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Locked: Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

TheDrill said:
riecsou said:
TheDrill said:
riecsou said:

Hey I am still waiting for a reply from you. 

With a 27% boost for Xbox One thanks to Watch Dogs in the US on May 31st we have the numbers at 31 k also represents the highest Xbox One has sold during May.

The smallest PS4 sold in the same month is 50K. So adding 15K to the highest number of Xbox One in may that is 46K.

Since you have a master in computer science I think it is fair to say that 50K>46K

Now if by 15k increase you meant outselling the PS4 in the US by 15k , then that will put the number of the Xbox One around 65K. To reach that number Xbox One would need a 100% boost.The second week of Titanfall with bundle available + price cut + free Titanfall, Xbox One only manage to sell 60k. On the third week of Titanfall with still price cut+free Titnfall, Xbox One manage to sell 45k...

So please enlight me with your master in computer science 

Also can you check if the percentage of gap is still 13%?? I am guessing that is an easy calculation for you. 

 

marketshare wise in the US X1 is 45 % while PS4 is 55 % (between PS4 and X1 only, not including Wii U)

This is still extremely close and the price cut will definitely recover X1 sales in the USA.

So are you saying that 55% of 6.3 Millions is close to 45% of 6.3 Millions?

And it needs 15k more weekly to reaches it soon? Now I wonder what percentage 15k represent out of 6.3 Millions. Using simple math logic 15K only represent 0.2% of 6.3 Millions. You are the one with the master degree, maybe you can make more sense out of those numbers.

And what happened to the easy calculation of the gap percentage?? That should be easy for you to compute !!

If you are having trouble getting the gap percentage, I will post it later for you


When I have originally made my prediction it was the case, I will adjust it further after the first 2 or 3 weeks of seeing X1 numbers after the price cut.

55 % is by far no domination from PS4, and is easily reversable especially this early in the generation.

Can I ask you: What are Sony going to show at E3? What games are Sony going to release this year? Lots of people are far more capable of explaining to you how percentages work, but from where I'm sitting you seem to be assuming the XB1 is going to be the only platform with American centric games coming out this year. I find that odd because the PS4 is beating the XB1 in America every week ... without American centric games? What's going to change? Halo? Is that what you are counting on entirely?

The gap will be over 1 million by the end of this year in America.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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I didn't imply that it wasn't or that Microsoft would be able to bounce back ahead of Sony.



gcah2006 said:
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.


It's not the difference between PS4 sold and X1 sold that matters, but the marketshare.



TheDrill said:
gcah2006 said:
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.


It's not the difference between PS4 sold and X1 sold that matters, but the marketshare.

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. This evidence is further reinforced by the survey that I mentioned earlier.



Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
gcah2006 said:
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.


It's not the difference between PS4 sold and X1 sold that matters, but the marketshare.

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. 

I understand all that, the point is it's only the beginning of the generation and currently the gap is not that great, if X1 sells good during holidays alone it can shrink that gap by 50 %.

Furthermore even with a 10 million gap at 45 million it still represens a considerable chunk, assuming 55 million for PS4, it's 45 %, almost half, so it's not that bad.



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TheDrill said:
Aura7541 said:

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. 

I understand all that, the point is it's only the beginning of the generation and currently the gap is not that great, if X1 sells good during holidays alone it can shrink that gap by 50 %.

Furthermore even with a 10 million gap at 45 million it still represens a considerable chunk, assuming 55 million for PS4, it's 45 %, almost half, so it's not that bad.

The gap is already pretty great. The X1 has not outsold the PS4 in any of the months of 2014. Despite the Titanfall hype train, the PS4 managed to outsell the X1 in March by ~80k. The SKU has considerably worse value than the Titanfall and Forza bundles. The bundles cost $499. When you subtract the cost of the game and Kinect ($160), you virtually get an X1 for $339. That's much better value.

Furthermore, the 55 million PS4 vs 45 million X1 is merely an example to prove my point that you cannot rely on just percentages. Glad that you understand that point. The PS4 is going to take up more than 55% marketshare because of better 3rd party support, 1st party support, specs, and so on. No one is going to buy an inferior console for the same price. Look at what Watch Dogs did. It moved much more hardware on the PS4 than on the X1. The longer the gap remains this big or even larger, the harder it'll be for the X1 to outsell the PS4. That ultimately debunks your OP.



TheDrill said:

I understand all that, the point is it's only the beginning of the generation and currently the gap is not that great, if X1 sells good during holidays alone it can shrink that gap by 50 %.

Furthermore even with a 10 million gap at 45 million it still represens a considerable chunk, assuming 55 million for PS4, it's 45 %, almost half, so it's not that bad.


Not going to happen. It will require the PS4 to fall off a clif in terms of sales, which is not going to happen. 



