prediction for PS4 is realistic.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

DerNebel said:

It's the first year, geez. Who believes that PS4 is still going to sell at this rate in 2-3 years??? Also there is always still the holiday season, I mean just to give an example, in 2009 the PS3 sold over 5.8 million of it's overall 13 million of the year in November and December. Now the PS4 is doing a lot better than the PS3 was at this point in its life, so you can imagine how it's holiday season in 2016 is going to look like...

 

CGI-Quality said:

If it were to only do 100K per week (for however long it sells to), then that would make sense. Since we know that won't be the case, such thinking doesn't work. You can't say: "at the rate of "x" week" when the machine does an average of 100K a week in its lowest weeks (and we've yet to see it in a non-launch constrained holiday).

Also, the PS4 isn't a 7th generation machine.

First of all, sorry i didn't notice i wrote 7th gen meant 8th gen. >,< Sorry about that.

Second, I didn't not say it will keep selling at 100k weekly. I said "If" it keeps selling at this rate it won't get to that number and i know it won't. 

Last, the Ps4 with the current and upcoming games won't be able to get 400k per week as a baseline. Maybe a month or 2, but never a baseline.

Unlike the last gen which had times where it sold for 1 million weekly and was almost always at 500k+ until several months before the launch of the 8th gen which led to the drop of the sales in the 7th gen.



Around the Network
icykai said:

Unlike the last gen which had times where it sold for 1 million weekly and was almost always at 500k+ until several months before the launch of the 8th gen which led to the drop of the sales in the 7th gen.

What system was "almost always at 500k+ until several months before the launch of the 8th gen"?



icykai said:
DerNebel said:

It's the first year, geez. Who believes that PS4 is still going to sell at this rate in 2-3 years??? Also there is always still the holiday season, I mean just to give an example, in 2009 the PS3 sold over 5.8 million of it's overall 13 million of the year in November and December. Now the PS4 is doing a lot better than the PS3 was at this point in its life, so you can imagine how it's holiday season in 2016 is going to look like...

 

CGI-Quality said:

If it were to only do 100K per week (for however long it sells to), then that would make sense. Since we know that won't be the case, such thinking doesn't work. You can't say: "at the rate of "x" week" when the machine does an average of 100K a week in its lowest weeks (and we've yet to see it in a non-launch constrained holiday).

Also, the PS4 isn't a 7th generation machine.

First of all, sorry i didn't notice i wrote 7th gen meant 8th gen. >,< Sorry about that.

Second, I didn't not say it will keep selling at 100k weekly. I said "If" it keeps selling at this rate it won't get to that number and i know it won't. 

Last, the Ps4 with the current and upcoming games won't be able to get 400k per week as a baseline. Maybe a month or 2, but never a baseline.

Unlike the last gen which had times where it sold for 1 million weekly and was almost always at 500k+ until several months before the launch of the 8th gen which led to the drop of the sales in the 7th gen.

What is this completely arbitrary rule that the console would need to sell 400k per week to reach 100mil? Who says that the PS4 can't have a life until 2019 or 2020? Also you mentioned somewhere that no console is going to be able to reach a 250k/week baseline (average), which I find weird, 250k per week means 13mil in a year, I can guarantee you that starting next year the PS4 is going to easily beat that for the forseeable future, heck there is even a (slim) possibility that it could do it this year, though that's not as likely as the PS4 doing it starting next year.

The PS4 should manage an average of over 300k per week easily for a couple years.



Yakuzaice said:

So, how exactly do you expect the Wii U to reach 50-60m?  It has been out for 87 weeks averaging ~77k per week from VGC data.  At that rate it would take nearly 700 weeks or over 13 years to reach the top end of your prediction.  Even if it was averaging 250k per week (which you don't expect any consoles to do) it would take more than 4 additional years.  Considering the Wii U won't be averaging anywhere close to 250k per week any time soon, that date will get pushed further into the future.

