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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 sales double Xbox One

 

Can PS4 outsell XO 2:1?

Yes 573 76.71%
 
No 112 14.99%
 
I don't care 62 8.30%
 
Total:747
vivster on 24 April 2014
DucksUnlimited said:

I'm not sure if you noticed, but 2.7:1.2 is a bigger gap than 2:1. If the 2014 ratio is maintained, they will eventually reach a 2:1 ratio in overall sales.

Yes it's 2.25 which is significantly more. I wouldn't extrapolate from these numbers as it's still early into this year and we had  a system seller on each side to throw off the numbers. A lot of the PS4 numbers come from the launch demand from last year which helped it to boost above "natural" levels.



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ethomaz on 24 April 2014

vivster said:

Yes it's 2.25 which is significantly more. I wouldn't extrapolate from these numbers as it's still early into this year and we had  a system seller on each side to throw off the numbers. A lot of the PS4 numbers come from the launch demand from last year which helped it to boost above "natural" levels.

I think you are missing the part that the sales right now it the "natural" level of PS4 demand... 800-900k per month.



Turkish on 24 April 2014
vivster said:
Turkish said:
vivster said:

So what?
The PS4 needs more than that to meet its goal. Doing 2:1 in one year doesn't erase the year before that. Even if it stays at 2:1 throughout this year(which I don't believe) it would still not be 2:1 overall. It's getting even harder in 2015 and if the X1 doesn't tank completely it will never happen.


Actually the PS4 needs another 1.5m to double Xbone sales 2:1, Im sure that PS4 will manage that this year, I even think PS4 will double combined Xbone and WiiU sales sometime in 2015 or 2016 at the latest.

That math doesn't add up. The PS4 doesn't just need to sell 1.5 million more than X1 from now on. They will also have to additionally double the number of all X1 sales while catching up those 1.5 million.
by the time they get close to 2:1 it will be holidays and I absolutely doubt that PS4 will outsell X1 2:1 in November and December. Which will in fact push them back in their schedule again. And then there is Halo. Yes The PS4 will have its system sellers too but none of those are Halo.


What does this mean. At its current rate, PS4 is doing 50k more than Xbone on vgchartz, if the PS4 keeps outselling the Xbone by 50k, it will double the Xbone in 30 weeks.

Halo 2 HD will be a big system seller? I doubt it, the first one sold 2.2m, and 2 likely comes to 360 too.

With all of its marketing, and 449 bundles, Titanfall couldnt prevent Xbone being outsold by 60k in its stronghold. I doubt Halo 2 will be bigger than Titanfall.



DucksUnlimited on 24 April 2014
vivster said:
DucksUnlimited said:

I'm not sure if you noticed, but 2.7:1.2 is a bigger gap than 2:1. If the 2014 ratio is maintained, they will eventually reach a 2:1 ratio in overall sales.

Yes it's 2.25 which is significantly more. I wouldn't extrapolate from these numbers as it's still early into this year and we had  a system seller on each side to throw off the numbers. A lot of the PS4 numbers come from the launch demand from last year which helped it to boost above "natural" levels.

Hence why I said "if" in bold.



Dark_Feanor on 24 April 2014
ethomaz said:

vivster said:

Yes it's 2.25 which is significantly more. I wouldn't extrapolate from these numbers as it's still early into this year and we had  a system seller on each side to throw off the numbers. A lot of the PS4 numbers come from the launch demand from last year which helped it to boost above "natural" levels.

I think you are missing the part that the sales right now it the "natural" level of PS4 demand... 800-900k per month.

You are a funny guy man, with our out of the @$$ assumptions and neologism.

What the hell is "'natural' level of demand"? 

You mean that the PS4 will always sell 800-900k a month... for ever?  Not increasing or decreasing?

Where did you get it from?

You realise that those are the same numbers the PS3 was doing back in 2009,2010, 2011 and 2012... Is that what you mean by "natural demand"?



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ethomaz on 24 April 2014

Dark_Feanor said:

You are a funny guy man, with our out of the @$$ assumptions and neologism.

What the hell is "'natural' level of demand"?

You mean that the PS4 will always sell 800-900k a month... for ever?  Not increasing or decreasing?

Where did you get it from?

You realise that those are the same numbers the PS3 was doing back in 2009,2010, 2011 and 2012... Is that what you mean by "natural demand"?

Except holidays period... this is the real level of PS4 demand... it won't decrease until some good years... big releases will put it over the "natural" and the holidays way way over.

BTW the best PS3 year have avg. sales per month (excluding holidays period) below what PS4 is doing montly today.



Trunkin on 24 April 2014

In what timeframe? This year, maybe, but unlikely.



vivster on 24 April 2014
Turkish said:
vivster said:

That math doesn't add up. The PS4 doesn't just need to sell 1.5 million more than X1 from now on. They will also have to additionally double the number of all X1 sales while catching up those 1.5 million.
by the time they get close to 2:1 it will be holidays and I absolutely doubt that PS4 will outsell X1 2:1 in November and December. Which will in fact push them back in their schedule again. And then there is Halo. Yes The PS4 will have its system sellers too but none of those are Halo.


What does this mean. At its current rate, PS4 is doing 50k more than Xbone on vgchartz, if the PS4 keeps outselling the Xbone by 50k, it will double the Xbone in 30 weeks.

Halo 2 HD will be a big system seller? I doubt it, the first one sold 2.2m, and 2 likely comes to 360 too.

With all of its marketing, and 449 bundles, Titanfall couldnt prevent Xbone being outsold by 60k in its stronghold. I doubt Halo 2 will be bigger than Titanfall.

Ok, a little calculation example for you. Hypothetical numbers because I don't want to look up the real numbers.

X1 5million, PS4 8.5million, so PS4 needs 1.5 million to make it double.

Now the PS4 sells 150k each week while the X1 does only 100k.

Forward 30 Weeks

X1 now has 8 million and PS4 has 13 million. Does this look like double to you? Why doesn't it add up? Because not only does the PS4 have to close the 1.5 million gap but it also has to keep up the status quo of 2:1. That means to reach the double in 30 weeks the PS4 needs to double the X1 PLUS 50k every week... 250k.

 8.5million + 250k*30 = 16 million.

And of course I'm talking about Halo 5 which I expect to hit early next year around the time of UC4.



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Dark_Feanor on 24 April 2014
ethomaz said:

Dark_Feanor said:

You are a funny guy man, with our out of the @$$ assumptions and neologism.

What the hell is "'natural' level of demand"?

You mean that the PS4 will always sell 800-900k a month... for ever?  Not increasing or decreasing?

Where did you get it from?

You realise that those are the same numbers the PS3 was doing back in 2009,2010, 2011 and 2012... Is that what you mean by "natural demand"?

Except holidays period... this is the real level of PS4 demand... it won't decrease until some good years... big releases will put it over the "natural" and the holidays way way over.

BTW the best PS3 year have avg. sales per month (excluding holidays period) below what PS4 is doing montly today.


VGChartz says otherwise...



Danman27 on 24 April 2014

IF you eliminate the first month of sales for both consoles, the ps4 has averaged more than 2:1, so yeah.