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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

Rafux on 20 July 2014
ikki5 said:
Wazowski said:

People wants so much something to fail that completely fails (itself) to see the big picture-.-

so this generation is going to last just 4 years?
may be, but is that a fact?

the PS4 shows signs of weaking?

is the competition doing great that there is no space to even think about buying PS4?

did all the AAA titles and exclusives already came out and failed?

did the new gen already been announced?

is the end of the world near? 


- the awnser is NO in all my question (dont know about the last one but by TRENDS is not likely)
... so yeah there is a very good chance PS4 do much more than 100m


Is the PS4 weakening..... yeah it is. Look at the numbers, less than 100k. Selling like a typical system that hit less than 100m.  Yeah I know you are going to tell me that "oh but it is summer" When that arguement is more a blind excuse arguement. Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time. Over all really, it is that consoles in general are weakening. We are not going to see a console hit 100m this gen at all whether it be a handheld or home console. People are not buying them like they used to. This is probably due to the fact that there are so many other platforms out there now that all cam up during the last generation. Yeah we had a huge surge of people buy the PS4, same thing happened with the Xbox at it's launch only the PS4 held on to it's momentum a lot longer. Now ofcourse, it is possible for it to skyrocket back up and yeah, maybe it will hit 100m just like what the DS did but... I don't see that happening easily.

I am more willing to bet that the majority of those people that bought the PS4 and Xbox one are people who upgrade from their previous preferred system unlike what sony is saying how people are buying them instead. The fact that they based that on how there are new PS+ accounts isn't a good way of doing it as you never needed a PS+ account with the PS3. Yeah some will be new, but not the sheer amount that they claim. They are more just trying to make it sound like no one wants anything except the PS4 but by now, that is obviously not the case going by the sales as the sales are... back to what you'd normally see a console sell.

As for AAA titles... it is not that they fail, it is that they are becoming less and less common as they cost so much to make and a lot of time, or they are just rushed to give you pretty much the same game with recycled stuff to keep the cost down. In return, they just release DLC after DLC.

Another thing, It is not certain how long this gen will last but at the same time, technology is increasing at a rapid rate, faster than what it did at the start of last gen and with the rapid technology, it is possible that this gen could be done in 5 or 6 years (though it still could be longer) just so that the companies will not fall behind. If one of them moves ahead, it will kind of force the others to.

"Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time"

Do you have the numbers for Playstation 1 and 2 first summer?



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ikki5 on 20 July 2014
Rafux said:
ikki5 said:
Wazowski said:

People wants so much something to fail that completely fails (itself) to see the big picture-.-

so this generation is going to last just 4 years?
may be, but is that a fact?

the PS4 shows signs of weaking?

is the competition doing great that there is no space to even think about buying PS4?

did all the AAA titles and exclusives already came out and failed?

did the new gen already been announced?

is the end of the world near? 


- the awnser is NO in all my question (dont know about the last one but by TRENDS is not likely)
... so yeah there is a very good chance PS4 do much more than 100m


Is the PS4 weakening..... yeah it is. Look at the numbers, less than 100k. Selling like a typical system that hit less than 100m.  Yeah I know you are going to tell me that "oh but it is summer" When that arguement is more a blind excuse arguement. Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time. Over all really, it is that consoles in general are weakening. We are not going to see a console hit 100m this gen at all whether it be a handheld or home console. People are not buying them like they used to. This is probably due to the fact that there are so many other platforms out there now that all cam up during the last generation. Yeah we had a huge surge of people buy the PS4, same thing happened with the Xbox at it's launch only the PS4 held on to it's momentum a lot longer. Now ofcourse, it is possible for it to skyrocket back up and yeah, maybe it will hit 100m just like what the DS did but... I don't see that happening easily.

I am more willing to bet that the majority of those people that bought the PS4 and Xbox one are people who upgrade from their previous preferred system unlike what sony is saying how people are buying them instead. The fact that they based that on how there are new PS+ accounts isn't a good way of doing it as you never needed a PS+ account with the PS3. Yeah some will be new, but not the sheer amount that they claim. They are more just trying to make it sound like no one wants anything except the PS4 but by now, that is obviously not the case going by the sales as the sales are... back to what you'd normally see a console sell.

