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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Major Nelson: 'PS4 vs X1 a marathon, not a sprint, we know what we have to do'

Finally some good PR out of Microsoft. That's the attitude I like, acknowledging the success of others and vowing to do all they can to stay competitive. In the end, it's better for gamers if both companies have to put up their A game to stay ahead.



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TruckOSaurus said:
Finally some good PR out of Microsoft. That's the attitude I like, acknowledging the success of others and vowing to do all they can to stay competitive. In the end, it's better for gamers if both companies have to put up their A game to stay ahead.



That's you on the pic ?



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Nem said:
walsufnir said:
Lower the price, otherwise they have no chance. EU they will never win except UK, Japan is also lost since day 1.
People mostly buy because of price.


Let me add to that, that its also not helping them one bit to be almost one year without releasing on many other markets. Do you know what is happening? PS4 is hogging the shelf space for games (tanking from the PS3 and 360). Its gonna be difficult for the X1 to come out of its shadow.

 

Thanks for educating me. The question is, will MS still get the 3rd party games that are important?  If they still get 3rd party and a bunch of exclusives it will still be an interesting gaming machine if the price is right. Sadly PS4 will dominate, yes, but this doesn't mean Xbone will be a bad decision and that it will be a financial disaster for MS.



As long as they stick to "games, games, and more games", the X1 won't lag too far from PS4.



They have a point in English Speaking Countries (US, UK, Canada, Australia...) but there is no way in hell they can win in the rest of the world by far and large (there may be some exceptional small markets). The situation is so dire that the ratio for the rest of the world will be no better than 1-to-2 and probably worse (1-to-3). Only in US and similar countries, they have a chance to go near 50% but almost zero chance to go past 50%. Not gonna happen.

The history tells this,
The prices tells this,
The gamer reaction tells this,
The statistics tells this,
The developers tell this,
The trends tell this.
The estimates tell this.

No denying all that. Overall, yes this is a marathon, as it always is, there is hardly any case that a console can turn things around on such an equal footing. Yes, it is also true that PS3 was subject to a harsh start but they were late and they had a massive fan base and still suffered a huge drop in adoption (PS2 : 70% market share, and 140 million or so consoles sold). A similar (maybe not as drastic) fate awaits XB1; they are obliged to go thru a similar drop in market share and somewhat moderately in sales.

For more info, see my estimates, technically detailed and explained...

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles and Analysis of the Market
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167458&page=1



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Better flip some more switches.



Aerys said:



This, PS4 sells thankts to trust about having a lot of good first party games, japanese games until the end and even after.


X1 doesnt sell also because a lot of gamers was legitimately disappointed by the last  3 years of almost nothing on 360


This is a bold thesis about 160 million of gamers and their minds. Hardcore gamers are interested in first party, yes, but look at the sales of first party games and consider the bundles from these games.

Most games sold are 3rd party. It's especially the price that is making the difference currently.



Aerys said:
TruckOSaurus said:
Finally some good PR out of Microsoft. That's the attitude I like, acknowledging the success of others and vowing to do all they can to stay competitive. In the end, it's better for gamers if both companies have to put up their A game to stay ahead.



That's you on the pic ?

Sadly, no. I'm beautiful but not THAT beautiful.



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Of course it's a marathon. Microsoft learned that the hard way by finishing last in the previous race.
And it's tough to run a marathon against a lean and mean competitor getting supportevery step if the way, with yourself carrying the excess baggage of Kinect, price and graphics, getting tripped up by DRM, and then withholding refreshments 20 miles into the race.
That's a sure fire way to limp to the finish line and faint in front of the ribbon.



walsufnir said:

 

Thanks for educating me. The question is, will MS still get the 3rd party games that are important?  If they still get 3rd party and a bunch of exclusives it will still be an interesting gaming machine if the price is right. Sadly PS4 will dominate, yes, but this doesn't mean Xbone will be a bad decision and that it will be a financial disaster for MS.


I'm pretty sure there is no return at this point in europe (unless they have a massive price cut). Remember when the PS3 came one year after the 360 and over priced? Well, thats what is happening in the remaining markets MS didnt launch on. Except maybe a bit worse as the PS4 is selling and gaining shelf space at a crazy pace.