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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How well will Captain Toad sell?

ice on 06 July 2014

Less than 2 mill LT for sure



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MoHasanie on 06 July 2014

500k this holiday, 1.2 million LT.



    

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Ultrashroomz on 06 July 2014

700-800k Holiday, 1.5 Mil LT.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

mii-gamer on 06 July 2014

200 000 - 300 000 this holiday, it doesn't look like a big seller

LTD 1.5 million?



Skidonti on 06 July 2014
KLXVER said:
Skidonti said:

But 3D World itself is only at like 2.5 million as of now. I don't really see it selling over 4.5 million. (and that's if another 3D mario isn't announced for WiiU)

I think Captain Toad can sell 1.4 million lifetime. It's kinda niche, not the big headliner this holiday, mostly a puzzle platformer, and a little harder to market than other titles, if Nintendo puts anything in its marketing budget at all. For what it is I think 1.4 million is a hit and a good success


3D World will keep selling as long as the WiiU is alive I think. Im guessing around 8 million at least.

I dunno. I don't see it being heavily bundled in the future or anything. It will sell as long as WiiU does, but that won't be all that long and those sales will be slow. I may have lowballed the first guess but I still don't think it has the power to pass 5.5 lifetime.

But regardless of that, I don't see why people think Captain Toad will have a shot at such success as a niche, slow, not exciting to market puzzle spinoff that probably won't have near the legs. I stick by 1.4 million, which is pretty good for a game like this in my books, especially on WiiU.I don't know why people expect it to outperform Kirby/Yoshi/etc.

Though I know I'm picking it up if it has enough content.



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jlmurph2 on 06 July 2014
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


I think it will ride on the success of 3D world. 


3D World is tracking far below pretty much every other 3D Mario game.  Optimistically (without bundling) 3D World will sell about 6-7 million.  I don't think 2/3 of those people are going to buy Captain Toad as many are predicting.


Wii Music sold like 3.5 million, so I think Treasure Tracker can beat that.


Lol no, dont try comparing any Wii games' sales to try  and predict the sales for Wii U games.



KLXVER on 06 July 2014
jlmurph2 said:


Lol no, dont try comparing any Wii games' sales to try  and predict the sales for Wii U games.


Im just saying that if a shitty game can do 3.5 million, then Treasure Tracker will beat it.



MegaManX on 06 July 2014

I don't see this outselling DKTF which is <600K, I also think this will get drowned out in the holiday sales if it even releases this year. I'll say 150K holidays, 750K lifetime. Slightly better if it releases next year.



tbone51 on 06 July 2014
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


This. I see 600k-1.2mil  lifetime. There is nothing on it selling 2mil+. It'll be a cool puzzle game, but its still Toad. SM3DW is barely over 2mil currently, dont see how this game would do half of that lifetime.

That said i hope the game has alot of content and is sold either $40 or $50.



Skidonti on 06 July 2014
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:


3D World is tracking far below pretty much every other 3D Mario game.  Optimistically (without bundling) 3D World will sell about 6-7 million.  I don't think 2/3 of those people are going to buy Captain Toad as many are predicting.


Wii Music sold like 3.5 million, so I think Treasure Tracker can beat that.

Oh. Okay then. Now I see. Those two games are very similar, after all.