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Locked: Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

At this point, all the taunting of The Drill should cease, but perhaps, so should this thread. One is counter productive and the other, well, isn't happening anytime soon.



                                                                                                                                            

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CGI-Quality said:
At this point, all the taunting of The Drill should cease, but perhaps, so should this thread. One is counter productive and the other, well, isn't happening anytime soon.


I'd like to second that. Bottom line is that his initial prediction was wrong; if he'd like to continue to readjust his numbers, again, then he can of course feel free to make a new prediction thread, new reasoning, new estimate, etc, etc, etc. But this one is loooong past its expiration date, and should be filed under 'Wrong Prediction' before the sheer weight of all its posts draws it into itself and becomes a swirling, gaping maw of Interwebs-blackholeness. o.o I can already feel the gravitational puuuull. T_T

Also agree on ceasing the taunting, but to be fair, I've poked around a few chunks of this thread, and he seems to ignore many of the ones who are actually trying to address him reasonably. xP Could be taunting is the only thing that gets a response from him?



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Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.

Even after a pseudo price cut of $100, the XBO still can't beat the PS4. August will likely show a similar difference, and in September the PS4 will destroy the XBO thanks to Destiny (it may be a "pretend exclusive," but that's good enough). The XBO will not take first place in the U.S. Not soon, and unless some miracle happens, not ever. The official NPD gap is now 684k LTD and 492k YTD in favor of the PS4, figures that will almost certainly keep growing. Sorry, dude, but your claim has gone from unlikely to exceedingly improbable. The XBO is almost guaranteed to be destined for second place even in its best market. This thread really should end. Maybe another one like it may warrant creation in a couple of years if MS can somehow pull off a miracle (getting the XBO permanently below the PS4 in price might work) but for the forseeable future, it just ain't happening.



TheDrill said:

Xbox 360 has dominated USA  last generation, and people forget that even with all the bad reputation, the higher price cut X1 didn't sell significantly less than the PS4 in here.

In the USA, as of today the Xbox one only sold  approximatively only 11 % less than PS4 did

And for the last few weeks X1 sold on par or even slightly more than the PS4.

Considering all the bad reputation surrounding X1, related to its DRM, the higher price, it still managed to hold its own in the US pretty solidly, and even sold more software overall than the PS4.

Now that the price cut has been announced, as well as Halo and the ability to run IE and netflix without paying for gold, I expect it to sell a lot more.

A considerable advantage is that all these announcement, especailly the price cut will convince a lot of xbox 360 owners to upgrade, and considering how well xbox 360 sold in USA, there are many of them.

The current difference between PS4 and X1 in the US is  322004 units.

That means that if xbox starts selling 10k more than it does currently,  (only a 20 % increase in sales) or about 60k, it needs only  32 weeks, or 8 months to catch up. Considering that it will sell a lot during Christmas, It will have more units sold in the US by January 2015, and start outselling it from there.

After that it will slowly grow and eventually sell more long than the PS4. (in the US)

 

EDIT: Many people consider that I claimed that it will outsell the PS4 globally, I only meant in the USA, I apologize for any formulations that lead to further confussion.




Time for me to eat crow. I was sure the X1 would be gaining on the PS4 by now to overtake it in the U.S. by the end of the year. Not happening I guess.



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Well, I was going to post in here that you're wrong, but it looks like a bunch already have, so I don't want to flog a dead horse. Though, I think some are being a little too mean spirited in their replies. Maybe a mod should like this, now, before things get out of hand and out comes the banhammer.



My spiel after June NPD came out:

Launching a new SKU definitely helps a system's sales, but it never ever permanently boosts the baseline. It only provides a temporary spike. This is where TheDrill totally misunderstood. He thought that a debundling or pseudo-pricecut would permanently boost sales to the point of eventually outselling the PS4 in the US. However, events like this never happens, especially when the new SKU has significantly worse value than the Titanfall and Forza 5 bundles.

The Titanfall and Kinectless SKU months were the best chances for the X1 to prove that it can go toe-to-toe with its competitor. However, March NPD was a total shocker; the PS4 outsold the X1 by a significant margin in spite of the most hyped game I've ever seen in my life. In May, MS decided to remove the Kinect to boost sales for the X1, especially after an anemic April and May. While sales definitely rose (it's not that hard to do better than it did in May), PS4 still managed to come out on top. And the PS4 managed to pull this off without a major exclusive or multiplat.

The next months are going to be brutal for the X1. This month, the PS4 gets the Destiny Beta and The Last of Us Remastered. In September, it is going to get Destiny with a bunch of exclusive content and a white PS4 bundle. In October, it'll get Driveclub. Halo MCC will definitely help boost X1 sales, but it is releasing in the midst of a slew of major multiplat titles. In addition, no one game can change a system's fate singlehandedly. It is always a team effort.



Aura7541 said:
My spiel after June NPD came out:

Launching a new SKU definitely helps a system's sales, but it never ever permanently boosts the baseline. It only provides a temporary spike. This is where TheDrill totally misunderstood. He thought that a debundling or pseudo-pricecut would permanently boost sales to the point of eventually outselling the PS4 in the US. However, events like this never happens, especially when the new SKU has significantly worse value than the Titanfall and Forza 5 bundles.

The Titanfall and Kinectless SKU months were the best chances for the X1 to prove that it can go toe-to-toe with its competitor. However, March NPD was a total shocker; the PS4 outsold the X1 by a significant margin in spite of the most hyped game I've ever seen in my life. In May, MS decided to remove the Kinect to boost sales for the X1, especially after an anemic April and May. While sales definitely rose (it's not that hard to do better than it did in May), PS4 still managed to come out on top. And the PS4 managed to pull this off without a major exclusive or multiplat.

The next months are going to be brutal for the X1. This month, the PS4 gets the Destiny Beta and The Last of Us Remastered. In September, it is going to get Destiny with a bunch of exclusive content and a white PS4 bundle. In October, it'll get Driveclub. Halo MCC will definitely help boost X1 sales, but it is releasing in the midst of a slew of major multiplat titles. In addition, no one game can change a system's fate singlehandedly. It is always a team effort.


The short version of this

PS4 dominates this Gen
The X1 is shit and has no chance
Without the USA the X1 won't even come close - SAles will go ham when they win by 1 sold unit in Halo 5 month.
Only thing that matters - Even if they are behind by then millions of units in the USA and 30 Million Worldwide
That 1 units they were better in Halo 5 month will be his straw for the rest of this gen

next up for christmas
299$ X1 with Halo MCC,CoD,Forza and 5 years of XBL Gold



IF this thread is still going in July, it's going to be mind bogglingly terrible to witness. As the June numbers, still losing by a large gap, were buffed by the few days of big $399 SKU sales, and that won't exist for July. It's going to be a nightmare, and unspinnable.

I doubt we'll get any MS PR statement at all for the July numbers.



I love this thread now.