i think gears 2 will sell more, but i think it will be close

Soriku said: Kayanator said: MGS1 = 6 million MGS2 -7 million   do the math. MGS3 was released at a bad time.     Or...the series is just in decline sales-wise >_> It's just like FF. From 7 up it kept going down (although FF VIII beat out FF IX sales). The PS2 FFs went from 7 mil (FF X) to 5 mil (FF XII)

  

 

Gears 2 (except if MGS goes multi format).

Quality beside, MGS4 will

1- be released on a console with a smaller install base than Gears 2.
2- probably be released around the same time that GTA IV, which can't be good, no matter which game we're talking about.
3- won't be released at Xmas (which will be Gears 2's case)
4- have a gameplay that is less accessible than Gears.
5- won't have a bigger advertising campaign than Gears 2 (cause Konami's pockets are not even close from MS ones)

Uh.. MGS4's budget is 70 million, the highest ever for a game. They have money.

GeoW will win, the first game sold 5 million of which most will buy the 2nd and new buyers will but GeoW2. Plus the 360 install base is bigger.

Lol, i'm not sure they get that budget (KZ2 one is huge and it's around 35 millions), but I'm talking about advertising.

And you're making a few mistakes about MGS2/MGS3.
MGS2 was released 12 (occident) to 18 (japan) months after PS2 launch, and in the US, 2 weeks before GTA III (talking about competition).

MGS3 was of course hyper hyped, as any sequel to a 7 millions units title would be, and It wasen't of course released "quietly". The coverage closely rivaled MGS2 one.

I'll add that, in both case, MGS was released at the best period (Xmas) and the PS2 install based was way bigger that PS3 is/will be by MGS4 release.

I don't think MG4 launch conditions are that good.

Exactly. This is the pattern that series games always follow over the course of a console generation. The first one is revolutionary, a showpiece for the system, it gets hyped to no end and sells huge. The later ones just tweak the formula a bit, and while they may be superior, they very rarely match the sales of the first. When a next-gen version comes along, sales shoot up again and the cycle repeats. The "decline" in FF Soriku cites is actually another perfect example of this.

MGS4 will sell more than MGS3. Probably a lot more, unless it's really bad. It might even end up being the best seller in the series -- it's certainly the most hyped, and it's by far the most important PS3 game on the horizon.

Also, a lot of people are mentioning install bases and attach rates, but if there's one thing that sales history has shown, it's that these mean almost nothing. The games mentioned above are a great example: sales stayed level or even declined as the install base grew. And there's never been a major difference between games sold at different points in a system's life: a game launched when a system has a 100m install base certainly doesn't sell 100 times more than one launched when it had a 1m install base. There's almost no correlation at all on a system with a growing userbase.

Not that I'm saying any of this means MGS4 will outsell GeoW2. I don't think it's at all obvious which is going to sell more, and I wouldn't want to try to call it. The only bet I'd be willing to take is that MGS4 will do better than MGS3.

Moneybags said: @friedtofu Mgs4 has more worldwide appeal. Plus that 7 million gap is closing day by day and will probably be gone in couple years.

 While the gap may be gone on a couple of years, MGS4 is launching this year so your comment is irrelevant.  AS for me, I've never played a MGS so I'll be going Gears exclusive.

Gears 2, i think microsoft will advertise this game so much just like they did with halo 3

I don't know but I do not think Gears2 will do very good. The first had the advantage of being the first really really good-looking next-gen console game. The rest of the game was pretty average but the graphics were beyond awesome. 2008 will be different. Games like Call of Duty4 have raised the bar a lot and what remains is a pretty depressing FPS with a mediocre story and good but not anymore exceptional graphics. It will do good of course but I doubt that it will top Gears1.