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Forums - Sales Discussion - How well will the first week at $400 predict the future for XB1?

 

Will we know after this week?

Yes 41 17.01%
 
Maybe 20 8.30%
 
Nope 47 19.50%
 
Only for short term 39 16.18%
 
We'll know after MCC 6 2.49%
 
After a few weeks 21 8.71%
 
After the holidays 24 9.96%
 
After Halo 5 28 11.62%
 
Only for NA 15 6.22%
 
Only for EU 0 0%
 
Total:241
dangerguy said:
jnemesh said:
dangerguy said:
Well, considering the last generation lasted at least 8 years and counting, I'll let you know around 2021.

And for the sake of factual historical data, the PS3 struggled for a long time, losing NPD for at least a couple years in row, but actually ended up surpassing the Xbox 360 in overall sales just recently. And like I always say, what the hell did it matter? Gamers had 2 awesome consoles and a lot of awesome games.


Yes, but last generation, the PS3 had the superior hardware (better build quality, blu-ray drive, rechargable batteries built into the controller, etc)...and gameplay was almost identical between the two platforms on multiplatform games.

This time it's different.  We have a console with good performance, and one that can't usually hit 1080p in most games.  You also have SIGNIFICANTLY less exclusives this time around on the Xbox.  Comparing the poor sales of the Xbox One to the initial launch of the PS3 is just plain dumb.  It's a whole new game, and it's Microsoft's game to lose this time.  You can talk about how well it will do 3 or 4 years from now, but if it continues selling at it's current pace, I am not sure that Microsoft's shareholers will be that patient.  I fully expect Xbox to be killed off or sold off if it continues to be outsold 3:1 for the rest of the year!  Understand that Microsoft's Xbox division has NEVER been profitable, EVER!  MS can only keep losing money on a product so long, and the Xbox's time is just about up.  The lackluster sales of the One may just be the final nail in the coffin.

I'm completely LOL'ing at your response. Here is the reality from each company's end of year quarter results:

Microsoft:

Microsoft has just announced record revenue and profits for Q2 2014 (calendar Q4 2013). On the back of strong Xbox One and 360 sales, and good growth by its commercial licensing divisions, Microsoft managed to bring in $24.5 billion in revenue and $8 billion profit.

Sony:

Sony Corporation reported its financial results for the financial year ending 31 March 2014 Wednesday. With a wide range of products and divisions reporting, and the numbers broken out to provide greater transparency, the stand-out number for many will still be the ¥128.4 billion (approximately $1.26 billion) net loss.

And your "nail in the coffin" phrase was exactly what people were saying in 2006/2007 about the PS3. And I don't understand how it's not different. You had a struggling console that after a couple years, finally turned around and has become huge. And the reality, Xbox One is selling perfectly fine, it's just that PS4 is exceeding expectations. This is a major, long term strategy for MS and they clearly have the cash to do it. After an epic 8 year blockbuster like the 360, they're not going to roll over and give up 8 months in or even 1 to 2 years in. This is a 5-7 year run, regardless of the results.  

I didn't "LOL" at your response, but rolled my eyes.  YOU, sir, need to learn how to read an earnings statement, to separate the PR BULLSHIT from the actual FACTS.

Microsoft DID have record earnings, but the Xbox division LOST money.  Go look it up.  Dont just read what you quoted me, but look at the NUMBERS and how they broke down by DIVISION.  Xbox Division has NEVER turned a profit...EVER.  Yes, MS has money to "burn", but shareholders are getting MIGHTY impatient waiting for some sign of profits from a division that has NEVER given them any!  

2nd, go re-read the Sony numbers.  Note that SCE is a separate, PROFITABLE division of Sony Corporation.  Yes, Sony is in trouble because of their failed PC division and failing TV division, but this DOES NOT, IN ANY WAY, affect SCE (the division responsible for Playstation).



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I dont understand how Micro not release a Bundles Bundles por preorder...Is the best option



dyremose said:
I think north america will become even. Maybe up to 5 k weekly in favor of xbox one

Europe will hardly be any different.
1st week spike will not be as massive as some would think. Im predicting a 100k on week 1 and will then fall down to a steady 75k weekly provided no major exclusives is at play


Why would that happen when Gamestop and Amazon show terrible sales for the new $399 SKU? What could possibly change other than a massive price cut to $299? Even at $349 with a free game I think XB1 would at best come within 10-15% of monthly sales in the US, and if they did get that close, Sony would probably move to $349 as well, negating the effect completely.

XB1 has lost the gen, but it will take a while for certain people to 'get' that. Comparisons to PS3 make no sense, as the 'turnaround' was an illusion. Selling more in garbage time doesn't make a comeback. The only reason PS3 looks good by the numbers is because they won Europe/Asia handily. That is literally impossible for XB1, in fact the XB1 is losing outside of the US/UK FAR more than the 360 did. They went from mediocre sales abroad to horrendous, pull-the-plug level of failure.

