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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nintendo Waving The White Flag On Wii U? Only Forecasting 3.6 mill Shipments

Soundwave on 07 May 2014
ToxicJosh said:
I reckon they're lowballing.

Each game they (and we) have expected to make a big splash hasn't (Mario 3D, Pikmin 3, Wii Fit, Wind Waker), so betting on Mario Kart 8 and Smash going nova is a little naïve.

If you break the forecast down (and this is speculation, I've not read their reports), I think they're probably saying 2 mil for Xmas, maybe .6 for Mario Kart and Smash and then 1 mil spread out over the year, which is an average of ~19k per week.

That is a very low estimate, if they had a forecast of say, 5 million (2.5 xmas, 1 MK/Smash, 1.5 rest - ~30k per week), which still looks fairly accurate, and missed it, then investors would be flipping out.

They've forecast low, so that they only need to adjust upwards.

I actually think it's a fairly honest forecast on Nintendo's part, probably knowing they can't keep BSing investors forever. They had to give an honest forecast this time around because Iwata has a shareholder's vote of confidence coming in June, he can't be seen to be lying to investors flat out. 

They shipped 2.72 this past fiscal year, assumming Mario Kart 8 gives them a sizable bump of say 800k extra Wii Us sold and Smash U is about the equivalent of what Mario 3D World was last year ... that's probably a pretty fair assesment. Honestly they'll probably have to sweat to get to 3.6 mill. 



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Zero999 on 07 May 2014
DevilRising said:
Not repeating an overly generous/optimistic forecast like last year, is not "waving the white flag".

It's a hell of a lot smarter to under-shoot your projections, and then surpass them, than it is to far-overshoot, and then look stupid when you far undersell that.

That sounds about right but, hey, it's nintendo, people would bash it regardless of what he said.



Soundwave on 07 May 2014
Zero999 said:
Soundwave said:
Zero999 said:

Posts like this are laughable, at best. It's weird that so many keep trying, knowing the words will probably bite them in the ass later.

You need to chill out dude. The system you keep defending is a trainwreck from a market performance POV, sooner or later you're the one who's going to have to accept that reality. 

There's been some huge bullish Wii U supporters on this board before and they've since dissapeared, most likely because the system has wildly underperformed after they made a huge fuss about it being a sure fire success. The people who were doubtful about the system early on have been vindicated as being right at virtually every quarterly Nintendo report. 

Some people just can't seperate their love for a company's games with actual cold, hard market data. 

bold: you are one of those people.

people kept saying crap about the wii even during it's peak years. So it's kinda normal but still laughable that people will bash wii u with BS.


I'm just curious, do you realistically expect some kind of great turn around for the Wii U? What do you expect it to sell next fiscal year? 



LiquorandGunFun on 07 May 2014

Much more realistic than 9 million. I guess the drugs are wearing off on iwata.



 

Soundwave on 07 May 2014

It's actually not smart to low ball one of your product's sales forecasts on purpose, because it will weigh down your stock price for no reason other than a short lived shot at overperforming one year later (by which time you will have needlessly weighed down your stock for no reason).

Companies either tell the truth about forecasts or usually forecast a tad higher. There's really not much benefit to purposely low balling your own product forecasts. 



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Xenostar on 07 May 2014

As i said in the financial report thread, Nintendo are winding Wii U down now, they will have a new system out for xmas 2015.

Would not be surprised now if we never see a new Zelda game for Wii U now, development will be switched to whatever is next.



radishhead on 07 May 2014

I feel that it'll reach closer to 4.5 million, but underestimating it is much safer and sensible than the crazy predictions they've been making lately



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generic-user-1 on 07 May 2014
Werix357 said:

Yeah I'm glad Nintendo have realized the Wii U is not going be a success, I just hope the people/person responsible for the Wii U steps down and that Nintendo promote or hire someone that has a proven track record with designing successful consumer electronics devices.

A new console in 2016 would make sense


like hmm iwata?



Soundwave on 07 May 2014
Xenostar said:
As i said in the financial report thread, Nintendo are winding Wii U down now, they will have a new system out for xmas 2015.

Would not be surprised now if we never see a new Zelda game for Wii U now, development will be switched to whatever is next.


I think Wii U will get that Zelda game, but it will also be a cross-platform title (like Twilight Princess was for GCN and Wii) for another Nintendo platform, probably their next portable, which may be a hybrid type format (portable/home play). 



Hedra42 on 07 May 2014

I think the projection for Wii U sales is realistic, when looking at the 2.72m shipped during the last fiscal year, and factoring in the release of MK8 and Smash Bros during this year.