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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global HW/SW April 26th up!

vivster said:
I kinda hope PS4 sales go down, so they can throw some more stock at the countries who need it most.

I already fear that PS4 will be hopelessly outsold in the holidays because they can't save up enough stock by then. I don't expect any stock issues on WiiU or X1 side.

Would be kinda funny to have WiiU stock issues on Holiday... Would Nintendo be so bad at predicting their usual sales trend to miss the only time of the year were their console have great sales potential?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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I find it slightly perplexing that vgc adjusts weekly numbers with a week, more or less, of originally publishing them when there is no external data (like NPD) that drives the adjustment. This suggests internal data is driving the change, which begs the question of what internal data change has lead to the, sometimes significant, adjustment? Did new data come in? In which case the originally published data was actually only provisional not final. Or did the predictive algorithm throw up an anomaly?

I don't mind unexplained adjustments when it's clear that external data (NPD, quarterly shipment reports) is behind the adjustment. But substantial adjustments within a week without obvious external data driving it does warrant a brief explanation.

're UK numbers - seems like Titanfall is helping to drive xb one sales more than I predicted. PS4 does need an exclusive game that actually excites prospective buyers if it wants to establish a clear lead on xb one. Will be interesting to watch.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

taspao said:
ps4 low japan sales...?who can explain me, why is this happening!

The lack of Knack bundles!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

You need to realize one thing about VGchartz undertracking PS4 in US.

They are losing all their credibility left

I give one example : every board where I go, nobody uses VGchartz anymore because of NPD showing that PS4 is above Xbone each month.

Simple as that. The good thing is that VGchartz fixed their numbers after NPD. That's great. But too late each time.



Jay70sgamer said:

Lol you are really reaching thinking it's gonna sell at its current pace for the next for the next 6 years lol it's barely selling 13,000 a week in the usa alone ..let me break it down further for you ...it will have to sell 208,000 ps3 or xbox360 a week for two years ....not even ps4 is selling that many units a week at this time and ps3 is only selling 12,000 units a week in the usa at this moment do you really think it's gonna outsell the ps4 in the future come on man give it up wii sold the most consoles this generation and no one is gonna catch it and you even said it yourself if it sells at its pace right now it will still be 10,000,000 consoles short after 15 years on the market lol generation 7 is over lol 

How am I reaching? The PS2 kept selling when "gen 6 was over". PS1 kept selling when "gen 5 was over". PS3 can't keep selling when "gen 7 is over"? Stop talking about 208k a week for two years. Nobody is saying that. You're just clinging to that ridiculous number to say "lol no way it'll catch the Wii". I said 45k a week (the pace its on now), selling multiple years into the life of the PS4. Do you think the price won't drop? Do you think the PS3 won't be put into markets that it'll actually sell in at say....$199 or maybe even $149? You know the PS2 got games until 2013 (PES 2014), right? Those last markets aren't gonna boost the sales tremendously, but it'll keep the PS3 afloat. 

Nobody said the PS3 will start outselling the PS4. But that isn't a requirement to reach 100M, necessarily. For some reason, you think it needs to be done in the next two years. I dunno why. Why can't the PS3 sell for another 5-6 years when the PS1 and 2 had just as much time on the market? And I said in 6 years (counting this year since it is into the PS4s life) it'll be at 95M, at the current rates, factoring in nothing else. That means it should be done by 2019. PS3 released in 2006 (and at the end of 2006 no less). Less than 13 years on the market = 15 years? And 5.5M short= 10M short? I can take you to some night school math classes if you want.



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vivster said:

I would cut VGC some slack. They do not have that many data points and it seems those lie mostly in Xbox territory. They should listen to their data first and only second to trends. If they're just blindly adjusting their numbers to trends this whole thing becomes pointless guess work. If at some point their data speaks the truth they would be the fools by changing them due to "popular demand". I'd rather trust my own gathered data even if it seems biased than adjust them for popular beliefs.

They're still adjusting them when they gathered more data so I don't see a problem.

 

I agree completely. I just don't get why it's suddenly forbidden to express your doubt about the numbers.

Most of the users doing so back up their prediction whether it's last week's numbers, NPD, Amazon ranking, etc.

Aren't predictions and crow eating part of why vgc is fun?



Mike_L said:
vivster said:

I would cut VGC some slack. They do not have that many data points and it seems those lie mostly in Xbox territory. They should listen to their data first and only second to trends. If they're just blindly adjusting their numbers to trends this whole thing becomes pointless guess work. If at some point their data speaks the truth they would be the fools by changing them due to "popular demand". I'd rather trust my own gathered data even if it seems biased than adjust them for popular beliefs.

They're still adjusting them when they gathered more data so I don't see a problem.