As for AAA titles... it is not that they fail, it is that they are becoming less and less common as they cost so much to make and a lot of time, or they are just rushed to give you pretty much the same game with recycled stuff to keep the cost down. In return, they just release DLC after DLC.

Another thing, It is not certain how long this gen will last but at the same time, technology is increasing at a rapid rate, faster than what it did at the start of last gen and with the rapid technology, it is possible that this gen could be done in 5 or 6 years (though it still could be longer) just so that the companies will not fall behind. If one of them moves ahead, it will kind of force the others to.

"Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time"

Do you have the numbers for Playstation 1 and 2 first summer?

Nope but I do know from a bit of research that by the beginning of fall of 2003 (about 3 years of it's life time), The PS2 was at about 60 million sold world wide which would be about 20 million per year or about 1.7 million a month on average and that tells me a good indication that it probably didn't drop below 100k a week.



chapset on 21 July 2014
ikki5 said:
Wazowski said:

People wants so much something to fail that completely fails (itself) to see the big picture-.-

so this generation is going to last just 4 years?
may be, but is that a fact?

the PS4 shows signs of weaking?

is the competition doing great that there is no space to even think about buying PS4?

did all the AAA titles and exclusives already came out and failed?

did the new gen already been announced?

is the end of the world near? 


- the awnser is NO in all my question (dont know about the last one but by TRENDS is not likely)
... so yeah there is a very good chance PS4 do much more than 100m


Is the PS4 weakening..... yeah it is. Look at the numbers, less than 100k. Selling like a typical system that hit less than 100m.  Yeah I know you are going to tell me that "oh but it is summer" When that arguement is more a blind excuse arguement. Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time. Over all really, it is that consoles in general are weakening. We are not going to see a console hit 100m this gen at all whether it be a handheld or home console. People are not buying them like they used to. This is probably due to the fact that there are so many other platforms out there now that all cam up during the last generation. Yeah we had a huge surge of people buy the PS4, same thing happened with the Xbox at it's launch only the PS4 held on to it's momentum a lot longer. Now ofcourse, it is possible for it to skyrocket back up and yeah, maybe it will hit 100m just like what the DS did but... I don't see that happening easily.

I am more willing to bet that the majority of those people that bought the PS4 and Xbox one are people who upgrade from their previous preferred system unlike what sony is saying how people are buying them instead. The fact that they based that on how there are new PS+ accounts isn't a good way of doing it as you never needed a PS+ account with the PS3. Yeah some will be new, but not the sheer amount that they claim. They are more just trying to make it sound like no one wants anything except the PS4 but by now, that is obviously not the case going by the sales as the sales are... back to what you'd normally see a console sell.

As for AAA titles... it is not that they fail, it is that they are becoming less and less common as they cost so much to make and a lot of time, or they are just rushed to give you pretty much the same game with recycled stuff to keep the cost down. In return, they just release DLC after DLC.

Another thing, It is not certain how long this gen will last but at the same time, technology is increasing at a rapid rate, faster than what it did at the start of last gen and with the rapid technology, it is possible that this gen could be done in 5 or 6 years (though it still could be longer) just so that the companies will not fall behind. If one of them moves ahead, it will kind of force the others to.

Lol can you get banned for posting so much nonsense

look at the freaking ds buddy

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/38508/Global/

now 150million plus

The ps3 dipped below 70k and now it's at 83million Jesus



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

Rafux on 21 July 2014
ikki5 said:
Rafux said:
ikki5 said:
Wazowski said:

People wants so much something to fail that completely fails (itself) to see the big picture-.-

so this generation is going to last just 4 years?
may be, but is that a fact?

the PS4 shows signs of weaking?

is the competition doing great that there is no space to even think about buying PS4?

did all the AAA titles and exclusives already came out and failed?

did the new gen already been announced?

is the end of the world near? 


