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Forums - Gaming Discussion - I honestly believe gaming PCs are becoming niche market

Intrinsic said:
zarx said:
And yet high end GPU sales are up YoY

That means so litle you will be shocked. For all those talking about YOY sales please try and understand this.

On Wednesday afternoon, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA ) reported stellar Q4 results. Revenue grew 9% sequentially and 3% year over year to $1.14 billion, which was well ahead of the company's guidance range of $1.05 billion plus or minus 2%.

NVIDIA's strong results were driven not by its growth initiatives in mobile computing or cloud-based graphics processors, but by its core GPU business.

As a result of strong demand from gamers and market share gains, NVIDIA grew sales of its high-end GeForce GTX GPUs nearly 50% year over year in Q4. This was the primary factor driving 14% revenue growth in the GPU business, which more than offset a year-over-year decline in sales of Tegra mobile processors. Strong sales of high-end GPUs also helped NVIDIA post record annual gross margin of 54.9%.

 

So lets break that down. So sales as a company greaw 3% YOY and it had highend GPUs to thank for that. Remember, "highend" GPUs typically cost anywhere ebtween $500 and $1000 and then some. But lets put it at an average of $750. We are talking highend GPUs as nvidia clearly stated. Not mobile or general average GPUs. They also said it was responsible for 14% growth revenue. Now they made $1.14B of overall revenue in that quater. So lets extrapolate that to a cool $4B for 4 quaters. Now lets say 50% of all that revenue is due to highend GPUs and ignore most of what else nvidia does as a business (impossibly high estimate but this outlandish estimat will help put things in perspective).

At $750 average for a high-end GPU, and looking at $2B in sales... we are looking at yearly sales of 2.67M. Mind you, if you really take everything into consoderation, its impossible that nvidia is selling this many GPUs with an averag price of $750. Its probably around half that at best. So coming and just saying YOY growth or whatever is up really doesn't mean anything besides sounding and looking good on a investor report. Oh and two words "BITCOIN MINING"

To OP:

PC gaming has and will always be a niche. Its just becoming a very very very very very loud niche. But its still a niche regardless. Its just like looking at fans of a certain platform on these forums. If you go by post count or how many they seem to be you would expect that platform to outsell everything else. But that platform ends up seling less than a third of what the leading platform is selling every month. Thats how PC gaming is too.

Your calculations are based on the assumption that the retail price goes entirely to nvidia, it does not, theres retailer markup, manufacturer markup and so on, then theres operating costs, production costs and so on.

Unless of course you think high end gpu's grow on trees for free and are shipped out to retailers where retailers sell them on and don't take a penny for themselves.

Secondly, everyone who is even half serious about bitcoin mining knows AMD cards give you much better performance.

Thirdly, your assumption that the average price for $750 is WAY overinflated, average is closer to 350, cards like the GTX760 are still high end cards and are considerably more commonly sold than the 780's, 780TI's and Titans.

Then consider that Nvidia isnt the only game in town, combine it with AMD's high end card sales and you get your yearly sales figure.

Even at your diabolically skewed-out-of-reality-to-fit-your-argument numbers would put that at over 5 million HIGH END gpus sold a year, when in reality the number for nvidia and amd high end cards combined will be closer to 14m a year.

sheesh



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I still play BF3 on my PC, but yeah I love the casualness of home consoles!



I agree. Handheld, console, and the gaming PC markets are all dying.



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

Intrinsic said:
Scoobes said:

That kind of depends on what NVidia mean by high-end. They could be including anything down to a GTX 770 (which they describe as "high performance", could even be a 760 which they describe as "powerful") which can be bought for $330, up to a Titan Z at $1000+. The GTX 770 alone would sell far more than the other products for the sole reason it's cheaper (check the Steam hardware survey and you'll also see it's one of the better performing DX11 cards).

