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How Much Will Xbox One lead Wii U by the End of the Year?

Forums - Gaming Discussion - How Much Will Xbox One lead Wii U by the End of the Year?

MS played their cards and they failed, last one being the 400 sku. I expect the wiiu to increase the gap with every game coming this year. the x1 will only see a slight bump with MCC, everithing else for the x1 will not increase sales much. its not going to pass 8mil this year. I can see the wii u do 9 at least,



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It is a tough match between the console with most exclusives in sacrifice of multiplatform games and the one with all multiplatform titles but few exclusives. History show that gamers change alliance between generations. I am afraid that Sony conquered many Microsoft's customers by offering a console with higher specs for a lower price. If this trend continues and Nintendo keeps with the flow of great exclusives, I am afraid Microsoft will end at last this generation.



errorpwns said:

Your logic is so awful "W-well the xbox one would be tied if Japan didn't exist" you act as if the Xbox One has a chance in Japan at competing against thr Wii-U. The Wii-U also has tons of exclusives coming out this year and even more next year.


My logic is that despite the fact that the Wii U has had a years head start, the X1 has already caught up to it sales wise everywhere in the world except japan.

 

Im not saying they can compete in Japan, nowhere in my post did I say that.  My point was that outside of japan the Wii U is being outsold by the X1 every month.  Japan is the only reason why the Wii U is still ahead of the X1 sales wise, but it is not a big enough market to keep it ahead of the X1 for good.

My point was, to everyone that is saying the X1 will never catch the Wii U in sales is that it already has in most teritories outside of Japan despite having a whole years disadvantage, and that is why I think it will pass the Wii U in total sales this year.

 

As far as the whole exclusives thing, I know that the Wii U obviously has more exclusive games this year than just MK8 & SSB, but the fact is that most of thoes other exclusives are not going to sell Wii Us.  Games like Bayonetta 2 & Hyrule Wariours are not what you would call "Main Stream Games" they only appeal to hardcore players, and so they will not sell as many consoles as something like SSB or MK8 which are much more main stream games.

I think that if the Wii U had next year's lineup this year, then X1 would not pass them, but as it is, they just don't have enough meaningfull exclusives to carry sales momentum throughtout the entire year.  

If you look at X1's line up, it does have enough meaningfull exclusives to help pickup sales in the fall.  For example, Fora Horizon is a big raceing game that will interest a lot of the european crowd, and should do well enough in the US.  Then they also have Sunset Overdrive which should really boost the American market as we really tend to like shooters.  And then to top it off you have the Halo MCC which is something every OG Xbox owner will not be able to resist, and should help spike Holiday sales to counter SSB.   Also, the fact that the new SSB is comming to 3DS (a month before Wii U version) will really limit it's potential as a huge unit mover for the Wii U.

On top of that you have to consider that the X1 also has great 3rd party games to fall back on like Cod and Evolve which both have DLC first on Xbox, and FIFFA which has exclusive Xbox content.  Not to mention DAI and Assasin's Creed Unity wich have marketing deals with Xbox that will further help to push more units.

 

Thats my logic in thinking the X1 will outsell Wii U by the end of they year.  If you think it is wrong then so be it, but please don't complain about how "awefull" it is without proof or sound logic to back up why I am wrong.



I own two og Xbox consoles and MCC doesn't interest me in the least. Europe is lost, forget about that. Forget dlc, all the multiplats are better on ps4 and people know this by now. Sunset overdrive is a niche title released in the worst possible date and will get crushed by the major titles in sales, Forza will compare poorly to Driveclub, and there is already a forza game out that didn't help.

And above all. Xb1 did great on launch, that's where virtually all of their sales have been. 2014 has been a relentless disaster for them. The numbers are too vast to catch them this year. WiiU will have a price cut as well, mark my words. You also have a lot of hardcore gamers that already have a ps4, and many of these people will pick up a U this holiday if the price is right. It will be.



CommonNinja said:
errorpwns said:

Your logic is so awful "W-well the xbox one would be tied if Japan didn't exist" you act as if the Xbox One has a chance in Japan at competing against thr Wii-U. The Wii-U also has tons of exclusives coming out this year and even more next year.


My logic is that despite the fact that the Wii U has had a years head start, the X1 has already caught up to it sales wise everywhere in the world except japan.

 

Im not saying they can compete in Japan, nowhere in my post did I say that.  My point was that outside of japan the Wii U is being outsold by the X1 every month.  Japan is the only reason why the Wii U is still ahead of the X1 sales wise, but it is not a big enough market to keep it ahead of the X1 for good.

My point was, to everyone that is saying the X1 will never catch the Wii U in sales is that it already has in most teritories outside of Japan despite having a whole years disadvantage, and that is why I think it will pass the Wii U in total sales this year.

