i really really reaaaally think youre overestimating what some of those games are going to do for the ps4. uncharted is a proven series, gran turismo has been proven in the past, but i dont think its going to do anything for pushing consoles. and yes, youre right about ps4 benefitting from third party releases. that is a huge thing sony has going for it, but microsoft is going to have tons of exclusive content, you better believe its coming. seriously. and NEVER doubt the power of halo. thats certainly something i have learned over the past ten years. halo puts to shame basically anything sony has (sales wise). and the big guns nintendo has, they benefit hardware sales over the long haul whereas sony's releases will provide a bump for said week. also, ps4 isnt going to last as long as people think. if people think sony isnt coming out with ps5 until 2020 or later, they're crazy.

I agree with PS5 in 2020/2021, but as Sony consoles have demonstrated in the past, and is demonstrating now, they have legs beyond anything else. Do you live in US? If so then your view on GT is understandable, but in Europe it's huge. Sony will undoubtedly have the midt long lives console, and when you pair that with a great start you get market domination. The Wii only had the good start though, and that's why it didn't do PS2 like numbers (and no, I'm not saying the PS4 will.)

BTW out bets are on.

im sorry, i meant that the other way around. ps5 is coming out BEFORE 2020. thats what i meant. ps4 isnt going to be able to last that long without a successor. yes, i live in america, so i dont know what it does for europe's numbers.

yeah, bets are on.

x1 is going to put up a good fight, and really, i wouldnt be surprised if nintendo owned this holiday season. are you going to be surprised if wii u sells the most in november or december? i really wouldnt be. 

Well, the one that is doing better now than then is the Wii U, which has been in the biggest drought - since MK8, nothing notable enough to even get onto a chart has released. And it's holding at 60k. So the point is that the Wii U baseline has jumped up. Meanwhile, PS4 sales had been quite high nearer to launch, but are dropping down - what looked like a very high baseline now appears to be an inflated number, with the true baseline being closer to 100k.

Yes, the x1 and the Wii US biggest advantage is the holidays, But I Expect this to be largely offset by the face that the PS4 is the, to sur the words of others 'The go-to console' of the 8th gen. Parents will buy what others buy, and so far that is the PS4.

I will be surprised if the Wii U sells the most in Nov/Dec. I think both the Wii U and the XO might get a larger percentage boost than the PS4, But I still expect the PS4 to sell the most units.

What's your thoughts about next year possibly being the Wii Us peak year? Zelda, despite how awesome it is, doesn't sell as many consoles as SSB and MK.

Instead of people speculating all day long, perhaps someone can be kind enough to chart a line graph with relative market share performance on a weekly basis so that we can base our debates on the analysis of said graph?

Otherwise, everything prior to the graph being posted is pure opinion and has very little basis. Hell, with it so early in and few/none of the big titles out yet, everything is speculation anyway.

But if you want people to take you seriously, RubberW, (IMO) you should at least do the work of putting up the graph as well as update it. Keep the graph going, and (who knows?), trends might prove you right. Or maybe not (I hope you know how to keep an open mind).

Obviously, the PS4's sales right now are boosted by TLOU:RE but its baseline is 100K plus, no console except maybe the XB1 are even close to the PS4's launch sales. It had to decrease it wouldn't make snese otherwise.

Wait... why would the PS4 sell less at the end of the generation than the PS3? o.O It had some launch problems, but they weren't RROD-level epidemic, so I don't think it would bloat the PS3 numbers much and, when we get right down to it, the PS3 had every possible disadvantage last gen. Frankly, I'm kind of amazed it caught up to the Xbox 360 at all (before anyone jumps me, I love my console, but Jesus, it was getting its aaaaaass kicked in the early years xD ) regardless of its European advantage. Without all of that holding it back, and with surprisingly strong sales during one of the quietest parts of the year, during what will likely be the weakest year of its lifespan, just seem to be lowballin it even to say it would break even with the PS3. o.O

Xbox One numbers I have no real comment for, because I am curious how the next couple of years is going to go. Microsoft's done a very good job climbing out of the trench they dug for themselves last year, but at the same time, the series of titles being ported to PC suggest that they might be headed for some tripwire. -_- I'm reserving judgement until I see if Quantum Break and Sunset Overdrive are staying on X1, or also hopping to PC. I know that Halo is a big seller, but if Microsoft ends up relying on Halo/Gears/Forza/Fable again, they're liable to continue to get their butt kicked since they don't have the sales momentum advantage in the U.S. this time to compensate for a lack of varied exclusives.

Anyway, hopefully they intend to invest in some new IPs, and bolster their first party studios instead of relying too heavily on third parties.

I think you might have misread my post. My point about the baseline wasn't about the sales right at launch, but "nearer" to launch - as in, like March/April. In March/April, people were making observations, suggesting where the generation would end up by looking at the sales numbers around that time. And this thread is pointing out, in essence, that expectations were out of whack as a result. Add the fact that the Wii U has a new, higher baseline than it did at the time, and that Xbox One seems to be stabilising at about 52k or so (whereas it had dropped to around 40k through May), and you can see why this thread was created. It was never about attacking the PS4. It was always about renormalising expectations. Many people still seem to expect something like 60% PS4, 30% Xbox One, and 10% Wii U with this generation, and the numbers simply do not support that view any more.

its a tough call. 2015 or 2016 could be its peak year. the sales will probably be pretty close both years. 

if its peak year is 2015 with like six million consoles sold that year.. then yeah, youre going to end up winning all aspects of the bet lol. so yeah, it has to be more than that. 

honestly, i just dont have faith in the ps4 whatsoever. the hype for this console has been insane, and i dont understand why. i really just dont get it and maybe its kind of blinding my judgement, here. i dont see why people are losing their shit over this console and i cant see the hype lasting if the coming years are as dry as this one was. i think people will get worn out and be looking for different kinds of experiences. i guess this is the basis of my entire prediction.