That completely throws off your average of $750. Then you have to remember that the money a consumer pays for that card is split between NVidia, the card manufacturer (e.g. Gigabyte, EVGA) and the retailer.  Basically, you're calculations are pretty far off base.

Thank you. Of course my calculations are far off base. I was actually being really really really generous. Its easy to spin things around and look for loop holes than make thing seem a lot better than they actually are and that is why i chose to be somewhat unrealistic. You can say it depends on what nvidia considers as high end.... but when looking for a real average, we are supposed to add up the individual prices of all the dedicated GPUs nvidia makes then didvide that by the number of GPUs available. If you did that. Even taking $150 gpus into onsideration all up to the $3000 GPUs, you will see that you end up with an average much higher than my $750. And hen you look at sales, i didnt take a ton of things into consideration cause I wanted their sales to be really really high.

Even at those really really high sales, we are still looking at less than 2M sales per year..... in reality for high end dedicated gpus this is actually way less than that. And that is the point i was trying to make. YOY growth doesn't mean anything cause its not really painting the full picture. And fot all you know, they may have sold 750K dedicated GPUs last year then sell 1M GPUs this year and be trumpetting YOY sales growth. That doesn't mean shit.

If they "really" were doing so groundbreakingly well, they wouldn't be giving percentages... they would be showing off hard cold numbers and saying we sold this and that million GPUs last year bla bla bla.... whenever you see a company talking more about percentages or YOY sales instead of just giving hardcold numbers... then you know they are hiding something. Its literally the business defination of the word "spin".

The average you've taken is unrealistic as sales of the lower end chips will be a lot more than the high end versions. The average cost of a consumer purchased Nvidia GPU is in no way going to be >$750. The sales of GPUs above $500 is niche, so the actualy average would be relatively low by comparison, meaning more GPUs sold. 

But regardless, how is 2 million discrete GPUs in 3 months a bad thing? Considering upgrade cycles of anywhere between 1-4 years and the growth of embedded GPUs, the revenue numbers and discrete GPU growth is actually pretty good.



First of all, sorry for my english, i hope you understand

PC relies on "graphicaly intensive games"

People must understand that there a diference between a AAA and a "graphicaly intensive" game, one thing is not necessarily related to the other, the only thing you need to do to have a graphicaly intensive game is to add effects, polygons, things on the screen, shadows

things that are not very hard to do, you can do in your home, you dont need to be a blockbuster, you dont need to be cinematic, to do mocap, acting and voice acting and all this we have today, in fact when you look to half life 2 or even the first crysis you se nothing ou very little of this but they are very graphicaly intensive games with a lot of options that could make the game became ( in the case of half life 2) a ps2 game (or less than that) or a ps3 game depends on what you choose

Each effect had a sense, its not like today that most of them make no diference to the game, most of them are there just to justify a top gpu



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I disagree based on more of my friends getting PCs this gen instead of xboxes.



 

 

MoHasanie said:
I agree. Handheld, console, and the gaming PC markets are all dying.

It's time for mobile gaming to take over completely!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

Scoobes said:

The average you've taken is unrealistic as sales of the lower end chips will be a lot more than the high end versions. The average cost of a consumer purchased Nvidia GPU is in no way going to be >$750. The sales of GPUs above $500 is niche, so the actualy average would be relatively low by comparison, meaning more GPUs sold. 

But regardless, how is 2 million discrete GPUs in 3 months a bad thing? Considering upgrade cycles of anywhere between 1-4 years and the growth of embedded GPUs, the revenue numbers and discrete GPU growth is actually pretty good.

Errr.... 2M discrete GPUs in 3 months? You must have not read what I posted. Which is kinda what happens a lot in threads like these, peeople just come and give their perspective and ignore what everyone else says.

Those estimates weren't for ONE quater.... it was for an entire year. So you are looking at 2M per year not in 3 months. And I arrived at this from nvidias very own earning report.

Now I know I over estimated things but I was just trying to paint a picture. But fine, since a lot here want to be specific lets go into specifics.

