You werent stupid, MIcrosoft IS for making so many mistakes.

There's a strong chance that won't happen.

It would have a chance if it weren't for several things :

(1)- Microsoft burned many of the people who took the plunge and bought the 360. Hence, hard to get someone that felt they wasted their money last time to pony up for a second round of pain.

(2)- The country has gone mobile-bananas. I can't state this enough. The most popular home console, the Wii U, gets pummeled by the freaking VITA. I'm dead serious, usually about twice as many Vitas are sold by the week than the TOP console in Japan. And the 3DS? It doubles to triples the Vita. The top 100 software slots are always chock full of mobile titles, with a peppering of a few PS3 and WiiU titles, but even the top top TOP home console titles are peanuts compared to even 2nd-tier handheld games now. So : home consoles are virtually dead in Japan, with only the U having something resembling a pulse, but it's still faint and weak.

(3)- Connected to that point is the Japanese sensibility and lifestyle. They are busier than Westerners in their schedules, and spend less time at home relaxing. Their living spaces are indisputably less voluminous on average. Every square inch counts, and the X1 presents itself as two or even three things depending on model. At minimum you have a large chunky box for the console itself, and then a big honking power brick to go with it. If they get the Kinect model, now they have to figure out a place to put another big chunk of plastic (it's a shame they still don't have extension cables, a wireless option, and decent mounting equipment for them either). But yeah, the X1 is even less appealing to the Japanese consumer than the 360 and OG Xbox were due to this. AND YOU CAN'T PUT IT UPRIGHT. I honestly can't even. I just. Why MS, why?

(4)- Attractive Japanese software. That is going to be next to impossible to pull off. Mainly it's a rock and hard place situation. If they moneyhat some major IP, it will anger a lot of gamers who don't own/want an X1. If they don't, then they will suffer in trying to get decent software even ported to the thing (given the abysmal sales expectations). At best, most of their lineup will consist of things also coming to the PS4 and/or WiiU.

In the end, a moderate foreign population that resides in Japan may end up purchasing them, and a few rebellious-minded Japanese. But I don't expect it to even meet the expenses involved in localization, maintaining offices/support/distribution, paying for IPs, having the legal and operational staff necessary, etc. An X1 costs nearly what it sells for to make. That means that in terms of making a profit from them enough to cover the mfg costs AND operational costs, they have to sell a pretty fair number of them AND sell a lot of games and XBLG subs. I just don't see it.

TL:DR : It will fail. Hard. But don't feel bad XB fans, PS4 is never going to light the country on fire either. At best PS4 can hope to have 'moderate' success there. The ship has sailed, it's a mobile-centric market now, and one that has alarmingly become the most aged developed nation in modern history. We're probably in for a massive retraction in gaming sales in Japan over the next 5-20 years as many simply stop playing when they get older.

By not having a TGS keynote in the first year you're releasing is not a good sign.

sure, they can do much better, maybe even make 2x-3x more sales than X360, they can go from 300 for week to something like 600, maybe even 900 for week!

Ouch lol.

I expect an okay first week honestly. There are a fair number of westerners in Japan, and another fair number of wealthy people who might buy it for the lulz.

But yeah, I don't think it will sustain past launch at all, and will be stunningly bad in short order. Unless they keep selling it due to pride, it probably won't last two years, maybe even one. The market for home consoles is easily half the size it was just 5 years ago, or maybe even less.

I can't say it enough : mobile is now indisputably and irrevocably king of Japan. Consoles are dying YoY, and I don't expect ANY Gen9 consoles to survive there at all. They will have to be hybrids where you have a handheld that you can also play hooked up to a TV when you want. But the days of a home console selling well in Japan are gone forever.

Since the 360 launched in Japan did it sell even a million ?? Xbone should be able to sell better.i think its size will hurt it

It's OK! Everyone was a bit stupid at some point!

only if the can manage Kinect interactive hentai games

sill doubt.
but who care, if they sell 2m or just 1.5m?

Xbox One is going to flop hard in Japan no matter what they do. I wish Microsoft would abandon Japan altogether, honestly.