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End of 2007 Predictions

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Hi, I would like to conjecture the following numbers for each console at the closing of 2007: X360: 18 - 21 million Wii: 16 - 18 million PS3: 13 - 15 million I have many reasons for this, if you'd like to hear them, just ask. What do you guys think?



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Estimated 2006 numbers first - (skip below dotted line for 2007 predictions) Despite what this website says I believe sales are currently like this (rounded to the 100k when data is actually available): USA: Wii 1.1 million PS3 700k 360 4.5 million Mexico, Canada + Latin America: approx 15% of USA sales based on population, economic and launch conjecture.. 360: 675k Wii: 165k PS3: 105k North America: Wii: 1.265 million PS3: 805,000 360: 5.175 million Marketshare North America Next-Gen 2006: 360 = 71.4% Wii = 17.46% PS3 = 11.14% Japan (as of January 7, 2007) for Next-Gen: Wii: 1.1 million PS3: 500k 360: 300k Marketshare Next gen Japan: Wii: 57.89% PS3: 26.31% 360: 15.8% I'd like to do Europe/Australia but I don't have figures for them. I do know the Wii sold 350k in week one. Pretend that the figures for Wii and 360 are flawless in Others (likely lower) as they are and you get Wii: .94 million PS3 = Nada 360 = 2.64 (not doing marketshare until PS3 releases) In which case world totals on this site vs estimates on real data at the start of 07' are: 360: 8.115 million (.23/8.34)(100) = 2.75% off Wii: 3.305 million (.7/4)(100) = 17.5% off PS3: 1.305 million (.1/2)(100) = 5% off Consider also: if Sony shipped 2 million worldwide...65% sellthrough to customers? if Nintendo shipped 4 million worldwide...83% sellthrough to customers? If Microsoft shipped 10.4 million worldwide...78% sellthrough to customers? Worldwide estimated market share.. 360 - 63% Wii - 26% PS3 - 11% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now for 2007 Predictions: - Sony and Nintendo each increase worldwide marketshare at least 10% Why? Well, for one Sony is still absent in Europe. Two, the Wii has taken off with the Japanese - as a game not packed in - Wii Sports has sold around 700k, on a system with a userbase of 1.1 million in Japan. In addtion, Dragon Quest IX on the DS will lift all Nintendo platforms in sales. Therefore, Microsoft will lose what little ground it has made in Japan. Sony will not be able to adequately meet Japenese demand, focusing instead on launch shortages in Europe. - Microsoft will make significant inroads in non US & Japanese markets because the PS3 launched too late, and the Wii can not meet demand world wide until mid 2007. The consoles will be scarcer in Europe than in the US. With all that said...I see final 2007 market share and sales like this: Europe/Australia Japan NA 360 - 65% Wii - 65% 360 - 48% Wii - 20% PS3 - 25% Wii - 32% PS3 - 15% 360 - 10% PS3 - 20% (10 million next-gen) (8 million next-gen) (15 million next-gen) I'm also assuming many will buy more than one console, making the total userbase smaller then what it is sold by combining the sales of all three consoles. 360 = Europe - 6.5 mill Japan - 0.8 mill Americas - 7.2 mill Worldwide - 14.5 million Wii = Europe 2.0 million Japan 5.2 million Americas 4.8 million Worldwide - 12 million PS3 = Europe 1.5 million Japan 2.0 million Americas 3.0 million Worldwide - 6.5 million Worldwide marketshare end 2007 360: 43.9% Wii: 36.4% PS3: 19.7% 2006 v 2007 360 - 63% 360 - 43.9% Wii - 26% Wii - 36.4% PS3 - 11% PS3 - 19.7%



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

DS -- 62-65M PSP -- 28M X360 ~ 18M Wii ~ 15M PS3 ~ 14M



My numbers DS : 53 million . PSP :29 million . X360 :14 million . Wii :15 million . Playstation 3 : 15 million .



Hmm very early to do this but shipments here are my predictions: End of 2006 if all demands were met: X360= 10.4 million Wii= 4 million PS3= 2 million End of 2007 X360= 18 million Wii= 15million PS3- 12 million AS for actual sales end of 2006: X360= 8.6 million Wii= 3.5 million PS3= 1.5 million DS= 36 million PSP= 20 million End of 2007 X360= 15 million Wii= 14 million PS3= 10 million DS= 55 million PSP= 28 million I didn't include shipments for PSP and DS cause really right now they are decieving with Sony overhshipping a lot and counting ones in warehouses while the DS is selling out almost to the limits of shipments. But actual sales definetly shows the difference. 2007 is definetly where we'll finally see the utter defeat of the PSP. I think 55 million for the DS at the end of 2007 simply might be an understatement when it could probably sale up to 60 million. While the PSP even getting 8 million could be too much. PSP dies next year and we'll all know it. It gave a good run yet overall put something over the other: features over games. Maybe that's a sign of things to come. PSP2 may come out but I think we alll know how it'd fare. I also see a dramatic drop in 360 hype, shipments, sales, and simple want. With all 3 consoles out I just dont' think 360 can keep up. I mean many people say well its' got a huge lineup in 2007 that's enough to carry it. No it's not. 360 had an entire year with no competition. It was competing against nothing. That was the biggest advantage they had to gain a huge lead and they blew it. No game lineup can give them that same advantage and we're going to see that take place in 2007.



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I can actually see three scenarios happening... Status Quo: 360 keeps lead in USA, 'others' Wii sells about as well in US, less in others, more in Japan than 360 PS3 close 3rd in USA once exclusives come, 2nd in Japan, distant 3rd in 'others' Total sales would be like this in this scenario... Wii - NA: 4-6 million Japan 6-8 million Others 1-3 Million 11-17 million in sales...call it 14 million 360 - NA 8-10 million Japan .5-1 million Others 6-9 million 14.5-20 million in sales...call it 17.25 million PS3 - NA 3-4.5 million Japan 2-4 million Others .5-2 million 5.5-10.5 million in sales...call it 8 million But then you have to consider these scenarios: Microsoft: Best case scenario: 360 dominates NA and Europe by being easier to develop for and on par with PS3 in power, and slowly Japanese developers can make enough profit selling games in those markets that they bring exclusive Xbox games to Japan, giving the 360 better sales in Japan. The Wii does not appeal to some developers, because they can not figure out how to utilize the motion sensing... In which case, Microsoft beats Sony at Sony's game...and makes in roads against Nintendo. 360: NA 11-14 million Japan 1-3 million Others 9-11 million 21-28 million...call it 24.5 million Wii: NA 3-4.5 million Japan 3-5 million Others 1-2 million 7-11.5 million...call it 9.25 million PS3: NA 1-2 million Japan 2-4 million Others .5-1 3.5-7 million...call it 5.25 million Microsoft: Worst Case Scenario Gamers fall in love with the potential of the PS3 and give it the benefit of the doubt. The Wii becomes an unstoppable force in Japan like the DS and does not face hardware shortages in Europe. With large install bases in NA Wii and PS3 become proftiable platforms to develop exclusive games for. 360: NA 6.5-8.5 million Japan .5-.7million Others 3-6 million 10-15.2 million...call it 12.6 million Wii: NA 5-7 million Japan 7-9 million Others 2-4 million 14-20 million...call it 17 million PS3: NA 4-6 million Japan 2.5-4.5 million Others 1.5-3.5 million 8-14 million...call it 11 million I'd put the odds of each scenario like this.. Status Quo: 67% Best Case: 22% Worst Case: 11%



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu