FF13, I think lifetime sales for SSBB in Japan will be around 2-2.1 million.  FF13 I see at 2.2 million - 2.8 million lifetime sales.

It's a hard call, the better question is though which will sell more world wide?

@GGE

true, I am really curious to see how Brawl does in Others. Nintendo has never been a force in Europe at all until now so the Nintendo nostalgia mascot factor will be lower. The only reason that DD outsold SSBM(WW) is because of others, SSBM only failed to sell a million in others, and DD sold well over a million there.

What I am having trouble getting is the fact people don't seem to understand how much the Japanese market  has changed... When FF12 came out the casual shift was still in its very early stages. Now with the Wii and DS domination, it is full fledge.

Using historical data is very good, but it can be misleading. In the 90's economist could not figure out how the business cycle could remain in an upward swing for a decade. What they were not figuring in was the internet revolution. With the internet revolution of the 90's the economist had bascially throw their historical methods out the window. I am saying something similar has happened in Japan, and it will affect FF13's sales.

I already pointed out why this will not hurt SSBB's sales nearly as much. FF13 may do better WW than 12 or 9, I really don't see it passing 7,8, or 10, but with the western world liking of UBER graphics FF13 may fit it quite well.

SSBB hands down

Smashbros, no doubt

Just consider that Brawl has 1.25m. in Japan. And PS3 has a userbase of 1.95m. there. It has 65% of the userbase of PS3 right now.

I expect Brawl to land at 3~4m in Japan alone. So Brawl.

well... it all depends when FFXIII comes out really. Just by looking at the current install base in japan now there isnt even 2 million users who own japan ps3's now. In addition, I seriously doubt that every person who owns a jap PS3 will buy FFXIII. Also, if you look at the million seller games for ps3 in the japan area there isnt one game close to selling a million in its current install base of less then 2 million. If FFXIII is released and there isnt a drastic change before or during its release then SSBB will definitely outsell FFXIII.

Who thinks that FFXIII will open with less than 1.5 million?

Not easy to say

Wii is now at 5.37m in Japan (5m at Smash launch?)
I expect PS3 to be next to 4 million at the end of the year.

I expect FFXIII to get a similar or better first week than Brawl but worst legs

Brawl: 3 million
FFXIII: 2.5-3 million

Oh, and what do you expect of PS3 hardware when FFXIII arrives?

I am thinking that PS3 hardware will be a 3 million heading into Dec next year. It will be at like 4 million by this time next year.

I have no Idea when FFXIII is coming out, but I do beleive that we will see a 200% bump in hardware the week of FFXIII(there are still alot of Harcore FF fans that are just waiting til it comes out)