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Locked: Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

Epic cotdamn bumpage! lol. Thread title can remain and probably be true... but only with the word "soon" omitted.



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TheDrill said:
Shadow1980 said:

I don't doubt that the XBO will get some kind of boost, but as I explained the other day there are many reasons to think that the boost will not be significant enough for it the pass the PS4 in average monthly sales, which it would need to in order to catch up with and then pass the PS4 in LTD sales. There is simply no historical precedent for a price cut (which the Kinect-less SKU technically isn't) to provide a boost in sales of the degree and duration needed for the XBO to go from barely over 115k to over what the PS4 has been doing on average. The odds of it closing the average monthly gap between itself and the PS4, much less having a comfortable enough lead to rapidly close the LTD gap, is extremely low. MS is either going to have to get the XBO below the PS4 in price (and hope Sony doesn't follow suit with a price cut of their own) or they'll have to offer a lineup of exclusives that blows everything Sony has out of the water. There's very little difference between the two systems as they share 90% of the same games and have very similar capabilities, so it's going to come down to pricing and exclusive games. The XBO could surpass the PS4 in the months that Halo 5 and (possibly) Gears come out, but it's going to need more than that for a consistently strong performance. Individual games only ever offer short-term gains, after all.


Dont forget that I am talking about the US, last generation X360 decimated the PS3 in US and in the UK.

Microsoft has a lot of money to push into X1, furthermore software wise they can potentially buy exclusives, and Halo and Gears of war is a system seller.

At the current rate, as I have said, it would take only an average perhaps 15k increase per week to catch up in the US with Sony in a few months, that is not unrealistic, and it will grow more if Sony sells less units.

Bolded: Clearly, you did not read my post from earier: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6360669

Italics: Those games are lightyears away from their release dates. Two games are hardly enough to combat the PS4's superior multiplats and exclusives.

Underline: Again, you did not read my post from the link above. Also, you stealthly changed from X1 needing to outsell the PS4 by 10k weekly to 15k weekly. Even then, 28 weeks x 15k = 420k. That's less than the 600+k gap (500k gap when you add up all NPD results + 100+k estimate from May). Actually, I think the gap for May will be a lot greater than 100k. Watch Dogs gave the PS4 a much greater boost, so the gap could be 200k, making the overall gap 700k.

You also should clink on this link (http://dealnews.com/features/State-of-Gaming-2014-PC-Gaming-Is-on-the-Rise/1062249.html ). Only 79% of the people are still not interested in buying an X1 @ $399. 43% of the Xbox 360 users have not bought a next gen console because of price and of those 360 owners, 58% are still not interested in buying an X1. Not looking good for the X1...



Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
Shadow1980 said:

I don't doubt that the XBO will get some kind of boost, but as I explained the other day there are many reasons to think that the boost will not be significant enough for it the pass the PS4 in average monthly sales, which it would need to in order to catch up with and then pass the PS4 in LTD sales. There is simply no historical precedent for a price cut (which the Kinect-less SKU technically isn't) to provide a boost in sales of the degree and duration needed for the XBO to go from barely over 115k to over what the PS4 has been doing on average. The odds of it closing the average monthly gap between itself and the PS4, much less having a comfortable enough lead to rapidly close the LTD gap, is extremely low. MS is either going to have to get the XBO below the PS4 in price (and hope Sony doesn't follow suit with a price cut of their own) or they'll have to offer a lineup of exclusives that blows everything Sony has out of the water. There's very little difference between the two systems as they share 90% of the same games and have very similar capabilities, so it's going to come down to pricing and exclusive games. The XBO could surpass the PS4 in the months that Halo 5 and (possibly) Gears come out, but it's going to need more than that for a consistently strong performance. Individual games only ever offer short-term gains, after all.


Dont forget that I am talking about the US, last generation X360 decimated the PS3 in US and in the UK.

Microsoft has a lot of money to push into X1, furthermore software wise they can potentially buy exclusives, and Halo and Gears of war is a system seller.

At the current rate, as I have said, it would take only an average perhaps 15k increase per week to catch up in the US with Sony in a few months, that is not unrealistic, and it will grow more if Sony sells less units.

Bolded: Clearly, you did not read my post from earier: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6360669

Italics: Those games are lightyears away from their release dates. Two games are hardly enough to combat the PS4's superior multiplats and exclusives.

Underline: Again, you did not read my post from the link above. Also, you stealthly changed from X1 needing to outsell the PS4 by 10k weekly to 15k weekly. Even then, 28 weeks x 15k = 420k. That's less than the 600+k gap (500k gap when you add up all NPD results + 100+k estimate from May). Actually, I think the gap for May will be a lot greater than 100k. Watch Dogs gave the PS4 a much greater boost, so the gap could be 200k, making the overall gap 700k.