- the awnser is NO in all my question (dont know about the last one but by TRENDS is not likely)
... so yeah there is a very good chance PS4 do much more than 100m


Is the PS4 weakening..... yeah it is. Look at the numbers, less than 100k. Selling like a typical system that hit less than 100m.  Yeah I know you are going to tell me that "oh but it is summer" When that arguement is more a blind excuse arguement. Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time. Over all really, it is that consoles in general are weakening. We are not going to see a console hit 100m this gen at all whether it be a handheld or home console. People are not buying them like they used to. This is probably due to the fact that there are so many other platforms out there now that all cam up during the last generation. Yeah we had a huge surge of people buy the PS4, same thing happened with the Xbox at it's launch only the PS4 held on to it's momentum a lot longer. Now ofcourse, it is possible for it to skyrocket back up and yeah, maybe it will hit 100m just like what the DS did but... I don't see that happening easily.

I am more willing to bet that the majority of those people that bought the PS4 and Xbox one are people who upgrade from their previous preferred system unlike what sony is saying how people are buying them instead. The fact that they based that on how there are new PS+ accounts isn't a good way of doing it as you never needed a PS+ account with the PS3. Yeah some will be new, but not the sheer amount that they claim. They are more just trying to make it sound like no one wants anything except the PS4 but by now, that is obviously not the case going by the sales as the sales are... back to what you'd normally see a console sell.

As for AAA titles... it is not that they fail, it is that they are becoming less and less common as they cost so much to make and a lot of time, or they are just rushed to give you pretty much the same game with recycled stuff to keep the cost down. In return, they just release DLC after DLC.

Another thing, It is not certain how long this gen will last but at the same time, technology is increasing at a rapid rate, faster than what it did at the start of last gen and with the rapid technology, it is possible that this gen could be done in 5 or 6 years (though it still could be longer) just so that the companies will not fall behind. If one of them moves ahead, it will kind of force the others to.

"Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time"

Do you have the numbers for Playstation 1 and 2 first summer?

Nope but I do know from a bit of research that by the beginning of fall of 2003 (about 3 years of it's life time), The PS2 was at about 60 million sold world wide which would be about 20 million per year or about 1.7 million a month on average and that tells me a good indication that it probably didn't drop below 100k a week.

Then what about PS1? It reached 100M

But anyway the point is that even if PS2 never dropped below 100K that doesn't mean PS4 won't reach 100M. PS4 is still tracking ahead with heavy competition while PS2 was all by itself (sorry Dreamcast).

There are things called peak years you know, PS4 is still tracking ahead of PS2 and at the very least give the PS4 3 years before calling it doomed to not past 100M



nitekrawler1285 on 21 July 2014
Rafux said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.

Core games are what the large 3rd party industry developers want to make.  They irrationally exclude developing on the Wii while it crushed the competition specifically because they don't want to make other kinds of games.  Nintendo destroys their business because they don't want to make other types of games.  Why should I expect them to want to make those other kinds of games now until forced by market reality?

Why are so many Next gen games getting delayed if this process is so simple?  Why are they trying to make more money back on what were in some cases unsuccessful attemps such as TR or maximize profits in case of TLoU?  Because it's expensive and takes  along time make titles ground up for the new consoles.  Japan didn't take to HD gaming at all.  

Easier money to the people who makes games is a HUGE threat.  It's why iOS has so many developers and so much exclusive software.  As the rewards for one continue to rise while the others don't it's more likely attention will shift.   As Japanese developers raise the price of apps there will be serious ramifications when other publishers catch on to the practice.  A 40 dollar app gives $28 when a $60 console game might bring in $27.  70% vs 45% 

To drive home the bolded.  The certification process is much faster or non existant for that app or free. On consoles that can cost tens of thousands of dollars.   Developer fees for iOS are $99 a year. Because of for the time lower resolution and specs the games cost less to make.  Larger peice of the pie for sooooo much less work.  Go look at the top 100 on either store and you already see alot of very familiar IPs from familiar publishers. EA and SE being two large players .  

Let's face it. Sony, MS and Nintendo dont have the best ecosystem today for development and require costly ventures. That isn't sustainable but for a very select few and maybe not even then.  It can't, wont , and isn't being ignored.  I don't see how cutting out the mid market is gonna do anything to help sales.  It's now a completely up market industry.  



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WagnerPaiva on 21 July 2014
Lawlight said:
WagnerPaiva said:

At the current rate it will sell around 500k every month, or 6 million a year, plus 2 million every holiday, so, 8 million a year.
So, I guess it will get to 64 million or so in 8 years, when it will be dropped for good.

Of course, Sony can go into bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years, so, in that case, 20 or 30 million, and a lot of sad gamers.=/


So, the PS4 already sold 14% of its LTD sales?

64 million is a lot, isn´t? I am quite happy with my PS4, and, hey, I even having a  little fun with the free Guacamelee MS gave me on XBOX ONE as well, so it is all good for now. 



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

ikki5 on 21 July 2014
chapset said:

Lol can you get banned for posting so much nonsense

look at the freaking ds buddy

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/38508/Global/

now 150million plus

The ps3 dipped below 70k and now it's at 83million Jesus

Lol, I'm sorry, but it looks like you left off at what you hilighted. I also understood that the point of forums was to discuss things provided they remained on topic. Just because you don't like what someone says, don't mean that it is nonsense. But I brought up the fact that the DS did that and that it could be possible. But like I said, I don't see it happening because the DS was what I'd call an outlier or an anomaly. You don't usually get systems dropping a bunch and then trippling or quadrupling their numbers 2,3 or 4 years down the road. But this is what got me on the PS4 with all the claims. The PS4 had a killer release, yeah, it did absolutly amazing. But then at the same time, The Xbox One did the exact same. The only difference, Sony rode the wave longer and then numbers carried for a longer period of time. Now they are all dropping, weekly sales games are closing in. and even with the killer start, for something that people claim will sell over 100 mil, It is just odd for it to fall so much, so fast. Like come on, it is selling like what the old consoles were. It's now it is back to just a normal week of numbers for consoles that sold 80 mil. Yeah that starting boost will help push the console but from now on, we are just going to see the normal rollercoaster. Games get release, sales jump and fall, holidays will happen and it will be a roller coaster like it always has. The other thing is that people compare the PS4 and the PS3's start when we all know, the PS3 has some massive issues, was almost double the cost and yet... no one ever wants to factor in those facts. These are things the PS4 didn't start with and doesn't have which is why i am thinking it had such a huge launch. Yeah, things may change, but with what has been going on. I highly doubt it.



Sharu on 21 July 2014

For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.



Lawlight on 21 July 2014
WagnerPaiva said:
Lawlight said:
WagnerPaiva said:

At the current rate it will sell around 500k every month, or 6 million a year, plus 2 million every holiday, so, 8 million a year.
So, I guess it will get to 64 million or so in 8 years, when it will be dropped for good.

Of course, Sony can go into bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years, so, in that case, 20 or 30 million, and a lot of sad gamers.=/


So, the PS4 already sold 14% of its LTD sales?

64 million is a lot, isn´t? I am quite happy with my PS4, and, hey, I even having a  little fun with the free Guacamelee MS gave me on XBOX ONE as well, so it is all good for now. 


It is a lot but not for a PS console.



biglittlesps on 21 July 2014
Sharu said:
For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.

Consoles sells most of the year sales during Holidays and big game releases which will be big numbers to balance the average sales of the year. So, you cant expect the PS4 to do 400k every week when it doesn't have any big exclusives released so far and this is Summer time where the sales are going to drop every year.



GAMING is not about spending hours to pass/waste our time just for fun,

its a Feeling/Experience about a VIRTUAL WORLD we can never be in real, and realizing some of our dreams (also creating new ones).

So, Feel Emotions, Experience Adventure/Action, Challenge Game, Solve puzzles and Have fun.

PlayStation is about all-round "New experiences" using new IP's to provide great diversity for everyone.

Xbox is always about Online and Shooting.

Nintendo is always about Fun games and milking IP's.