You are overplaying something that wouldn't be good. DS did not have a 150 Million install base when Diamond and Pearl came out, anyhow. That's hardly a point in this discussion. I would also like to point out that by the end of the year the 3DS' install base won't be 43 Million, it will grow. Just like how X/Y's sales will grow. In this case, you aren't looking at the entire picture.

Anyhow, your made up analytics about games having bad drops in their second year doesn't apply to such a large IP like Pokemon, and one published by Nintendo at that. You know, the "kings" of legs. The only core Pokemon title that had a horrendous 90% drop was Black and White, and that game hardly represents the other entries into the series with it's selling habits. 

You still have too high of expectations, And DS was pulling 30mil a year at that time so yes. Userbase does matter alot, 3ds wont be anywhere near 100mil lifetime.

Pokemon XY sold 10.5mil-11mil Year 1.

Year 2 sales should be between 2mil-3mil. And those are good sales. Look at GBA Sales and you can easily see XY is doing fantastic, especially in todays market, unless you forgot tablets/smartphones?

Pokemon Ruby/Sappire sold about 16mil with an 81mil userbase which came from the original pokemon games.

Edit: Looking at your expectations, XY should do at least 4mil, putting your estimates between 4mil-5mil. That would make total lifetime sales at around 15.5mil-16.5mil :-/ You expect 15months of WW sales to hit higher than BW's Lifetime??? (on a userbase nowhere near half of DS)

You said X/Y was going to sell 20 Million or close to it, correct? How can you expect it to get anywhere near that with such horrid second year numbers? It would take forever for it to even pass Diamond and Pearl's total at that point.

Stop bringing up Black/White. It's an outlier in every way, sales-wise.

Edit: I'll be nicer just for you; X/Y must do 3.5 Million this year in order for me to even consider it okay. There you go, I knocked 500k off of my initial expectations of it. 

I never said it was going to do 20mil, i said it has a chance to do it, and this was over a year ago. 

And 3.5mil is still to high for a "consider it ok". Why not make a thread and see who agrees with you (by pointing out both our opinions) and see who people side with more?

In terms of sales by the millions. (2nd Year)

Under 1mil= Terrible

1-2mil= Underperformed

2-3mil= Healthy Sales

3-4mil= Great Performace

4-5mil= Fantastic Sales

5mil+= Unexpected Sales 

So you agree that you overestimated it by a lot, then? What do you think it'll sell lifetime then? You never answered my wall post about that.

And no, I don't need other people's opinions to try to make me feel good about mine. I know people will disagree with me, but those people are just being too easy on X/Y. Below 3.5 Million wouldn't be good.

The atatch rate is on Blue/Red lvl. so its fenomenal

". I know people will disagree with me" Proves my point. Its not cuz they are going to easy, but your expectations are too damn high. 

I did answer your wall post. You asked year 2, not lifetime! Its hard to say but it'll be between 15mil-18mil. Really depends though on multiple factors.

If you want me to answer a specific number then it will be 15.5mil, down from my original 18mil. But of course, this is factoring in 3DS not doing so well with these smartphones/tablets eating up marketshare :-/

15 Million wouldn't be good for a game that was supposed to revive the Pokemon series. Supposed to bring us into a new era of Pokemon.

Also, no, that doesn't prove your point. People will disagree with anything and everything. 

Is 12M shipped (sold to retailers)? or actually sold to customers ? cause VGC seems to be undertracking them by a much more important margin that I thought.

Whhhhhhaaaatttt???? Pokemon Didnt need reviving, XY is just a refreshed and polished installment to pls older fans and bring 3D into the franchise. Who thought of a revival for a franchise that does 15mil every main installment?

Yes people will have many agrees/disagree, but majority will disagree with your opinion. D/P were very successful, and you want to compare XY to that despite not looking at D/P sales rode up DS's Sales (which were doing 28mil-30mil a year at the time).