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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter: Xbox ONE should have the advantage over the long term.

So PS4 will have the advantage. Good



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

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Yeah well watch dogs has made as system seller to the PS4 and it's a third party game, making the ps4 to sell 200k+ units last week (many in USA).

Meanwhile the Xbox One has sold only 52k with watch dogs and having a few more triple A exclusives than the ps4, imagine what will happen when big exclusives and big games like FF XV, KH3 or MGS V that have been always more loved by ps comunity than Xbox comunity and will have better resolution (for people who doesn't really care wich console pick sometimes hardware makes the difference) due to Ps4 being more powerful what will happen with ps4's sales.

Nothing stop this train.



kowenicki said:

He is talking about the US of course.

I saw the other thread ( http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=184551&page=1# ) where a crappy website had stolen one part of a bloomberg article to sensationalise the $1bn revenue thing.  So here is the full article for clarification for you.

The $1bn thing is REVENUE over the lifetime of the console by the way, for perspective MS makes $1bn in PROFITS evert 2 to 3 weeks.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-06/xbox-looks-for-do-over-with-gamers-as-sales-trail-sony-s.html

 

Xbox Looks for Do-Over With Gamers as Sales Trail Sony’s


By Dina Bass and Cliff Edwards   Jun 7, 2014 5:00 AM GMT+0100

For Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), this year’s Electronic Entertainment Expo, the video-game industry’s annual conference, looks like a do-over.

Missteps over the past 12 months, from pricing the new Xbox One $100 above Sony Corp. (SNE)’s PlayStation 4 to a rollout that gamers said slighted them, let the $399 PS4 grab the early lead. With Microsoft and its game unit under new leaders, the Redmond, Washington-based company is pivoting back to attract loyal players with fresh titles and a lower-priced model that goes on sale June 9, the day the company makes its E3 presentation in Los Angeles.

“There’s absolutely a renewed focus on the gamer and our fans for Xbox that have prioritized gaming,” Yusuf Mehdi, vice president for Xbox marketing and strategy, said in an interview. “We are very much coming to this E3 with a great story to share and tell.”

In addition to selling at least 2 million fewer players than Sony, Microsoft has lost $1 billion in future sales, based on how much gamers spend over the life of a console, according to Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who predicts the company will bounce back. Further market-share losses would give Sony greater influence with the companies that create the most-popular games and applications.

That isn’t happening yet.

For this holiday season, there are no huge exclusives for either Microsoft or Tokyo-based Sony. Both companies will be relying heavily on titles available for both consoles, with each having secured some unique content.

Sunset Overdrive

For Xbox One, that game is Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI)’s Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, which goes on sale Nov. 4. Microsoft gets first access to downloadable content and map packs. Sony, meanwhile, will get exclusive playable content for the game Destiny, the first new franchise from Bungie Inc., the studio that made the top-selling Halo games for Xbox.

Microsoft, which plans a media briefing at 9 a.m. local time, also will have Sunset Overdrive only on Xbox for the holidays. A shooting game with wacky weapons like an exploding teddy bear, it’s from the studio that used to make Ratchet & Clank, only for PlayStation.

Sony’s E3 press conference that afternoon will focus on some of the company’s core games, including the Gran Turismo racing title, and new products such as the action-adventure knights tale The Order: 1886. 

To differentiate itself from Microsoft, Sony also will probably offer new demonstrations of Project Morpheus, a virtual reality headset unveiled in March to compete with Oculus VR’s Rift, and its PlayStation Now game-download service.

All-in-One

Microsoft, which outsold Sony in the U.S. with the previous generation of consoles, has tried to market Xbox One as a premium, all-in-one entertainment product, a strategy that hasn’t delivered industry leading sales so far.

“The bet that the broader entertainment consumer would buy the console this early in the cycle hasn’t panned out,” said Brian Blau, an analyst at Gartner Inc. The serious gamer is “the person who is going to buy the console today.”

The focus on TV, music and movies put off some gamers who fretted they were no longer the priority. The company tried to impose curbs on trading games and set requirements that the device be connected to the Internet once a day, two demands that were rescinded before the machine’s debut.

Microsoft also never succeeded in convincing gamers that the Kinect motion sensor justified the $499 price relative to Sony’s (6758) PlayStation 4. Even a complete exclusive, a rarity these days, on the hottest game of the spring, Titanfall, couldn’t vault Xbox One above PlayStation 4 in sales.

Not Kinecting

Finally, with shoppers worldwide snapping up more than 7 million PlayStation 4 consoles and Microsoft shipping 5 million Xbox Ones into stores, including some still unsold, the company announced last month it would sell a Kinect-less version of Xbox One matching Sony’s $399 price.