What I get from latest post is that theDrill have changed from X1 will definetely pass Ps4 to X1 will keep a good marketshare not trailing much behind.

Percentages and totals may or may not matter.

At the beggining of the gen MS needs a good marketshare to keep support let's say at total 20M for ps4+x1 9m:11m will give them good support (45:55%).

At the end of the gen a total 200M with ps4 150M and X1 50M even tough the difference is 100M and marketshare is 75:25% X1 would have a big enough base to not be ignored.

But of course in both cases securing exclusives will be exponentialy harder and this will only make the gap grow bigger.
But I would say theDrill accepting it won't be easy for x1 to pass ps4 is a nice start. It just took 500 posts for him to start seeing the light while some members after hundred thousands posts still keep in denial of the truth.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

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Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

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DonFerrari said:
What I get from latest post is that theDrill have changed from X1 will definetely pass Ps4 to X1 will keep a good marketshare not trailing much behind.

Percentages and totals may or may not matter.

At the beggining of the gen MS needs a good marketshare to keep support let's say at total 20M for ps4+x1 9m:11m will give them good support (45:55%).

At the end of the gen a total 200M with ps4 150M and X1 50M even tough the difference is 100M and marketshare is 75:25% X1 would have a big enough base to not be ignored.

But of course in both cases securing exclusives will be exponentialy harder and this will only make the gap grow bigger.
But I would say theDrill accepting it won't be easy for x1 to pass ps4 is a nice start. It just took 500 posts for him to start seeing the light while some members after hundred thousands posts still keep in denial of the truth.

 

At the time I made this prediction the difference between X1 sold and PS4 sold was actually 10 % people are laughing now telling me how I stealthy changed it later to 13 % and now it's almost 17 %, but at the time it was 10 %, and it's not unreasonable to assume that a price cut would increase sales.

I haven't expected the gap to widen that much, and I'm still skeptical about last weeks numbers, but it seems that the gap is still growing wider.

I assume that the PS4 sales will slow down, or stay the same, especailly since they decreased a bit during TitanFall sales, and seem to decrease worldide as well.

Either way, the X1 is still holding strong in US, and in the UK, especailly compared to other territories.

It outsold the Wii U worldwide, and I still think it will claim a good chunk of the marketshare in the US and the UK, it will canibalize out of the PS4 dominance, it won't be like in Europe or Japan.

How much the price cut will do will yet be seen, but X1 is still strong in USA despite being outsold by the PS4.



TheDrill said:
DonFerrari said:
What I get from latest post is that theDrill have changed from X1 will definetely pass Ps4 to X1 will keep a good marketshare not trailing much behind.

Percentages and totals may or may not matter.

At the beggining of the gen MS needs a good marketshare to keep support let's say at total 20M for ps4+x1 9m:11m will give them good support (45:55%).

At the end of the gen a total 200M with ps4 150M and X1 50M even tough the difference is 100M and marketshare is 75:25% X1 would have a big enough base to not be ignored.

But of course in both cases securing exclusives will be exponentialy harder and this will only make the gap grow bigger.
But I would say theDrill accepting it won't be easy for x1 to pass ps4 is a nice start. It just took 500 posts for him to start seeing the light while some members after hundred thousands posts still keep in denial of the truth.

 

At the time I made this prediction the difference between X1 sold and PS4 sold was actually 10 % people are laughing now telling me how I stealthy changed it later to 13 % and now it's almost 17 %, but at the time it was 10 %, and it's not unreasonable to assume that a price cut would increase sales.

I haven't expected the gap to widen that much, and I'm still skeptical about last weeks numbers, but it seems that the gap is still growing wider.

I assume that the PS4 sales will slow down, or stay the same, especailly since they decreased a bit during TitanFall sales, and seem to decrease worldide as well.

Either way, the X1 is still holding strong in US, and in the UK, especailly compared to other territories.

It outsold the Wii U worldwide, and I still think it will claim a good chunk of the marketshare in the US and the UK, it will canibalize out of the PS4 dominance, it won't be like in Europe or Japan.

How much the price cut will do will yet be seen, but X1 is still strong in USA despite being outsold by the PS4.

X1 fell off a cliff after Titanfall even before MS announced the Kinect-less SKU. It's April NPD was worse than any of 360's NPD's, which does not bode well. PS4 continues to rank ahead of the X1 in retailers despite the SKU announcement and at the eve of the SKU's release, it is still substantially behind the PS4.

This is reinforced by the survey mentioned earlier that 79% of the surveryers are still not interested on purchasing the X1 at $399. 43% of the 360 owners haven't bought either a PS4, X1, or Wii U yet and only 42% of those users are interested in getting an X1. Overall, only 18% of all 360 users are interested.

Long story short, X1 is not doing strong at all and will not be strong after the SKU release unless MS drastically changes their gameplan fast.