Shadow1980 said:
Zero999 said:
probably bellow 5k untill relevant things release.
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The Wii U only dropped below 5k twice in Japan prior to October 2013 when they were on the verge of new bundles. You really are convinced that Japanese gamers are going to reject the PS4 more than they have the Wii U, aren't you? I tell you what. Let's have a friendly little bet, one Nintendo fan to another. In fact, let's make it a two-parter. You already have a bet with someone else about Wii U vs. PS4 sales over both system's lifetimes, a bet that will take years to resolve, so let's you and I go more short term:
1) I bet you that the PS4 will sell more this quarter than the Wii U did its first spring quarter. According to Media Create, the Wii U sold 106,041 units in Japan during the April-June quarter last year, an average of 8157 per week. If the PS4 sells more than that MC weeks 14 to 26, I win. If it sells less, you win. The loser has to put "I bet [winner's name] that the PS4 would sell [more/less] in Q2 2014 than the Wii U did in Q2 2013. I lost," into to their signature for a month.
2) I bet you that the PS4 will sell more in its first 13 months than the Wii U did. I'm choosing 13 months instead of a year so both systems will have both had a holiday season in addition to their launch period. Of course, Japanese trackers go by weeks, not months like the NPD does, so let's go with 57 weeks, which is a year and five weeks. According to MC, the Wii U sold 1,576,701 units from launch to the week ending Jan. 5, 2014. If the PS4 sells more than that by the week ending March 29, 2015, I win, and if it doesn't, you win. The loser has to put "I bet [winner's name] that the PS4 would sell [more/less] in its first 13 months than the Wii U did. I lost," only this time they have to keep it in their sig for three months.
And to make things more interesting, if either one of us loses both of those, they must voluntarily subject themselves to a temporary ban, say, one day for every 10,000 units difference between the PS4 and Wii U at the end of their 57th sales week. We'll round to the nearest ten-thousand. So, if by the week ending March 29, 2015 the PS4 beats the Wii U in launch-aligned sales by, say, 47,500 units, you get banned for five days. If the PS4 is trailing the Wii U by 241,000 units, I get banned for 24 days. Once their ban is up, then the three months of declaring one's loss of part 2 begin.
Sound like a deal? Note that you have to agree to the whole thing, not just one part. The offer expires when next week's MC & Famitsu numbers come out, that way neither of us can decide to bail if the PS4 does better or worse than the other was expecting. Take it or leave it.
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