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Forums - Sales Discussion - "The Console Market is Shrinking" is a BS Statement

 

The console market is

shrinking 98 43.36%
 
staying the same 52 23.01%
 
growing 74 32.74%
 
Total:224

It mainly came from PC community who envy console exclusives. Console gaming will last a lot more than people think. I am hearing this BS since 90s.



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Shaunaka said:
DD_Bwest said:
before last gen systems were far more reliable, just think how many people are on their 3rd or 4th ps3/x360. i think within the main markets the amount of gamers is shrinking..

but if you add emerging markets to the mix, i think the potential for WW sales can grow


The 360 is such a special case that it need not be adressed. The PS3 failed more than the PS2!? Really? Can you prove it? My launch PS2 broke, but my brother's launch PS3 still works, so extrapolating from that I'd have to say that you're 100% wrong. Now, that data is of course skewed and unreliable, but its better than yours.

Even if HALF the 360s aren't counted (FORTY MILLION), then the market still grew, so you really are grasping at straws.

i based it on personal experience and freinds,  i dont know one person who is on their first 7th gen console.   im on my 3rd ps4, my buddy is on his second,  another had his die a few weeks ago.   and thats not touching RROD for the xbox.       im not trying to grasp at straws and i hope the market does well, i just dont see it as big as it was..   where i live atleast.

and thats not taking the wii into consideration because that was a special case with the "casuals" that may never be reclaimed. (although i hope vr can do just that)



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KBG29 said:
 I think 100M PS4 and XBO's in the US alone is a very possible scenario. Extend that world wide and the two of them alone could sell nearly 400 million units.


LADIES AND GENTLEMEN WE HAVE A WINNER!

Sweet Jesus man!

This other dude made a thread: "My bold predictions", but you're just taking a dump on his face with that! BOOKMARKED!



FarleyMcFirefly said:
JoeTheBro said:
Wii U: 30 million

XBONE: 60 million

PS4: 200 million


That looks like growth to me.


seriously?



Why? Do you expect more?

If this is what it takes to be an analyst then i'd be up to be one. Making bullshit predictions and getting paid for it sounds awesome.



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Mummelmann said:

It could be because the handheld market is set to have about 40% or so of the previous generation's hardware sales and that there were/are three contenders nudging the 85-100 million goal post in home consoles in the 7th gen whereas the 8th is set to have one sell about 20 million and another possibly 60-70 and with the leader slowing down quickly at present.
The Japanese home console market is collapsing and the smartphone/tablet/social/browser tsunami has washed everything else away there.

It's clear as day that we're facing a major contraction, unless OP is suggesting that we will somehow see another generation of 530-540 million or so total consoles sold with a crawling Vita and Wii U, an xbox that isn't setting the charts ablaze, a 3DS that is set crash early and fall short of 50% of its predecessor's sales and a PS4 that is slowing down to a pace far below the Wii.
Even if the One and PS4 sold 150 million each, that would still leave the total console market far short of the required numbers to prevent a contraction.
Heck; even if the Wii U, One and PS4, all three of them, sold 150 million units each; the 530-540 million mark could prove somewhat elusive.

OP: people are saying that it's shrinking because it is shrinking. It's not a huge mystery.

Look, no-one has EVER suggested that the growth won't slow down. The planet is only so big.

But you are saying that it's SHRINKING. There's no proof for that. Whatsoever.



Mystro-Sama said:
If this is what it takes to be an analyst then i'd be up to be one. Making bullshit predictions and getting paid for it sounds awesome.


That's a distasteful comment not backed up by anything except bitter resentment.

I'm not making any predictions. I'm saying a common statement is not backed up by data. Please tell me why my gen-over-gen growth graph is flawed. It's as simple and straightforward as can be.

I'm not talking about a possible saturation point based on the growth of potential buyer groups in the world. I'm not talking about World War 3 causing a depression. I'm not talking about the advent of devices that displaces consoles in the living room. I'm talking about the actual sales of consoles every gen. And if you were to look into it then you'd see that people are buying more games now than ever before. So don't come in here and be negative without at least backing up your opinion (which is what exactly!?) with anything. Because people like that don't get the enviable jobs.



KingdomHeartsFan said:

Your ignoring 90% of what I said...also I never said Wii numbers don't count or a ton of 360s were replace etc.   Your grouping me up with other people when were not even saying the same things.  Also you haven't even given your predictions for what this gen will sell, you should sit down and actually think about it.  


The only worthwhile point you have is that people won't buy two consoles because they wouldn't want to pay twice for the online services.



DD_Bwest said:

i based it on personal experience and freinds,  i dont know one person who is on their first 7th gen console.   im on my 3rd ps4, my buddy is on his second,  another had his die a few weeks ago.   and thats not touching RROD for the xbox.       im not trying to grasp at straws and i hope the market does well, i just dont see it as big as it was..   where i live atleast.

and thats not taking the wii into consideration because that was a special case with the "casuals" that may never be reclaimed. (although i hope vr can do just that)


My brother still has his launch PS3 (loud as a steamengine that one). I still have my launch 360 (believe it or not). That might be true, but even if you subtract FORTY MILLION consoles from last gen then STILL there was growth. Do you want to subtract more!?



cpg716 said:
Except both the PS4 and Xbox One are tracking about 60% ahead of PS3 and X360. So if that continues.. even if the Wii U doesn't do huge.... the PS4/X1 numbers should make up for it.. UNLESS there is a dead drop over the next few years.

What goes up must come down. It's the arrogance of ignorance that makes people believe the party will go on forever, which it never does.

There are excellent explanations that do not involve gen 8>gen7. First and foremost being that PS3 was a major disappointment for many people mostly due to price, PS4 otoh is an amazingly powerful and cheap console which captured the attention of gamers. And xbox 360 had a very low fan base going in and was also quite pricey, just not as pricey as PS 3. Xb one launched for the same price as 360 which taking inflation into account is a lower price in relative terms and it has a much expanded fanbase. So with just these things in mind one can see why this gen started off very strong for these consoles but probably won't translate into a collective >160 million in sales.

But even if PS4bone does manage 160 million wiiU won't make up the difference. 

IMO gen 7 was artificially inflated with one generation casuals and we will see a return to a more core audience meaning gen 6 is the generation gen 8 is most likely to reach in sales.



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