Even if magically XB1 could come even with the PS4 in the US/UK, they would still lose massively on the global numbers. The fact that they've even managed to lose in the US/UK (yes, even considering the $399 SKU, look at the sales charts of Amazon, Gamestop, and Best Buy if you don't believe me), means they're headed for 30-35M lifetime sales, 40M if they're extremely lucky. And for their ambitions and the way they approach the console business, 30-40M is an absolute disaster. Their economic system of scale doesn't work unless the numbers are 360-like or bigger. The whole idea was to put a microsoft cash printing press into every home, paywalling every entertainment transaction along the way, controlling music, tv, movies, apps, and games, getting a cut of it all. And that has utterly fallen apart, not only are the paywalls rejected and scuttled, but their install base will be less than half of what they expected. Combine that with the ludicrous expenses of R&D and advertising for a flagship console (and the exhorbitant Western corporate salaries for all the stuffed suits), and you have the makings of a true 21st century business disaster of gargantuan proportions.

This is certainly Microsoft's final console, and when the true numbers start to get back to the board and investors, the question then will become how long they put any money at all into the sinking ship. We can start to expect cancelled projects, and one by one distribution to less successful markets will be pulled. Europe 2014 will look like X360 Japan circa 2012. And like dominoes, we will see the same in the US come 2016 or so barring a miracle. Microsoft isn't built for a 2nd/3rd place US market placement. They weren't shooting for a niche. XB OG was to get their foot in the door, X360 was a loss leader to gain the dominant foothold in the US, and XB1 was supposed to be the shining profit machine they had spent a decade+ working towards, only to have it blow up in their face in a legendarily way that's both sad and hilarious.



Arkaign said:
dyremose said:
I think north america will become even. Maybe up to 5 k weekly in favor of xbox one

Europe will hardly be any different.
1st week spike will not be as massive as some would think. Im predicting a 100k on week 1 and will then fall down to a steady 75k weekly provided no major exclusives is at play


Why would that happen when Gamestop and Amazon show terrible sales for the new $399 SKU? What could possibly change other than a massive price cut to $299? Even at $349 with a free game I think XB1 would at best come within 10-15% of monthly sales in the US, and if they did get that close, Sony would probably move to $349 as well, negating the effect completely.

XB1 has lost the gen, but it will take a while for certain people to 'get' that. Comparisons to PS3 make no sense, as the 'turnaround' was an illusion. Selling more in garbage time doesn't make a comeback. The only reason PS3 looks good by the numbers is because they won Europe/Asia handily. That is literally impossible for XB1, in fact the XB1 is losing outside of the US/UK FAR more than the 360 did. They went from mediocre sales abroad to horrendous, pull-the-plug level of failure.

Even if magically XB1 could come even with the PS4 in the US/UK, they would still lose massively on the global numbers. The fact that they've even managed to lose in the US/UK (yes, even considering the $399 SKU, look at the sales charts of Amazon, Gamestop, and Best Buy if you don't believe me), means they're headed for 30-35M lifetime sales, 40M if they're extremely lucky. And for their ambitions and the way they approach the console business, 30-40M is an absolute disaster. Their economic system of scale doesn't work unless the numbers are 360-like or bigger. The whole idea was to put a microsoft cash printing press into every home, paywalling every entertainment transaction along the way, controlling music, tv, movies, apps, and games, getting a cut of it all. And that has utterly fallen apart, not only are the paywalls rejected and scuttled, but their install base will be less than half of what they expected. Combine that with the ludicrous expenses of R&D and advertising for a flagship console (and the exhorbitant Western corporate salaries for all the stuffed suits), and you have the makings of a true 21st century business disaster of gargantuan proportions.

This is certainly Microsoft's final console, and when the true numbers start to get back to the board and investors, the question then will become how long they put any money at all into the sinking ship. We can start to expect cancelled projects, and one by one distribution to less successful markets will be pulled. Europe 2014 will look like X360 Japan circa 2012. And like dominoes, we will see the same in the US come 2016 or so barring a miracle. Microsoft isn't built for a 2nd/3rd place US market placement. They weren't shooting for a niche. XB OG was to get their foot in the door, X360 was a loss leader to gain the dominant foothold in the US, and XB1 was supposed to be the shining profit machine they had spent a decade+ working towards, only to have it blow up in their face in a legendarily way that's both sad and hilarious.