Also, 250k average per week isn't really that far from reality for the PS4.  Right now it is at ~243k per week since launch.  That number will continue dropping over the summer, but will pick back up during the holidays.  One week at 1m around Christmas will bring 5 100k summer weeks up to a 250k average across the 6 weeks.

How do expect the Wii U to reach 50-60m? I'd say as you said, there are holidays which will raise the sales. There are also games which will raise the sales so it won't be very hard to get to 50-60m if you consider those i assume.

Will it average 77k(which is actually 65k) per week? I repeat what i just said, i don't think it will stay at that rate AND i don't think the Ps4 will stay at that rate. When i made that comment i specifically said "At this rate" which was 100k. I know it can change but i was specifically speaking about how much it's going to take with that rate.

Ps4 selling 243k per week? No actually it's selling at 110k per week which is half of what you just said. No, the Ps4 will have a baseline of 250k after christmas because it doesn't have the games that will allow it to do so...

Yakuzaice said:

What system was "almost always at 500k+ until several months before the launch of the 8th gen"?

Ok tbh 500k+ was an exaggeration, but it sure as hell rarely dropped below 200k weekly and was selling at 300~400k weekly. Oh and i was talking about the Wii.

 

Metallox said:


There are season where the numbers are much higher, so the 100 million prediction for PS4 is realistic.

Before i speak about the Ps4 reaching that "realistic 100 mil", i'll give an example of a console that did reach that number. The Wii did rarely dropped below 200k weekly, did an average of 300-400k, and sometimes did 800k-1 million WEEKLY! Now for the Ps4 to do that it must start getting 300-400k during this year or the year after which is IMO not really easy.



DerNebel said:

What is this completely arbitrary rule that the console would need to sell 400k per week to reach 100mil? Who says that the PS4 can't have a life until 2019 or 2020? Also you mentioned somewhere that no console is going to be able to reach a 250k/week baseline (average), which I find weird, 250k per week means 13mil in a year, I can guarantee you that starting next year the PS4 is going to easily beat that for the forseeable future, heck there is even a (slim) possibility that it could do it this year, though that's not as likely as the PS4 doing it starting next year.

The PS4 should manage an average of over 300k per week easily for a couple years.

I don't get how the Ps4 is going to be able to do what the Wii did with a worse weekly rate. The Wii BARELY got to 100 mil with double the rate that the Ps4 is doing and from what i think is going to do. Please explain to me how the Ps4 is easily going to break the 100 mil barrier when it has a worse start than the Wii or even the PS1.

 

And i'm sorry i just don't get how we got this far from the topic (Oo).



icykai said:
DerNebel said:

What is this completely arbitrary rule that the console would need to sell 400k per week to reach 100mil? Who says that the PS4 can't have a life until 2019 or 2020? Also you mentioned somewhere that no console is going to be able to reach a 250k/week baseline (average), which I find weird, 250k per week means 13mil in a year, I can guarantee you that starting next year the PS4 is going to easily beat that for the forseeable future, heck there is even a (slim) possibility that it could do it this year, though that's not as likely as the PS4 doing it starting next year.

The PS4 should manage an average of over 300k per week easily for a couple years.

I don't get how the Ps4 is going to be able to do what the Wii did with a worse weekly rate. The Wii BARELY got to 100 mil with double the rate that the Ps4 is doing and from what i think is going to do. Please explain to me how the Ps4 is easily going to break the 100 mil barrier when it has a worse start than the Wii or even the PS1.

 

And i'm sorry i just don't get how we got this far from the topic (Oo).

2 words: longer life

It's that freaking simple. The Wii even outsold the PS2 in its first 4 years, problem was that the Wii had reached over 80% of its lifetime sales by that point, the PS2 hadn't even reached 50%. So the PS4 does not need to outsell the Wii now to have a shot at outselling it lifetime, what it needs to do is have a longer life and that is something PS consoles have historically done very well.

And btw. the PS4 is doing much better than the PS1 was at the same point in its life, the PS1 started very slow in the US and Europe.