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Forums - Gaming Discussion - crazy prediction: PS4 will outsell PS2 lifetime

Metallox on 08 June 2014

No. According to VGChartz the Wii has already topped the PS4.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

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drake_tolu on 08 June 2014
Metallox said:
No. According to VGChartz the Wii has already topped the PS4.


And the PS4 will surpass the 2018 ...



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 08 June 2014
Gammalad said:
http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=7358258

http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=7358292



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

drake_tolu on 08 June 2014
BraLoD said:
drake_tolu said:
BraLoD said:
Just if this gen takes like 10 years, and that's not likely either, but it will sell well over 100M.


But if PS4 sold:

2014: 12,000,000 (16,000,000)

2015: 15,000,000 (31,000,000)

2016: 18,000,000 (49,000,000)

2017: 22,000,000 (71,000,000)

2018: 21,000,000 (92,000,000)

2019: 17,000,000 (109,000,000)

2020: 13,000,000 (122,000,000)

November 2020: PS5 resaled

2021-2025: 48,000,000 (170,000,000)

We will succeed!

PS2 have sold 50,000,000 after PS3 resaled.

So, PS2 have sold 107,000,000 in 2007 VS 122,000,000 in 2020 of PS4!

And lifetime: 160,000,000 PS2 VS 170,000,000 of PS4!


I doubt PS4 can sell 170M, are you serious thinking it can mantain a rate of almost 10M after 2020 every year?
Just look to how much the PS3 is selling right now in the first year after the PS4 and you tell me if you really believe it can do 48M in 5 years after a supposed PS5 launch (that probably will come even before 2020).

"are you serious thinking it can mantain a rate of almost 10M after 2020 every year?"

Yes.

PS2 has succeeded(50,000,000 after PS3)

Can do it even PS4.



Legendary_W on 08 June 2014

Piracy was a major factor in PS2 and Wii success. PS4 can't be pirated, so it's not going to appeal to the mass audience that requires piracy to stay in gaming (Some people geniunely can't buy games, others can afford them but think it's a waste of money), so those people will stick with PC where they can always find a way to play a game illegaly, usually even with DRM involved.

In short, PS4 will have a heatlhy life but I believe it's highly unlikely to achieve PS2 sales unless there's a significant change in the market for some society-changing reason... ...Though miracles can happen.



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CDiablo on 08 June 2014

I dont think so the hardware is too weak to keep a 7ish year gen. This hardware will get tapped quicker due to the familiar architecture. I expect PS5&X2/720/XBtwo within 5 years. Hows that for a bold prediction



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Chasesdaddy84 on 08 June 2014
vivster said:
PS2 and Wii achieved their crazy sales with casuals. All casuals are dead now.


So if the PS4 is outselling both of them (at the same time in their life cycle) without the help of casuals... isn't that even more impressive? They are doing it purely based on gaming and what is to come. I think people are having flashbacks of the PS2 era.. even the consoles are similar (ish) looking. The PS4 is getting all of the exclusive content, commercials, and so on... Multiplats are by far better on the PS4 and everyone knows it and no one denies it.. I agree with your comment totally. The ps2 partially due to DVD player, cheap price tag, and awesome games combined for a lot of sales... the Wii, well we all know that story (and it's tragic end).. but the PS4 is doing even better without the casuals... and lets be honest, it doesn't have many must have games right now.. but I think people realize it will have the best library in the long run, it will always have the best versions of multiplats, and Sony has shown to support a console for 10+ years. I think people are over complicating why the PS4 is dominating. It's really not all that complicated. 



Gammalad on 08 June 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Gammalad said:
http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=7358258

http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=7358292


http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=7358306



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.

Nicklesbe on 08 June 2014
Legendary_W said:
Piracy was a major factor in PS2 and Wii success. PS4 can't be pirated, so it's not going to appeal to the mass audience that requires piracy to stay in gaming (Some people geniunely can't buy games, others can afford them but think it's a waste of money), so those people will stick with PC where they can always find a way to play a game illegaly, usually even with DRM involved.

In short, PS4 will have a heatlhy life but I believe it's highly unlikely to achieve PS2 sales unless there's a significant change in the market for some society-changing reason... ...Though miracles can happen.

Piracy is just as easy on Wii U as it was on Wii, and it hasn't boosted the Wii U's sales. Ps3 and 360 were also easily piratable, more so in fact and it didn't push either of those higher than 100m. Ps4 and Xb1 are just as easy if not easier to hack than ps3 and 360 were which were considerably easier to hack than Wii and ps2. So it's a nice try but it's ultimately a fallacy and doesn't hold up to reality.



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drake_tolu on 08 June 2014
BraLoD said:
drake_tolu said:

"are you serious thinking it can mantain a rate of almost 10M after 2020 every year?"

Yes.

PS2 has succeeded(50,000,000 after PS3)

Can do it even PS4.


PS3 launch was very twisted and it's first years too, so people still bought the PS2 greatly, + the piracy that was very easy achived with it, so you basically just had to buy the console and don't worry with the money to spend with the games, that was a great system seller, + the casuals that now are at smartphones/mobiles/handhelds.
PS5 probably will be a even better console than PS4 as they still have the PS3 launch fresh in mind and the successful PS4 launch to get the directions, so when the PS5 releases, almost all support will go to it in like 1 or 2 years at max and PS4 will stop selling, so if the PS5 launchs around 2018 (5 years lifespawn, totally possible as Microsoft will try a new console probably in that time to counter the PS4 huge success, so Sony might too) then after 2020 the PS4 will probably won't sell anymore (significantly).
120M seems a better estimate, 170M is just pure crazy, can happen, but I doubt it, if it does achive it almost everyone will be surprised.


I rather think that PS4 will wait to launch PS5.

For me XO resaled in November 2019, and of first week of 2020 they sold less of PS4, and even of DS Fusions, so, Sony wait for X2 being to sell good for launced PS5.