Isn't there a Sony gamers' day next week, I think we'll find out some stuff then, however, Killzone 2 is going to be shown at E3, so I think that we still see many releases being announced then. Plus I would add Uncharted to that list, all the crash games sold way over 3M, and the first Jak sold over 3M, I would guess that the new IP will provide a great boost to Naughty Dog's sales as introducing new IPs for the previous platforms From what I`ve heard, uncharted is going to be a bit more "mature" than those 2 games...besides, Crash and Jak games got released in a console with a far bigger uberbase, ...so...don´t expect that much. Same for Heavenly Sword, it looks very good obviously ( I liked a lot the scene in one of Heroes episode, but gameplay seems to be too generic).

The telling point to me for the Wii is if Nintendo can get their big hitters out this year before the demand drops to keep the gamers happy until the 2nd wave of games (No more heroes, nights, project rygar, project treasure island z, kopoona etc).  I expect they will but keep watching each months figures expecting them to drop any time now - these next few months will prove if it's a fad or not.

I feel the XB360 though - in terms of market percentage is at it's peak now as the PS3 will always  improve, it just needs a price cut, some of these killer apps and more PS3 / PSP connectivity.

All of the PS3 fans say that all Sony needs is a price drop and some killer apps to dominate the market.  Well, first of all, the other systems can drop their price too. I find it a wonder that the 360 hasn't dropped to $300 yet, I have no idea what their strategy is.  I mean, they could be beating the Wii right now.  $300 versus $250?  Power of the system does matter and people would see that.  It won't be too long until they drop the price, though.  Mark my words, they will drop the price before the PS3 does, then it will be a $300 system versus a $600 system.  Judging by Nintendo's goal of 20 million Wiis sold by next April they probably want the Wii to stay completely sold out.  I think if sales start to lag they will drop the price to $200, $150 seems a bit far-fetched.  They could easily drop it to $150 though, they're making a profit on it at the moment and they've got 6 billion dollars in the bank.  Imagine a $150, $300, $500 competition and keep in mind the $300 one is just as powerful as the $500 one.  I think $300 is percieved as relatively cheap based on Wii sales and $500 is still considered expensive as hell.  Fans were already in a rage when it was believed that the PS3 would be $500 and blow away the Xbox 360 in power, I remember boards at those times.

To make things worse for Sony, a lot of their most anticipated games are on the 360.  You can gather some information from this poll: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2748.  The only thing it lacks is Resident Evil 5.  I would say their most anticipated games are Final Fantasy XIII, Metal Gear Solid 4, Grand Theft Auto 4, Resident Evil 5, Assassin's Creed, and Devil May Cry 4 in that order.  4 out of those 6 games are on the 360 which is going to be $300 cheaper.  This is in addition to games on the 360 like Halo 3, Blue Dragon, Fable 2, and Mass Effect.  MGS4 and FFXIII are most likely not coming out this holiday season.  A Sony guy even said the exclusitivity of FFXIII is not certain.  They could go to the 360 where they would make a lot of money. 

 I think at this point it will take a miracle to save Sony from last place.  

 Of course, they can take comfort in knowing that blu-ray is going to win.

Here's the 3 million sellers as I see it. Games which which may or may not sell 3 million, but at least have a chance, are stared. All 3 platforms: Madden, Guitar Hero*, Need For Speed (I'm assuming they'll be one this year as always), FIFA, Pro Evo (are these two football games confirmed for everything? I assume they will be). 360 + PS3: GTA4 PS3 exclusive: Ratchet*, MGS4. 360 exclusive: Halo Wii exclusive: Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros., Wii Health*, Wii Music*, Metroid*, Mario + Sonic*, MySims*. Assassin's Creed, Killzone, Too Human, Mass Effect, Lair and all these others people are naming won't get up towards 3 million simply because all of them target a young male audience, who already has established franchises they're going for this year in Halo, GTA, MGS, SSBB and Metroid. Maybe one of those games could be a breakout 3-million seller like Gears of War was last year, if only there weren't a whole bunch of established IP with 2+ million sales potential playing to that audience already. The way I see it, the Wii's lineup is stacked. It has two sure-fire hits, it has the continuing appeal of Sports/Play, and it has a large amount of potential breakout hits. PS3's biggest exclusive is likely to move to next year, and Ratchet never reached 3 million sales even on PS2. XBox hasn't proved its ability to move 3 million of anything except Halo and now Gears, and won't move 3 million of a non-Halo game in a Halo launch year. I probably missed some games in there, though.

Ratchet to be a big game? Well... maybe... I just hope he doesn't mess up when he goes to the PS3 like Spyro did when he moved to the PS2.