You also should clink on this link (http://dealnews.com/features/State-of-Gaming-2014-PC-Gaming-Is-on-the-Rise/1062249.html ). Only 79% of the people are still not interested in buying an X1 @ $399. 43% of the Xbox 360 users have not bought a next gen console because of price and of those 360 owners, 58% are still not interested in buying an X1. Not looking good for the X1...

At the time I made the prediction it only needed 10k weekly.

43 % of those X360 users are going to buy a next gen console when X1 price cuts.



TheDrill's being absolutely delusional if he thinks that many people will instantly rush out to buy the $399 Kinectless console.

It's still a worse value than the PS4, & still a worse value than the Xbox One being bundled with a game or two.

 

User was moderated for this post - Conegamer



Garland said:
TheDrill's being absolutely delusional if he thinks that many people will instantly rush out to buy the $399 Kinectless console.

It's still a worse value than the PS4, & still a worse value than the Xbox One being bundled with a game or two.


What's funny is when I call people delusional I get banned.

Consider this: X1 was overpriced (compared to PS4), had bad reputation and still managed to hold it's own. between PS4 and X1 (not counting Wii U)

X1 has ~ 45 % marketshare,  I can admit even 40 if you guys discredit my numbers

And futhermore it's  selling more than X360 in the same period, if that's not impressive, IDK what is.

Now you can't deny the fact that a price cut will definitely increase sales, and the FPS exclusives and Halo always sell good in US audiences, and will push consoles.

So in the US X1 is far from beaten.



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TheDrill said:
Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
Shadow1980 said:

I don't doubt that the XBO will get some kind of boost, but as I explained the other day there are many reasons to think that the boost will not be significant enough for it the pass the PS4 in average monthly sales, which it would need to in order to catch up with and then pass the PS4 in LTD sales. There is simply no historical precedent for a price cut (which the Kinect-less SKU technically isn't) to provide a boost in sales of the degree and duration needed for the XBO to go from barely over 115k to over what the PS4 has been doing on average. The odds of it closing the average monthly gap between itself and the PS4, much less having a comfortable enough lead to rapidly close the LTD gap, is extremely low. MS is either going to have to get the XBO below the PS4 in price (and hope Sony doesn't follow suit with a price cut of their own) or they'll have to offer a lineup of exclusives that blows everything Sony has out of the water. There's very little difference between the two systems as they share 90% of the same games and have very similar capabilities, so it's going to come down to pricing and exclusive games. The XBO could surpass the PS4 in the months that Halo 5 and (possibly) Gears come out, but it's going to need more than that for a consistently strong performance. Individual games only ever offer short-term gains, after all.


Dont forget that I am talking about the US, last generation X360 decimated the PS3 in US and in the UK.

Microsoft has a lot of money to push into X1, furthermore software wise they can potentially buy exclusives, and Halo and Gears of war is a system seller.

At the current rate, as I have said, it would take only an average perhaps 15k increase per week to catch up in the US with Sony in a few months, that is not unrealistic, and it will grow more if Sony sells less units.

Bolded: Clearly, you did not read my post from earier: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6360669

Italics: Those games are lightyears away from their release dates. Two games are hardly enough to combat the PS4's superior multiplats and exclusives.

Underline: Again, you did not read my post from the link above. Also, you stealthly changed from X1 needing to outsell the PS4 by 10k weekly to 15k weekly. Even then, 28 weeks x 15k = 420k. That's less than the 600+k gap (500k gap when you add up all NPD results + 100+k estimate from May). Actually, I think the gap for May will be a lot greater than 100k. Watch Dogs gave the PS4 a much greater boost, so the gap could be 200k, making the overall gap 700k.

You also should clink on this link (http://dealnews.com/features/State-of-Gaming-2014-PC-Gaming-Is-on-the-Rise/1062249.html ). Only 79% of the people are still not interested in buying an X1 @ $399. 43% of the Xbox 360 users have not bought a next gen console because of price and of those 360 owners, 58% are still not interested in buying an X1. Not looking good for the X1...

At the time I made the prediction it only needed 10k weekly.

43 % of those X360 users are going to buy a next gen console when X1 price cuts.

The 10k weekly tagline was wrong from the beginning. X1 needed to outsell the PS4 weekly by an even greater margin at the time you made your prediction. Your prediction will never come true because the PS4 will outsell the X1 by great margins when Driveclub and Destiny releases later this year. The PS4 might get some boost in the US when Samurai Warriors 4 and Guilty Gears come out, too. Did you not read carefully enough from the survey? 43% of 360 users did not buy a next-gen console yet. Of those 43%, 58% are still not interested in buying an X1. That means that only 18% (multiply 43% by 0.42) of the 360 users who have not bought a next-gen console are interested in buying an X1. That is horrendously bad.



