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Forums - Gaming Discussion - PS4 estimated to sell 17 million & XB1 10 million by the end of 2014

Xenostar said:
BenVTrigger said:
Both are currently in free fall.

Prepare for an ungodly bad summer. Both beed big exclusive games ASAP


Will there be a Watch Dogs boost?

No doubt, but it won't sustain for the Summer.



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I dont see those numbers valid for 2014,

from 2015 when developers stop cross gen games maby they will get a decent boost on their sales.

I think also both consoles need a pricecut, my 200 dollar gpu on my pc is 50% faster than ps4 gpu.



17 million is a little high I think..ima say between 14-15 million ps4 and between 10-11 xbones



BenVTrigger said:

Both are currently in free fall.

Prepare for an ungodly bad summer. Both need big exclusive games ASAP


I agree. Unfortunately for both Microsoft and Sony, the Summer is filled with big blockbuster exclusive Nintendo games.



I will hold my 2013 estimated.

PS4: 18 million shipped
Xbone: 9.8 million shipped



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15.3 is a little high, unless the PS4 can stay flat for the entire summer. I would say your original prediction is more probable with current sales but we'll see.



Davman said:

I dont see those numbers valid for 2014,

from 2015 when developers stop cross gen games maby they will get a decent boost on their sales.

I think also both consoles need a pricecut, my 200 dollar gpu on my pc is 50% faster than ps4 gpu.


The compute method is actually pretty simple.

In the same time period in 2007 (when both consoles were available for the first time), X360 sold 19.6% of its total annual sales, while PS3 had sold 22.9%. X360 is slightly lower due to the Chrismass shift for the console which is relatively more popular in US (expecting a higher sales volume towards the year end).

In other words, the total annual Xbox sales is around 5 times the amount sold until early April, while this ratio is about 4.5x for PS. Applying the same ratios with the given annual sales so far and adding them on top of the end of 2013 sales, you get the aforementioned results.

However, this is a point estimate. So we finally introduce a confidence interval, which I estimate to be about 2/3 of the previous interval, and ta da, you get the estimate range.

This almost (95%) guarantees to be accurate, though not impeccably precise.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

unless we don't take into consideration the facts at hand your prediction is nobel at heart.

Fact is ps4 is dead in japan. Barely outselling 3ds worldwide. If numbers continue trend it will sell 400,000 a month and in summer every console usually drops so it will be worse. Momention is slowing down for ps4. 17 million based on current sales is based on nothing but air. It would have to sell a million a month to reach 14 million. When was the last month to sell million?
Feburary?



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ethomaz said:
I will hold my 2013 estimated.

PS4: 18 million shipped
Xbone: 9.8 million shipped


Your XB1 is estimate is within the confidence of my estimate, so it is in agreement.

Your PS4 estimate seems a bit too high by 0.5 million from the upperbound, though not by much.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

ninetailschris said:
unless we don't take into consideration the facts at hand your prediction is nobel at heart.

Fact is ps4 is dead in japan. Barely outselling 3ds worldwide. If numbers continue trend it will sell 400,000 a month and in summer every console usually drops so it will be worse. Momention is slowing down for ps4. 17 million based on current sales is based on nothing but air. It would have to sell a million a month to reach 14 million. When was the last month to sell million?
Feburary?

So it is bad that can just "barely" outsell 3ds with very few games and higher price... Wow.