 

I agree completely. I just don't get why it's suddenly forbidden to express your doubt about the numbers.

Most of the users doing so back up their prediction whether it's last week's numbers, NPD, Amazon ranking, etc.

Aren't predictions and crow eating part of why vgc is fun?


I agree but I have a question, what is the VG's source of their little data points ?



GribbleGrunger said:

I'm sorry but that's very strange logic. Questioning the numbers based on trends to date and NPD results isn't 'pessimistic', it's logical thinking. Ignoring those trends and just automatically believing the numbers without question is narrow minded, or 'optimistic'. There's some very odd rational going on in these sales threads just lately.


i cant understand why this is so hard to understand. could have XB1 outsell PS4 in april NPD? yes, it could have. nobody is saying its impossible or noo way its gonna happen. but, based on all the data that we have and the recent events that happened, its logical to assume that the PS4 outsold it, and when we see VGC showing XB1 > PS4 in usa when it has been wrong for the past 3 months, its logical to question the numbers. 

and the only thing that is childish in these threads are these pathetic attempts to "call out" other users, when these users questioning the numbers have actually been right. 



WebMasterFlex said:
Mike_L said:
vivster said:

I would cut VGC some slack. They do not have that many data points and it seems those lie mostly in Xbox territory. They should listen to their data first and only second to trends. If they're just blindly adjusting their numbers to trends this whole thing becomes pointless guess work. If at some point their data speaks the truth they would be the fools by changing them due to "popular demand". I'd rather trust my own gathered data even if it seems biased than adjust them for popular beliefs.

They're still adjusting them when they gathered more data so I don't see a problem.

 

I agree completely. I just don't get why it's suddenly forbidden to express your doubt about the numbers.

Most of the users doing so back up their prediction whether it's last week's numbers, NPD, Amazon ranking, etc.

Aren't predictions and crow eating part of why vgc is fun?


I agree but I have a question, what is the VG's source of their little data points ?

 

Sales figures on VGChartz are based on estimates extrapolated from small retail samples. When Brett Walton (the owner of the site) was asked he gave the following answer:


 

"The methodology we use for all of our charts in all regions is the same and our data is arrived at by a combination of the following:

- Sampled direct sell-through data
- Industry knowledge and experience - applying past trends in terms of marketshares, regional breakdowns, casual vs hardcore and so on 
- plenty of statistical analysis, regression calculations, market projections
- Contact with industry figures - buy-side analysts (such as Pachter / Divnich), sell-side analysts who work with us on specific products / projects, manufacturers who work with us to project sales of their key titles
- Retail checks - we have a team who talk to stores and estimate shipment figures for low-stock and hard to find items which we struggle to track with our normal data samples.

Exactly how we get from these various sources of data to final figures differs from game to game and console to console and our exact methodologies are confidential for obvious reasons."



Mike_L said:
WebMasterFlex said:
Mike_L said:
vivster said:

I would cut VGC some slack. They do not have that many data points and it seems those lie mostly in Xbox territory. They should listen to their data first and only second to trends. If they're just blindly adjusting their numbers to trends this whole thing becomes pointless guess work. If at some point their data speaks the truth they would be the fools by changing them due to "popular demand". I'd rather trust my own gathered data even if it seems biased than adjust them for popular beliefs.

They're still adjusting them when they gathered more data so I don't see a problem.

 

I agree completely. I just don't get why it's suddenly forbidden to express your doubt about the numbers.

Most of the users doing so back up their prediction whether it's last week's numbers, NPD, Amazon ranking, etc.

Aren't predictions and crow eating part of why vgc is fun?


I agree but I have a question, what is the VG's source of their little data points ?

 

Sales figures on VGChartz are based on estimates extrapolated from small retail samples. When Brett Walton (the owner of the site) was asked he gave the following answer:


 

"The methodology we use for all of our charts in all regions is the same and our data is arrived at by a combination of the following:

- Sampled direct sell-through data
- Industry knowledge and experience - applying past trends in terms of marketshares, regional breakdowns, casual vs hardcore and so on 
- plenty of statistical analysis, regression calculations, market projections
- Contact with industry figures - buy-side analysts (such as Pachter / Divnich), sell-side analysts who work with us on specific products / projects, manufacturers who work with us to project sales of their key titles
- Retail checks - we have a team who talk to stores and estimate shipment figures for low-stock and hard to find items which we struggle to track with our normal data samples.

Exactly how we get from these various sources of data to final figures differs from game to game and console to console and our exact methodologies are confidential for obvious reasons."

Thank you very much. That's the best answer I have read since I'm here.

If NPD shows PS4 outsold - again - X1 in USA for April. What does that mean for VG ? They "made up" too much their numbers ?