With the price cut, Xbox One finally can go head to head with PlayStation 4, according to Pachter, who projects the Kinect-free version will account for 90 percent of Xbox sales.

With neither console likely to offer a blockbuster exclusive this Christmas -- Microsoft’s next Halo doesn’t come out until 2015 -- Xbox executives will have to find a way to differentiate their product from Sony’s.

One month after taking over in February as Microsoft’s new chief executive officer, Satya Nadella named long-time games executive Phil Spencer to head Xbox, a signal that core players are back in the spotlight for the division.

Long Road

With a renewed focus on gamers, Mehdi sees an opportunity to close the gap with Sony, especially with the new console generation not even a year old.

The Xbox One, while trailing Sony’s player, is still outselling its predecessor, the Xbox 360, at this stage, and that’s despite the fact it’s available in fewer countries.

“What we’ve seen in the past is that early in the generation most of the people that buy consoles early end up buying both,” Mehdi said. Sales for the two companies so far represent “probably 5 percent of the total number of units that wind up getting sold.”

Now that the prices are the same, Xbox’s advantage among gamers who want to engage in multiplayer contests should help, according to Pachter.

“The software lineup is pretty consistent across both platforms,” said Pachter. “Once price is neutralized, people will choose based on what their friends have, because they want to play online multiplayer and the multiplayer community is bigger on Xbox. So Microsoft should have an advantage over the long term.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Dina Bass in Seattle at dbass2@bloomberg.net; Cliff Edwards in San Francisco at cedwards28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Anthony Palazzo at apalazzo@bloomberg.net; Pui-Wing Tam at ptam13@bloomberg.net Rob Golum


If that's not proof enough that "analyst" is not a real profession, I can't help you.



Are we just waiting for how long Patcher will take to be proven wrong as he always is when predicting sales? He can get numbers more wrong than VGC in the previous month, and that is a lot.

And if consoles have sold just 5% of what they will this gen, so PS4 @8M+ will end up selling 160M as we predicted? Great to know.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Maybe but people just end up buying the same console as what their friends get and people right now are getting the ps4.

Also you shouldn't cover up one division's losses with profits from the other divisions. The Xbox division still lost them money.



    

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Did we start beliving Pachter now that he's preaching something we like?



efilysp said:


If that's not proof enough that "analyst" is not a real profession, I can't help you.

"Analyst"(s), in al fairness is a real profession. When they are actually doing what they are supposed to be doing. Which is analysing data. The problem is that every single analyst so far seems to have no clue how the gaming industry works, or better yet how the game consumer thinks. And this use some very very very very very strange completely stupid things to explain why they think the numbers will move in one direction as opposed to the other. they are just not in tune with the consumers. Here are some notable examples. All said by "analyst" as to why XBO will beat PS4 before both were released.

  • XBO has skype, being able to make calls from your Tv is something that will gamers will be really interested in
  • Kinect is a killer app, it will completely revelutionize how gamers interact with their console. Being ablet to turn your console on with your voice will be a game changer.
  • Looking from sales of the original kinect, MS can gaurantee sales of at least 10M from kinect fans alone. That wil give them an edge over sony since sony chose not to bundle a camera with the system.
  • XBO has an edge over the PS4 because it has a better online service than sony (obviously these guys don't know anything about PS+)


Burek said:
Well, XOne should have already had the advantage? Every couple of months there is a new advantage:
- NFL and TV will give it advantage --- ok, if not then...
- Kinect will give it advantage --- ok, maybe not, but wait for...
- Titanfall, that will give it advantage --- oh, well...
- No Kinect, now that will give it advantage --- pretty soon...
- Just wait for Sunset Overdrive
- Just wait for Halo remasters
- Just wait for the holidays
- Just wait for Halo 5

It seems to me that the only advantage XOne has is the endless wait for the sales to pick up. Long term, there's bound to be something that will in the end prove to be an advantage... If there is anyone left still waiting for it...


Time to bring out the chalkboard.



Somehow I think people will take this Pachter nonsense a little less seriously than they took the "MS to lose a billion!!1" nonsense from that other thread.



I think Pacter is definitely underestimating the cost of their mistakes. He's right that people who will buy current gen consoles will go with what their friends have, but more people are buying the ps4 right now, so going by his logic, more people will continue to buy the ps4 cause that's what their friends have not X1. 

And Yusuf said that most end up buying both consoles but its really only the core gamers that do that and they represent a small part of the overall market.



    

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