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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

Smashed on 05 June 2014

Outsold by nearly 145k worldwide, yeah...



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Aura7541 on 05 June 2014
TheDrill said:
Aura7541 said:

No, it's not close at all. Like I said, percentages are scalar quantities, not definitive quantities. 45% and 55% could be 45 and 55, or 45 billion and 55 billion. 10 isn't that much, but 10 billion is. It's ironic when you keep thumping your chest that you did your math, but in actuality, you're just trying to spin a negative outlook into an impossibly good situation for the X1.

As said before, we're potentially seeing a 600-700k gap. For the X1 to outsell the PS4 this year, it need to sell at least 25k more a week. That is not possible because the PS4 has the mindshare of the consumers and has the better games. Destiny is a pseudo-exclusive for the PS4 because Sony has exclusive advertising rights to the IP. Look what happened with Watch Dogs. Look what happened with the multiplats before that like MGS: Ground Zeroes, Tomb Raider, and Wolfenstein. The PS4 versions always sell substantially better. Driveclub is coming up. Other games like Samurai Warriors 4, Guilty Gears, Warrors Orochi 3, and more are coming later this year.

Repeating "X1 is very close" a quadrillion times won't make your arguments right. After how many weeks, you still haven't provided a single piece of persuasive evidence.

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

No, the actual numbers are what matters, not the percentage. When reports of a system getting an X% boost in sales, people are rightly skeptical of the figure because it can mean very different things. Despite a high percentage, the initial sales of said product could be low to the point that the increased amount of sales is small. Same thing applies to marketshare.

Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!

PS4 is growing its lead and it's impossible for the X1 to catch up. PS4 has the advantage in terms of specs, networking, reputation, multiplats, exclusives, genre diversity, and value. For you to deny this is absolutely silly.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 05 June 2014

/thread



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

gcah2006 on 05 June 2014
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.



GribbleGrunger on 05 June 2014
TheDrill said:
riecsou said:
TheDrill said:
riecsou said:

Hey I am still waiting for a reply from you. 

With a 27% boost for Xbox One thanks to Watch Dogs in the US on May 31st we have the numbers at 31 k also represents the highest Xbox One has sold during May.

The smallest PS4 sold in the same month is 50K. So adding 15K to the highest number of Xbox One in may that is 46K.

Since you have a master in computer science I think it is fair to say that 50K>46K

Now if by 15k increase you meant outselling the PS4 in the US by 15k , then that will put the number of the Xbox One around 65K. To reach that number Xbox One would need a 100% boost.The second week of Titanfall with bundle available + price cut + free Titanfall, Xbox One only manage to sell 60k. On the third week of Titanfall with still price cut+free Titnfall, Xbox One manage to sell 45k...

So please enlight me with your master in computer science 

Also can you check if the percentage of gap is still 13%?? I am guessing that is an easy calculation for you. 

 

marketshare wise in the US X1 is 45 % while PS4 is 55 % (between PS4 and X1 only, not including Wii U)

This is still extremely close and the price cut will definitely recover X1 sales in the USA.

So are you saying that 55% of 6.3 Millions is close to 45% of 6.3 Millions?

And it needs 15k more weekly to reaches it soon? Now I wonder what percentage 15k represent out of 6.3 Millions. Using simple math logic 15K only represent 0.2% of 6.3 Millions. You are the one with the master degree, maybe you can make more sense out of those numbers.

And what happened to the easy calculation of the gap percentage?? That should be easy for you to compute !!

If you are having trouble getting the gap percentage, I will post it later for you


When I have originally made my prediction it was the case, I will adjust it further after the first 2 or 3 weeks of seeing X1 numbers after the price cut.

55 % is by far no domination from PS4, and is easily reversable especially this early in the generation.

Can I ask you: What are Sony going to show at E3? What games are Sony going to release this year? Lots of people are far more capable of explaining to you how percentages work, but from where I'm sitting you seem to be assuming the XB1 is going to be the only platform with American centric games coming out this year. I find that odd because the PS4 is beating the XB1 in America every week ... without American centric games? What's going to change? Halo? Is that what you are counting on entirely?

