Your logic is so awful "W-well the xbox one would be tied if Japan didn't exist" you act as if the Xbox One has a chance in Japan at competing against thr Wii-U. The Wii-U also has tons of exclusives coming out this year and even more next year.
My logic is that despite the fact that the Wii U has had a years head start, the X1 has already caught up to it sales wise everywhere in the world except japan.
Im not saying they can compete in Japan, nowhere in my post did I say that. My point was that outside of japan the Wii U is being outsold by the X1 every month. Japan is the only reason why the Wii U is still ahead of the X1 sales wise, but it is not a big enough market to keep it ahead of the X1 for good.
My point was, to everyone that is saying the X1 will never catch the Wii U in sales is that it already has in most teritories outside of Japan despite having a whole years disadvantage, and that is why I think it will pass the Wii U in total sales this year.
As far as the whole exclusives thing, I know that the Wii U obviously has more exclusive games this year than just MK8 & SSB, but the fact is that most of thoes other exclusives are not going to sell Wii Us. Games like Bayonetta 2 & Hyrule Wariours are not what you would call "Main Stream Games" they only appeal to hardcore players, and so they will not sell as many consoles as something like SSB or MK8 which are much more main stream games.
I think that if the Wii U had next year's lineup this year, then X1 would not pass them, but as it is, they just don't have enough meaningfull exclusives to carry sales momentum throughtout the entire year.
If you look at X1's line up, it does have enough meaningfull exclusives to help pickup sales in the fall. For example, Fora Horizon is a big raceing game that will interest a lot of the european crowd, and should do well enough in the US. Then they also have Sunset Overdrive which should really boost the American market as we really tend to like shooters. And then to top it off you have the Halo MCC which is something every OG Xbox owner will not be able to resist, and should help spike Holiday sales to counter SSB. Also, the fact that the new SSB is comming to 3DS (a month before Wii U version) will really limit it's potential as a huge unit mover for the Wii U.
On top of that you have to consider that the X1 also has great 3rd party games to fall back on like Cod and Evolve which both have DLC first on Xbox, and FIFFA which has exclusive Xbox content. Not to mention DAI and Assasin's Creed Unity wich have marketing deals with Xbox that will further help to push more units.
Thats my logic in thinking the X1 will outsell Wii U by the end of they year. If you think it is wrong then so be it, but please don't complain about how "awefull" it is without proof or sound logic to back up why I am wrong.