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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

There is a very serious argument to be made about the PS4 not passing 100 mil. I think it will, but not in this generation. It will take around 2 or 3 years into next gen for it to reach that number.



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PS4 will easily sell 120 million console sales. The PS4 can sell up to 150 million console sales. The 8th generation seems to be a repeat of the 6th generation with Sony smashing Nintendo and Microsoft in combined console sales.



lulz at those thinking ps4 isn't on track to 100M.

even more lulz at those thinking this is going to be a short gen.



To me it really depends on whether Sony can make any serious inroads into the developing economies, such as China, South Korea and Eastern Europe.. They are becoming more and more affluent, and though they are heavily into PC gaming at the moment (mainly due to piracy), if Sony can market it right then they could make up for the expected contraction in Japan.

We are living in a growing global economy, even if consoles share of the global entertainment pie shrinks, the pie itself is still growing, allowing this gen to remain similar in size to previous one.



It's almost a 1/10 of the way there already




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A lot of strange predictions/reasoning in this thread. Well, I am convinced that the PS4 will pass 100M. Here's why;

  1. This gen isn't going to be as close as last gen. So if the PS4 sells 80M and te XB1 does 60M and the wiiU does 40M, that would mean there are people that would have bought an XB1 in particular that will buy a PS4 instead. This will boost sales of the PS4.
  2. My above estimates are being very generous to the other platforms.
  3. Last gen wasn't a 7 year generation because of power, it was a 7yr generation because of costs. This gen will be at least 6yrs and the new consoles coming out in the 7th year. Which will be at 2020. 
  4. Taking the 7yrs into account, most important is the cost of the consoles. Unlike the PS3, sony is actually making a profit on selling the hardware. And the hardware is at $400 not $600. This means that by the end of the PS4s 2nd year on the market it would most likely be at $300. It took the PS3 5 years to get to $300. By the PS4s 5th year, it could be as low as $200. This lower cost of entry and faster potential price drops is actually the biggest point here.
  5. We will have a pricing war this gen like we did in the 6th gen. In the 7th gen MS made a quote "we officially hd a price drop when sony announced $599". And sony spent the whole gen trying to attain price parity. This gen, especially if MS keeps losing like this, they will do what they did in the 6th gen and keep slashing the cost of the console. This will force sony to respond in kind (again like it was in the 6th gen). So we will have $199 consoles a lot sooner. At that price, there really is nothing stopping the PS4 topping 100M


is still early. but i agree if it die earlier than ps3, it wont pass 100m.
a good question is in how many copies it will sell in its peak year.



kinisking said:
DialgaMarine said:
Damagon said:
Yes, but it won't happen until way after the PS5 is out.

Without Japan 100M is almost an unreachable goal.

 The PS2 still sold 130M + if you don't include the JP sales. PS4 hasn't lost Japan. Japanese gamers simply don't have any reason to buy one just yet with loads of JRPGs still releasing on PS2. Once the heavy hitting JRPGs start coming only on PS4, Japanese gamers will hop on board.

OT - I can see the PS4 shooting past 100M. It just needs big AAA exclusives combined with strong third party support like the PS2 had. PS4 is doing far better than the PS3 was at this point in it's life because it took forever for most of it's big AAA exclusives to release, and MS used easy-to-develop-for hardware and an earlier release to garner better third party support last gen. PS4, so far, has neither of those issues. SWS just take a while to start releasing, but once they do, they pour in. PS3 was doing 150K a week at it's peak. PS4 is far from it's peak. Lets not forget it's managing to maintain a 100K + per week, despite having few AAA exclusives already released or releasing in the near future. The system will start it's real snowball when more JRPGs and the Destiny Bundle release. Not to mention, the likes of Bloodborne and Uncharted 4 are guarenteed system sellers.




Ps4 hasn't been able to do a steady 100k for like a month. but I agree it's far from its peak. I I think people are betting way to much on blood borne. Honestly destiny seems like a bigger seller for ps4

 Only because of the severe drought it's seeing ATM, while Wii-U has MK8 to help push sales, and XBone is still thriving from the price drop. Regardless of all that PS4 is still on top and did good in the June NPD. 

As far as games, of course titles like UC4 and Destiny are going to be far bigger system sellers, but BloodBorne still got a pretty good ammount of attention at E3, and the fact that people know it's from the creators of Demon's Souls/ Dark Souls will guarentee that it sells respectably at launch so long as it can back itself up with good review scores.





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jonathanalis said:
is still early. but i agree if it die earlier than ps3, it wont pass 100m.
a good question is in how many copies it will sell in its peak year.


This might be its peak year. Probably not, but its possible.



I think it's pretty much certain and you'll have different thoughts on that 2 years from now.



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