TheDrill said:
Garland said:
TheDrill's being absolutely delusional if he thinks that many people will instantly rush out to buy the $399 Kinectless console.

It's still a worse value than the PS4, & still a worse value than the Xbox One being bundled with a game or two.


What's funny is when I call people delusional I get banned.

Consider this: X1 was overpriced (compared to PS4), had bad reputation and still managed to hold it's own. between PS4 and X1 (not counting Wii U)

X1 has ~ 45 % marketshare,  I can admit even 40 if you guys discredit my numbers

And futhermore it's  selling more than X360 in the same period, if that's not impressive, IDK what is.

Now you can't deny the fact that a price cut will definitely increase sales, and the FPS exclusives and Halo always sell good in US audiences, and will push consoles.

So in the US X1 is far from beaten.

Um, we are potentially seeing a 700k gap in the US after May NPD results come out. A debundling will only provide a transient boost. We're only 4 days from the SKU launch and on Amazon, PS4 stands at #6. Kinect-less Xbox One.... #84. ( http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=pd_dp_ts_vg_10 )



TheDrill said:

Dont forget that I am talking about the US, last generation X360 decimated the PS3 in US and in the UK.

Microsoft has a lot of money to push into X1, furthermore software wise they can potentially buy exclusives, and Halo and Gears of war is a system seller.

At the current rate, as I have said, it would take only an average perhaps 15k increase per week to catch up in the US with Sony in a few months, that is not unrealistic, and it will grow more if Sony sells less units.

Hey I am still waiting for a reply from you. 

With a 27% boost for Xbox One thanks to Watch Dogs in the US on May 31st we have the numbers at 31 k also represents the highest Xbox One has sold during May.

The smallest PS4 sold in the same month is 50K. So adding 15K to the highest number of Xbox One in may that is 46K.

Since you have a master in computer science I think it is fair to say that 50K>46K

Now if by 15k increase you meant outselling the PS4 in the US by 15k , then that will put the number of the Xbox One around 65K. To reach that number Xbox One would need a 100% boost.The second week of Titanfall with bundle available + price cut + free Titanfall, Xbox One only manage to sell 60k. On the third week of Titanfall with still price cut+free Titnfall, Xbox One manage to sell 45k...

So please enlight me with your master in computer science 

Also can you check if the percentage of gap is still 13%?? I am guessing that is an easy calculation for you. 



riecsou said:
TheDrill said:

Dont forget that I am talking about the US, last generation X360 decimated the PS3 in US and in the UK.

Microsoft has a lot of money to push into X1, furthermore software wise they can potentially buy exclusives, and Halo and Gears of war is a system seller.

At the current rate, as I have said, it would take only an average perhaps 15k increase per week to catch up in the US with Sony in a few months, that is not unrealistic, and it will grow more if Sony sells less units.

Hey I am still waiting for a reply from you. 

With a 27% boost for Xbox One thanks to Watch Dogs in the US on May 31st we have the numbers at 31 k also represents the highest Xbox One has sold during May.

The smallest PS4 sold in the same month is 50K. So adding 15K to the highest number of Xbox One in may that is 46K.

Since you have a master in computer science I think it is fair to say that 50K>46K

Now if by 15k increase you meant outselling the PS4 in the US by 15k , then that will put the number of the Xbox One around 65K. To reach that number Xbox One would need a 100% boost.The second week of Titanfall with bundle available + price cut + free Titanfall, Xbox One only manage to sell 60k. On the third week of Titanfall with still price cut+free Titnfall, Xbox One manage to sell 45k...

So please enlight me with your master in computer science 

Also can you check if the percentage of gap is still 13%?? I am guessing that is an easy calculation for you. 

 

marketshare wise in the US X1 is 45 % while PS4 is 55 % (between PS4 and X1 only, not including Wii U)

This is still extremely close and the price cut will definitely recover X1 sales in the USA.



TheDrill said:

marketshare wise in the US X1 is 45 % while PS4 is 55 % (between PS4 and X1 only, not including Wii U)

This is still extremely close and the price cut will definitely recover X1 sales in the USA.

That's not close. Percentages are scalar quantities, not definitive quantities.

For instance, Sony sells 55 PS4's and MS sells 45 X1's. That's close because that's only a 10 unit difference.

However, the sales figures are much larger and the gap is 600-700k. That isn't small. As said before, your original 10k per week (and after that, 15k per week) prediction is totally false. The X1 needs to outsell the PS4 by 21500 to 25000 units per week, more than twice your original "prediction". To outsell the PS4 each week by that much is impossible. Why? As we seen from multiplats like Tomb Raider, MGS: Ground Zeroes, Wolfenstein, and Watch Dogs, they move more PS4's than X1's. Because Sony has exclusive advertising rights to Destiny, more people will be inclined to buy PS4's.