The gap will be over 1 million by the end of this year in America.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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Keegs79 on 05 June 2014

I didn't imply that it wasn't or that Microsoft would be able to bounce back ahead of Sony.



TheDrill on 05 June 2014
gcah2006 said:
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.


It's not the difference between PS4 sold and X1 sold that matters, but the marketshare.



Aura7541 on 05 June 2014
TheDrill said:
gcah2006 said:
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.


It's not the difference between PS4 sold and X1 sold that matters, but the marketshare.

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. This evidence is further reinforced by the survey that I mentioned earlier.



TheDrill on 05 June 2014
Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
gcah2006 said:
TheDrill said:

I know what percentage represents, but what you fail to understand is that 45 % is still close to 55 % regardless of the quantity it repsents, that's what percent are used for, not to represent an actual number quantity.

1 % can represent a small or humongous quantity, but it's undeniable that it also represents 1/100.

Hence 45 % can represent as you have said 45 or 45 * 10 ^6, but the truth is still that 45 % is close to 55 % regardless of the actual difference between them, it's the percentage difference that matters.

If during all this generation X1 maintains close to 45 % marketshare, nobody can claim that PS4 dominated US, it will always remain a close battle.

I had made a point of not responding in this thread any more... but I can't help but use my Maths major to good use here.

I'm going to assume 55%:45% is a correct ratio of the marketshare like you have. Regardless of how many total console sales there are, this can be used to determine the 13% (and previously 10%) difference you quoted. (55-45) / 55 * 100 is a little over 18%.

As you rightly say, 45% can represent 45 * 10^6. But even using the respective figures of (55*10^6 - 45*10^6) / 55*10^6 * 100 is over 18%. And 18% isn't close. Not even in the ball park.


It's not the difference between PS4 sold and X1 sold that matters, but the marketshare.

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. 

I understand all that, the point is it's only the beginning of the generation and currently the gap is not that great, if X1 sells good during holidays alone it can shrink that gap by 50 %.

Furthermore even with a 10 million gap at 45 million it still represens a considerable chunk, assuming 55 million for PS4, it's 45 %, almost half, so it's not that bad.



Aura7541 on 05 June 2014
TheDrill said:
Aura7541 said:

Yes, the difference matters. You did not read my previous comment, did you?

"Let's say 3 years later, PS4 is at 55 million and X1 is at 45 million. That's a 10 million gap. The amount of time for the X1 to overcome that gap will take longer than overcoming a 600k gap. Let's say MS wants to overcome that 10 million gap in a year. They need to outsell the PS4 by 833,333 units a month versus 50,000 a month if they want to outsell the PS4 if the gap is 600k. That is a 1666.66% difference!!"

Point being, time is ticking for the X1 for every month that passes by and the gap has been getting larger over the course of this year. Rankings from retailers like Amazon and Gamestop show that there is not enough interest for the Xbox One-only SKU for the console to outsell its competitor, so the best X1 can do is to reduce the gap per month. The overall gap, though, is going to keep growing. 

I understand all that, the point is it's only the beginning of the generation and currently the gap is not that great, if X1 sells good during holidays alone it can shrink that gap by 50 %.

Furthermore even with a 10 million gap at 45 million it still represens a considerable chunk, assuming 55 million for PS4, it's 45 %, almost half, so it's not that bad.

The gap is already pretty great. The X1 has not outsold the PS4 in any of the months of 2014. Despite the Titanfall hype train, the PS4 managed to outsell the X1 in March by ~80k. The SKU has considerably worse value than the Titanfall and Forza bundles. The bundles cost $499. When you subtract the cost of the game and Kinect ($160), you virtually get an X1 for $339. That's much better value.

Furthermore, the 55 million PS4 vs 45 million X1 is merely an example to prove my point that you cannot rely on just percentages. Glad that you understand that point. The PS4 is going to take up more than 55% marketshare because of better 3rd party support, 1st party support, specs, and so on. No one is going to buy an inferior console for the same price. Look at what Watch Dogs did. It moved much more hardware on the PS4 than on the X1. The longer the gap remains this big or even larger, the harder it'll be for the X1 to outsell the PS4. That ultimately debunks your OP.