Nvidia posted overall revenue of $1.14 billion for one quater. And announced that it was up 3% YOY in the same quater. Now lets be generous and assume that it had similar results for all its previous quaters. That puts its yearly total revenue at approx $4.5B. Now that total revenue isn't just profits, its "total revenue" for that year.

And we all know nvidia doesn't only make discrete GPUs. They make mobile GPUs, tegra SOC and even the nvidia shield console. They also provide GPUs for server based applications and services.

So lets be realistic, how much of that $4.5 billion do you guys think realistically is attributed to just its discrete GPU market all considering? $1B? $2B??? 

And now even if we want to assume that everyone that buys a GPU only buys one in the $350 range... at $1B of revenue for that its around 3M GPUs per year. (2.8+ but I am rounding up). And this is really low balling it cause we are assuming that every GPU sold is in the $350 price average bracket. I don't see how 3M GPUs sold in a year doesn't make PC gaming in general a niche market. And if we were to be honest here, and really factored in all its type of GPUss including those that retail for over $500. This number could drop a lot faster.

I am not saying 3M in sales is bad... but its definately niche for an entire year. Even more so when you start to look at how much of that number are actually new buyers and not just people upgrading their PCs.

I will end by saying again. If Nvidia sells like 5-10M GPUs a year, be rest assured they will not just be talking about revenue and percentages in their financial reports. They will hammer those sales numbers into everyones skulls and say things like we sold more GPUs than the WiiU or as much as the PS4...etc. Its just busines. In financial reports, the real telling things aren't what is said... its usually whats not said.



Nettles said:

Digital distribution saved PC gaming, console gaming will struggle with that transition.Will a 6-7 year old kid be able to work it out? 


What? I guess you have not played LoL, also smartphones and tablets are digital only... 



Intrinsic said:

Errr.... 2M discrete GPUs in 3 months? You must have not read what I posted. Which is kinda what happens a lot in threads like these, peeople just come and give their perspective and ignore what everyone else says.

Those estimates weren't for ONE quater.... it was for an entire year. So you are looking at 2M per year not in 3 months. And I arrived at this from nvidias very own earning report.

Now I know I over estimated things but I was just trying to paint a picture. But fine, since a lot here want to be specific lets go into specifics.

Nvidia posted overall revenue of $1.14 billion for one quater. And announced that it was up 3% YOY in the same quater. Now lets be generous and assume that it had similar results for all its previous quaters. That puts its yearly total revenue at approx $4.5B. Now that total revenue isn't just profits, its "total revenue" for that year.

And we all know nvidia doesn't only make discrete GPUs. They make mobile GPUs, tegra SOC and even the nvidia shield console. They also provide GPUs for server based applications and services.

So lets be realistic, how much of that $4.5 billion do you guys think realistically is attributed to just its discrete GPU market all considering? $1B? $2B??? 

And now even if we want to assume that everyone that buys a GPU only buys one in the $350 range... at $1B of revenue for that its around 3M GPUs per year. (2.8+ but I am rounding up). And this is really low balling it cause we are assuming that every GPU sold is in the $350 price average bracket. I don't see how 3M GPUs sold in a year doesn't make PC gaming in general a niche market. And if we were to be honest here, and really factored in all its type of GPUss including those that retail for over $500. This number could drop a lot faster.

I am not saying 3M in sales is bad... but its definately niche for an entire year. Even more so when you start to look at how much of that number are actually new buyers and not just people upgrading their PCs.

I will end by saying again. If Nvidia sells like 5-10M GPUs a year, be rest assured they will not just be talking about revenue and percentages in their financial reports. They will hammer those sales numbers into everyones skulls and say things like we sold more GPUs than the WiiU or as much as the PS4...etc. Its just busines. In financial reports, the real telling things aren't what is said... its usually whats not said.


Good read. Thanks. Very detailed explanation.