 

As far as the whole exclusives thing, I know that the Wii U obviously has more exclusive games this year than just MK8 & SSB, but the fact is that most of thoes other exclusives are not going to sell Wii Us.  Games like Bayonetta 2 & Hyrule Wariours are not what you would call "Main Stream Games" they only appeal to hardcore players, and so they will not sell as many consoles as something like SSB or MK8 which are much more main stream games.

I think that if the Wii U had next year's lineup this year, then X1 would not pass them, but as it is, they just don't have enough meaningfull exclusives to carry sales momentum throughtout the entire year.  

If you look at X1's line up, it does have enough meaningfull exclusives to help pickup sales in the fall.  For example, Fora Horizon is a big raceing game that will interest a lot of the european crowd, and should do well enough in the US.  Then they also have Sunset Overdrive which should really boost the American market as we really tend to like shooters.  And then to top it off you have the Halo MCC which is something every OG Xbox owner will not be able to resist, and should help spike Holiday sales to counter SSB.   Also, the fact that the new SSB is comming to 3DS (a month before Wii U version) will really limit it's potential as a huge unit mover for the Wii U.

On top of that you have to consider that the X1 also has great 3rd party games to fall back on like Cod and Evolve which both have DLC first on Xbox, and FIFFA which has exclusive Xbox content.  Not to mention DAI and Assasin's Creed Unity wich have marketing deals with Xbox that will further help to push more units.

 

Thats my logic in thinking the X1 will outsell Wii U by the end of they year.  If you think it is wrong then so be it, but please don't complain about how "awefull" it is without proof or sound logic to back up why I am wrong.

so your logic is all of x1 exclusives are system seller while the only one for wiiu is ssb. That is not logic but a biased opinion. I actually see the wiius exclusives to sell more systems, one because they are vastly diferent than theres anything in the market witch is not only shooters acording to MS and second, everithing is going to get buried in the multyplats witch will not happen to wiiu.

Second of all all thouse third party ips will do next to nothing for the x1, cuz all the attetintion will be on ps4.

The x1 will not come close to the wii u this year nor the next. will have to see the 2016 line up to see if it has a chance.



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toastboy44562 said:

I say at least 2 million. Wii U will hit around 9 million by years end. Xbox One should be at 11-13 million.

Unrealistic expectations

This would only happen if Halo Master Chief Collection really is a huge deal and would make a bunch of X360 owners pony up to an XBO instead of sticking it out with X360 (which continues to receive many good games) or convert to PS4 (better future prospects).

The problem the XBO is facing is same as what Nintendo WiiU faced. They lost that launch momentum because they both fumbled the launch, and neither really made the necessary moves fast enough to regain that momentum. Meanwhile, Sony hit it out the park and they continue to benefit from that positive momentum even as many of their "exclusives" delay.



prinz_valium said:
novasonic said:
-3m?.. If it passes Wii U, it won't be until 2016.


so the gap will become bigger with 20 more launch countrys and 3 exclusiv games?

interesting thought...

Is it really that interesting though? 20 countries Microsoft ignored because sales would be negligable, 2nd Forza game in a year, $60 collection of 4 Halo games I could buy used for $40, and Sunset Overdrive. Super Smash Bros. will probably do more for the Wii U than all those things combined for the Xbone. According to VGChartz, the 3rd week of Mario Kart 8 did more for the Wii U than the Kinectless SKU did for Xbone.




8th gen predictions. (made early 2014)
PS4: 60-65m
WiiU: 30-35m
X1: 30-35m
3DS: 80-85m
PSV: 15-20m

Great thread Toast... do you keep a tab of all your crazy predictions to see if one is right so you can tag on your sig?? Because calling yourself the greatest predukter with only one predicition right and 100 of wrong ones make no sense..

I can see a tie or X1 trailing by 500k, and no way any of them will get over 10M this year.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

-1,500,000



novasonic said:
prinz_valium said:
novasonic said:
-3m?.. If it passes Wii U, it won't be until 2016.


so the gap will become bigger with 20 more launch countrys and 3 exclusiv games?

interesting thought...

Is it really that interesting though? 20 countries Microsoft ignored because sales would be negligable, 2nd Forza game in a year, $60 collection of 4 Halo games I could buy used for $40, and Sunset Overdrive. Super Smash Bros. will probably do more for the Wii U than all those things combined for the Xbone. According to VGChartz, the 3rd week of Mario Kart 8 did more for the Wii U than the Kinectless SKU did for Xbone.


hell yes

to make this happen, xbox one need to fail completely in the holiday season.and do as poorly as may.

<500k figures for november and dezember npd. (~50% yoy decrease)