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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Ethomaz's Dismantling the Myths: Amazon.com's Best Sellers is Not Accurate to the Predict Overall Hardware Sales in US (Checking: Accuracy with Software)

Kasz216 on 26 April 2014
ethomaz said:

Kasz216 said:

.It's also noteable that this is a time where NPD actually gave numbers for Hardware and software officially

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_November_2009

 

So you can't realy hide the software numbers as accurate by using the groupings.

For example, on Amazon Super Mario Brothers Wii >   COD 360

Despite NPD Having 360 outselling NSMB Wii by more then double.

 

Also, Wii being above it... etc.

 

Clearly Amazon moved a LOT less COD (Both kinds) then other retail stores.

 

In that list the software isn't remotely in order.

Just a question... it is the launch for CoD:MW2? It is... so look at the October ranking.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2009-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

Voilá... I know MW2 was to be here in October before the launch... and it is #1.

NPD shows everything (including sold by preorders in previous month) in the launch month... Amazon shows the preorder in the month it was made.

I already explained that... launch months you need to account previous preorders to compare with NPD like PS4 in November 2013.

Another example that supports my OP.

The 360 outselling the Mario... same... you have the Limited 360 Modern Warfare 2 bundle in September and October ranking that NPD just counted in November.

Wii above it? Same here... you need to look at the preorder sales in previous months to see that MW2 outsold everything in November.

So what we have for MW2?

August: #37 (preorder for November)
September: #20 (preorder for November)
October:  #1 (preorder for November)
November: #4 (sales in November)

I was tracking Amazon for so much time before make this thread to knows it works I use this example for the OP.


Except that STILL doesn't work.  when you look at the full game list.

Borderlands isn't on the charts for any preorders, yet it's well below where it should be.

 

and it still doesn't work with the consoles.



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crissindahouse on 26 April 2014

And now do the same with all the stuff which doesn't represent reality. I mean, you do it only with the stuff where it works but you could do the exact same thing to "prove" that Amazon charts don't work to represent the real situation.

The chance that something which is in front on Amazon is also in front at NPD is pretty obvious. You could do it even in a small store which sells 10 consoles a month and your average chance would be higher to get the real result since every single retailer is one part of the whole market. 

As wider the gap between two consoles in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon will represent the same result and as closer they are in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon charts won't represent the real result.

But I can't really take you serious when you say your "bububut" in so many posts. I think you got that from M.U.G.E.N who did the same all the time.



dsage01 on 26 April 2014

good analysis. tagged.



ethomaz on 26 April 2014
crissindahouse said:

And now do the same with all the stuff which doesn't represent reality. I mean, you do it only with the stuff where it works but you could do the exact same thing to "prove" that Amazon charts don't work to represent the real situation.

The chance that something which is in front on Amazon is also in front at NPD is pretty obvious. You could do it even in a small store which sells 10 consoles a month and your average chance would be higher to get the real result since every single retailer is one part of the whole market.

As wider the gap between two consoles in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon will represent the same result and as closer they are in whole America as bigger the chance that Amazon charts won't represent the real result.

But I can't really take you serious when you say your "bububut" in so many posts. I think you got that from M.U.G.E.N who did the same all the time.

Show me one stuff that didn't work... you you see how hard is to find one.



chapset on 26 April 2014

tagged: we will see if npd april further prove this or not



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

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nitekrawler1285 on 26 April 2014

Seems like the data fits too closely to be an entire coincidence. Even the detractors have had to look at quite a few years of data to try to prove inaccurate instances. I can't wait until April NPD to see if it continues to follow such a trend. Thanks for bringing this to our attention. I would imagine that people on a sales site would be pleased with other reliable ways of estimating demand for the products we all love to talk about.



xmositox on 26 April 2014

At this point it is like beating a dead horse.

If for the rest of the year, Amazon monthly Sales Top 100 order is spot on, even if it is wrong one month, that is a lot more accurate then what VCG has been so far this year.

For those that do not want to follow it, don't. I am sure that the first time that Amazon is off within the next year, you will bring it to everyone's attention.



DonFerrari on 26 April 2014

kowenicki siding against ethomaz is just a bonus on this.

And I can accept that MLB isn't a system seller, lets all accept that Titanfall wasn't one either... unless of course Knack or stock is PS4 system seller for the year.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Machiavellian on 27 April 2014
ethomaz said:
Machiavellian said:
I am sorry but using 4 months of data to make such claims is really flawed. Maybe you should wait a year before making such statements.

4 months of data is 100% of the both console in the market.

I just didn't put November in the OP because the launch preorders are post in the previous months in Amazon... so PS4 won every single month in 2013 but in November Xbone won when PS4 can't be more purchare at Amazon since September or August.

So after the preorder period... the sales are really reflected the ranking.

4 Months of data for this type of conclusion would not stand any real sciencetific evaluation.  Really what you want to say is that you want to believe Amazon instead of doing your due dillgence.  



kirby007 on 27 April 2014

Just looks like NPD just uses amazon data



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