Extremely accurate assesment of what is going on.  Especially the part about the roles the OG Xbox and the 360 played, and how the One was supposed to "own" the living room!  MS overreached, BADLY, and now they will pay the price.  What most fans don't realize, and can't accept, is that Ballmer's and Mattrick's plan was YEARS in the making, and just because Phil Spencer walks on a stage and declares that games are going to be the focus GOING FORWARD, it doesn't help the fact that MS WASTED the past few years focusing on multimedia!  Exclusive "AAA" games aren't made in a few months, they take YEARS...so even if they "changed course" right when Spencer took the helm, it will be LATE 2016 at the EARLIEST before we see any results...and late 2016 is too far away to matter.  Look at the games available RIGHT NOW on Xbox One and PS4...Xbox one has 43 games available to play RIGHT NOW, 9 of which are exclusive....Sony has almost DOUBLE that, 81 available to play, RIGHT NOW, with 10 of them being exclusive.  You don't "catch up" (or even COMPETE!) with HALF the number of games on your system!

Yes, the Xbox is done...the only question is how long Microsoft will beat this particular dead horse...they have shown a very un-businesslike tendency to flog substandard products LONG after the market has decided that they don't want their stuff...see also Zune, Windows 8, Windows Phone, and Surface!



dangerguy said:
jnemesh said:
dangerguy said:
Well, considering the last generation lasted at least 8 years and counting, I'll let you know around 2021.

And for the sake of factual historical data, the PS3 struggled for a long time, losing NPD for at least a couple years in row, but actually ended up surpassing the Xbox 360 in overall sales just recently. And like I always say, what the hell did it matter? Gamers had 2 awesome consoles and a lot of awesome games.


Yes, but last generation, the PS3 had the superior hardware (better build quality, blu-ray drive, rechargable batteries built into the controller, etc)...and gameplay was almost identical between the two platforms on multiplatform games.

This time it's different.  We have a console with good performance, and one that can't usually hit 1080p in most games.  You also have SIGNIFICANTLY less exclusives this time around on the Xbox.  Comparing the poor sales of the Xbox One to the initial launch of the PS3 is just plain dumb.  It's a whole new game, and it's Microsoft's game to lose this time.  You can talk about how well it will do 3 or 4 years from now, but if it continues selling at it's current pace, I am not sure that Microsoft's shareholers will be that patient.  I fully expect Xbox to be killed off or sold off if it continues to be outsold 3:1 for the rest of the year!  Understand that Microsoft's Xbox division has NEVER been profitable, EVER!  MS can only keep losing money on a product so long, and the Xbox's time is just about up.  The lackluster sales of the One may just be the final nail in the coffin.

I'm completely LOL'ing at your response. Here is the reality from each company's end of year quarter results:

Microsoft:

Microsoft has just announced record revenue and profits for Q2 2014 (calendar Q4 2013). On the back of strong Xbox One and 360 sales, and good growth by its commercial licensing divisions, Microsoft managed to bring in $24.5 billion in revenue and $8 billion profit.

Sony:

Sony Corporation reported its financial results for the financial year ending 31 March 2014 Wednesday. With a wide range of products and divisions reporting, and the numbers broken out to provide greater transparency, the stand-out number for many will still be the ¥128.4 billion (approximately $1.26 billion) net loss.

And your "nail in the coffin" phrase was exactly what people were saying in 2006/2007 about the PS3. And I don't understand how it's not different. You had a struggling console that after a couple years, finally turned around and has become huge. And the reality, Xbox One is selling perfectly fine, it's just that PS4 is exceeding expectations. This is a major, long term strategy for MS and they clearly have the cash to do it. After an epic 8 year blockbuster like the 360, they're not going to roll over and give up 8 months in or even 1 to 2 years in. This is a 5-7 year run, regardless of the results.  

Have to admit i lolled hard at this too!  One would have to have been living in a cave to not realise that the xbox has been more profitable in the last 5 years or so.  At a corporate level, its not even a question as to who will be around in 10 years or so..Liquidation is a real possibility for Sony.  Regarding the One strategy new CEO Satya Nadella has only recently strongly confirmed his commitment to the XBox One.  Think about it.  The console is way, way to integrated into the Windows eco system for Microsoft to even ever dream of offloading it or disbanding it.  Yes the PS4 at this pace looks to stay in the lead and remain highly competitive but only if the parent company can survive its very serious financial woes. Long story short XBOX one is going nowhere in a hurry - Microsoft are stuck with it, however well it does.  To say otherwise is fanboyish fantasy stuff.  Wii U on the other hand is almost guaranteed 3rd place and will really need to start looking at becoming viable, otherwise it will face oblivion.  



