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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - when will Wii U pass 7m?

 

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End of April (really?) 23 2.58%
 
End of May 61 6.83%
 
End of June 171 19.15%
 
End of July 133 14.89%
 
End of August 141 15.79%
 
End of September 99 11.09%
 
End of October 58 6.49%
 
End of November 43 4.82%
 
End of December 78 8.73%
 
Later 86 9.63%
 
Total:893

September is the time sales pick up, so probably there.
MK8 will surely sell some hardware, but if you're a Mario fan you should already have the console.
SM3DWorld and especially Donkey Kong showed that many Nintendo fans already bought the console near WiiU launch, because they knew that these Nintendo games would follow eventually. (Titanfall for XboxOne was a similar case too)



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ICStats said:

September-ish.

Pre-orders for MK8 less than 1/3 of Watch Dogs PS4 not looking good, but better than SM3DW.



MK8 didn't get delayed for 7 months from its original release date though like WD did. MK8s bump from peorders to first week sales could be way higher than WDs



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

ICStats said:

September-ish.

Pre-orders for MK8 less than 1/3 of Watch Dogs PS4 not looking good, but better than SM3DW.


Not sure if you noticed, but most Nintendo games are not pre-order whores like a lot of other modern "AAA" game releases that, by the way, pre-order so much because Gamestop employees are paid to push pre-orders constantly. They do not, however, seem to bother much pushing preorders for most Nintendo games.

However, in spite of lower pre-order numbers, if you also haven't noticed, an awful lot of big Nintendo franchises tend to wind up selling very well, and usually have "long legs" as the phrase goes, as well.



DevilRising said:
ICStats said:

September-ish.

Pre-orders for MK8 less than 1/3 of Watch Dogs PS4 not looking good, but better than SM3DW.


Not sure if you noticed, but most Nintendo games are not pre-order whores like a lot of other modern "AAA" game releases that, by the way, pre-order so much because Gamestop employees are paid to push pre-orders constantly. They do not, however, seem to bother much pushing preorders for most Nintendo games.

However, in spite of lower pre-order numbers, if you also haven't noticed, an awful lot of big Nintendo franchises tend to wind up selling very well, and usually have "long legs" as the phrase goes, as well.

Agreed, I'm aware of that.

In the context of this thread, the point is expect slow and steady sales, not 1 million console bump by July.



My 8th gen collection

No you are right. I was thinking about it and realized my error. It will easily hit 7 million this year. 



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I voted for end of July



ICStats said:

Agreed, I'm aware of that.

In the context of this thread, the point is expect slow and steady sales, not 1 million console bump by July.


Agreed, at the very least July. I do think it will get a bigger imediate bump than some seem to think though, because most people just seem to go out and buy Nintendo games when they launch, instead of preordering. The first month will be very telling, either way.



At the rate It's going, a while. But with bundles, games, and price drops take into account I'd say about 4 months.



So how big of a bump do people think MK8 will give in the first month from it's release? I would think 100~200k.

Maybe I am looking in the wrong place but looks MK Wii didn't make a bump at all in Wii sales in it's release. Actually sales were down in Apr/May 08 than Mar 08.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2008&end_year=2009&console=

The weekly changes are more interesting to look at:

Week of Mar 1st 2008

Wii 364,846 (+42%)
Wii 236,802 (-35%)
Wii 323,737 (+37%)
Wii 428,612 (+32%)
Wii 273,818 (-36%)
Wii 372,796 (+36%)
Wii 301,517 (-19%)
Wii 394,830 (+31%)  [MKW in EU+JP]
Wii 315,236 (-20%)
Wii 645,420 (+105%) [MKW in US]
Wii 375,147 (-42%)
Wii 301,260 (-20%)
Wii 558,375 (+85%)  [Wii Fit in US]
Wii 376,143 (-33%)
Wii 333,863 (-11%)

MKW release in JP+EU was almost lost in the noise.  US had a 300% bump in release week, and quik drop off.



My 8th gen collection

ICStats said:

So how big of a bump do people think MK8 will give in the first month from it's release? I would think 100~200k.

Maybe I am looking in the wrong place but looks MK Wii didn't make a bump at all in Wii sales in it's release. Actually sales were down in Apr/May 08 than Mar 08.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2008&end_year=2009&console=

The weekly changes are more interesting to look at:

Week of Mar 1st 2008

Wii 364,846 (+42%)
Wii 236,802 (-35%)
Wii 323,737 (+37%)
Wii 428,612 (+32%)
Wii 273,818 (-36%)
Wii 372,796 (+36%)
Wii 301,517 (-19%)
Wii 394,830 (+31%)  [MKW in EU+JP]
Wii 315,236 (-20%)
Wii 645,420 (+105%) [MKW in US]
Wii 375,147 (-42%)
Wii 301,260 (-20%)
Wii 558,375 (+85%)  [Wii Fit in US]
Wii 376,143 (-33%)
Wii 333,863 (-11%)

MKW release in JP+EU was almost lost in the noise.  US had a 300% bump in release week, and quik drop off.


IT would be better to compare to the gamecube



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m