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

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jnemesh said:
Nope, even at $399 it's still less powerful than the competition at the SAME PRICE! It still has less games to play on it...and will CONTINUE to have less games for it. It will NOT stream to a 2nd TV (or 3rd, 4th or 5th) or let you play away from home with a portable unit. It will NOT support VR in a year or two, either. Why would someone buy an Xbox? Halo. That's about it. And Halo isn't going to swing enough customers over to the Xbox camp to matter. This console is DONE...stick a fork in it already.


what?

xbox one has some much more games this year than ps4



Arkaign said:

This is certainly Microsoft's final console, and when the true numbers start to get back to the board and investors, the question then will become how long they put any money at all into the sinking ship. We can start to expect cancelled projects, and one by one distribution to less successful markets will be pulled. Europe 2014 will look like X360 Japan circa 2012. And like dominoes, we will see the same in the US come 2016 or so barring a miracle. Microsoft isn't built for a 2nd/3rd place US market placement. They weren't shooting for a niche. XB OG was to get their foot in the door, X360 was a loss leader to gain the dominant foothold in the US, and XB1 was supposed to be the shining profit machine they had spent a decade+ working towards, only to have it blow up in their face in a legendarily way that's both sad and hilarious.

A few things here..  Did Sony give up when the PS3 was selling almost 50% less then the PS2 did? The PS3 will end up being around 40% below the PS2 sales at the end. For the past few years they knew it was NOT going to sell anywhere NEAR PS2 levels, but they did not give up. Even with the debacle that was the PS3 launch. (pricing and availability issues, and touting that the CELL processor was amazing but not showing it in games). The only reason the PS3 sold hardly at ALL in its first few years was because it was good way of getting a BLU-RAY player, if not for that we might have only saw 50 million sales of the PS3.

Unlike past consoles.. both the PS4 and XBox One started selling at break even points, even making a few bucks in some cases. Going with the PC architecture allowed this. Same reason the redeisgns in a year or 2 will be DIRT CHEAP to make. This console generation will profit MUCH quicker then last one. And Since the X1 launched without being a money loser it is in an even better position.

As of the end of May the X1 was STILL ahead of X360 sales. This with only being sold in 13 markets and starting off WAY MORE expensive then the X360 did. Also The X360 ZERO next gen compitition. The PS3 and Wii came out a year later. The X1 had 2 NEXT GEN consoles to be up against and STILL outsold the X360.

X360 has NOT been a loss leader the past 4 or so years. Microsoft has a TON of money in the bank and is a highly profitable company. SONY is the one who is on the brink of colapse with the PS4 and Insurance being its only bright spots right now.

This console generation on the whole will likely sell less then the last. I don't think ANY console will hit 100 million. Something that at least 1 console has done the last 2 generations. But Microsoft isn't going anywhere. The X2 will simply be an upgraded version of the X1 with faster CPU, beefier GPU, and 16GB or more of DDR5(6) RAM. Older games will play on it..and may run even better. It will almost be a PC like system.   New games could have 2 levels.  X1 and X2 .. X2 will be 4k and 60-120FPS ..... X1 will be 1080p/60FPS.. Better detail on the X2 versions. So peopel WONT need to have an X2, but if they want the latest and greatest graphics they will upgraded. X2 will debut at $299 and the X1 will be $199 at that time.  So there.. lol   The PS5 will be the same way.



XBLive: cpg716     PSN ID: cpg716  Steam: Luv4Tech77

Predictions on 12/01/15 - Generation 8 Totals:

PS4: 85-95m
X1: 55-65m
WiiU: 20-30m

prinz_valium said:
jnemesh said:
Nope, even at $399 it's still less powerful than the competition at the SAME PRICE! It still has less games to play on it...and will CONTINUE to have less games for it. It will NOT stream to a 2nd TV (or 3rd, 4th or 5th) or let you play away from home with a portable unit. It will NOT support VR in a year or two, either. Why would someone buy an Xbox? Halo. That's about it. And Halo isn't going to swing enough customers over to the Xbox camp to matter. This console is DONE...stick a fork in it already.


what?

xbox one has some much more games this year than ps4

Like what?



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

It'll take a while to know. When the PS3 released, for a while it was short on games and high on price... when it came down it didn't IMMEDIATELY take off. But it started building momentum, which it kept up after the 360 started to fall off. A price cut like this is a  chance for the X1 to start building momentum... I mean, could it take off and do great from here on? Sure. But a slow burn is more likely... we'll know more after the holidays, when consumers are likely to be paying more attention to the price. 



krippaz said:
Well maybe xbox will rise in US , but if you look at statistic ps4 have the advantage now.

You can hope that xbox will sell more but we all know it havent sold well and probably never will.
Still if they give them away for free they will sell.


Well, technically it's sold pretty darn well... just the PS4 has been amazing. It's sales are only poor from a relative viewpoint - it's still doing better than the PS3 was at this stage of its life. Does anyone think the PS3 didn't sell well?